Envisioning the 2020 Census (2010) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Planning the 2020 Census: Cost and Quality
2 Planning the 2020 Census: Cost and Quality
Pages 21-58
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 21... ...
This chapter looks at the historical record -- particularly for the post– World War II decennial censuses -- with a focus on broader forces. A lesson we learn from our historical review is that two key drivers -- the costs of the decennial census and the quality of resulting census information -- are the most important areas of concern for a successful census in 2020.
|
From page 22... ...
The 1950 census included at least four important innovations. First, sampling was used much more extensively for collecting the census content: about two-fifths of the 60-odd questions were asked of samples of the population, which presumably contributed to the reduction in real dollar per housing unit costs in 1950 compared with 1940.4 Second, the first mainframe computer (UNIVAC I)
|
From page 23... ...
The effective use of computer technology presumably contributed to the modest reduction in real dollar per housing unit costs in 1960 compared with 1950. 2–A.3 1970–1980: Mailout-Mailback, Computerized Address List, Coverage Improvement, Dual-System Estimation The 1970 census saw the implementation of mailout-mailback technology as we know it today, in which the Census Bureau develops a comput
|
From page 24... ...
. The Census Bureau adopted special coverage improvement programs for the 1970 census to obtain greater accuracy in the population counts because of their use for legislative redistricting and federal fund allocation and the belief that new methods were required to improve coverage given fears of being counted among some population groups, overlooked housing units in multiunit structures, and other factors.
|
From page 25... ...
Perhaps as a consequence of the attention devoted to the adjustment controversy and to refining the postenumeration survey methodology, neither the 1990 nor the 2000 census saw major innovations in census procedures of the magnitude of the use of computerized processing, mailout-mailback enumeration, and expanded coverage improvement programs that were introduced in the 1960–1980 censuses.7 Essentially, the 1990 and 2000 censuses made incremental modifications to previous census procedures; they did not alter the paradigm of the modern census as established in 1980: development and checking of a computerized address list; mailout-mailback; in-person follow-up for nonresponse; coverage improvement operations; 6 Adjusted counts at the national level by age, race, and sex were used to control the esti mates from major household surveys in the decade of the 1990s, including the Current Population Survey, which is the source of official monthly unemployment and annual poverty statistics. 7 However, the 2000 census was the first to capture both name and date of birth from completed census questionnaires, and to use those in matching studies to estimate duplicate census entries.
|
From page 26... ...
From 1960 to 2000, real dollar per housing unit costs increased by over 400 percent. The experiments included in the 1990 and 2000 censuses were limited in scope (see Sections A–5.b and A–6.b)
|
From page 27... ...
The use of such technology was expected to significantly reduce the amount of paper (questionnaires, enumerator timesheets, maps, etc.) and office space required for the census, permit real-time monitoring of census field operations, and reduce census costs compared with paper-and-pencil methods.
|
From page 28... ...
Of course, the effects on completeness of coverage in the 2010 census will not be known until after the census and its associated coverage measurement programs are conducted. 2–B CENSUS QUALITY Perhaps the most critical driver of decennial census planning and execution is the concern that the census achieve as complete coverage of the population as possible, including not only the total number of inhabitants, but also their distribution by state and other geographic areas and their racial and ethnic composition.
|
From page 29... ...
With the exception of 1990, when the net undercoverage rate increased from the previous census, there has been a sustained trend toward more complete coverage of the total population. Whereas the 1940 census had an estimated net undercount rate as high as 5.4 percent, the 2000 census achieved an estimated net undercount rate of practically zero (0.1 percent)
|
From page 30... ...
. 2–B.3 Another Metric: Gross Coverage Errors Undoubtedly, the achievements in reducing estimated net undercount and narrowing the differences between estimated net undercount rates for racial and ethnic groups over the 1940–2000 period are due, in no small measure, to the proactive efforts by the Census Bureau, in cooperation with many public- and private-sector organizations, to improve coverage.
|
From page 31... ...
Because of this continued growth in census costs, it seems highly likely that containing costs -- while maintaining or improving census quality -- will and should be a major driver of 2020 census planning. In the discussion that follows of historical census costs, it is important to note the difficulties in obtaining comparable cost estimates across time.
|
From page 32... ...
. Turning to census costs from 1960 to the present, we focus on the magnitude of estimates of real dollar costs per housing unit, which is the appropriate measure for the modern mail census.
|
From page 33... ...
An analysis of the cumulative cost increases between 1970 and 1990 questioned the effectiveness of about two-thirds (over $1 billion in 2009 dollars) of the added real dollar per housing unit costs, even after taking account of a substantial decline in the mail response rate (from 78 percent in 1980 to 75 percent in 1980 to 65 percent in 1990)
|
From page 34... ...
2–C.2 Life-Cycle Cost of the 2010 Census The latest projections of the anticipated costs of the 2010 census make clear that it will be the most expensive in the nation's history, representing a significant increase in per housing unit costs over the 2000 census. We now review the history of evolving cost estimates of the 2010 census.
|
From page 35... ...
We see no justifiable basis for projecting traditional census costs as a straight line extrapolation of the average increase over the past few decades. We requested from the Census Bureau its current estimated life-cycle costs for the major activities of the 2010 census (for comparative purposes, we also requested comparable category costs for the 2000 census but were not provided with those data)
|
From page 36... ...
828 Local Census Offices (LCOs) 1,301 Field Operations Address Canvassing 386 Group Quarters Advance Visit 17 Group Quarters Enumeration 80 Group Quarters Validation 71 Coverage Measurement 83 Puerto Rico 62 Island Areas MOAs 37 Field Verification 39 Nonresponse Follow-Up 2,744 Vacant/Delete 341 Military 5 Remote Alaska 4 Service-Based Enumeration 41 Transient Night 11 Update Enumerate 108 Update Leave 116 Urban Update Leave 2 Fingerprinting 148 National Processing Center Census Operations 364 Headquarters Staff and All Other 2,986 Life-Cycle Total Costs in Nominal Dollars 12,522 NOTE: Excludes costs for the American Community Survey and the MAF/TIGER Enhancements Program; see text.
|
From page 37... ...
This review prompted the Census Bureau to formalize a set of requirements for the FDCA contract and, in turn, for Harris to provide a "rough order of magnitude" estimate of additional funds needed to meet those requirements. The size of that estimate led then–newly on the job Census Director Steve Murdock in February 2008 to establish an internal task force to evaluate options for the FDCA contract; that task force recommended as its "replan" option that Harris retain authority for developing handheld computers for address canvassing but that the Census Bureau assume authority for a paper-based nonresponse follow-up operation.
|
From page 38... ...
Still, the rough level of detail in Table 2-3 does make clear one basic truth about the cost of census-taking: that the NRFU operation, and the assumptions made about its conduct, is a critical driver of overall census costs. The table also speaks to the complexity of the census as it is currently conducted in terms of staff and space needs; the entries for office space and staff at Census Bureau headquarters and the regional and local census offices constitute over 40 percent of the total costs.
|
From page 39... ...
2–C.4 Coverage and Costs Our historical review has found that census costs will have escalated by more than 600 percent over the period 1960–2010, even after adjusting for inflation and the growth in housing units. We have suggested that a major factor in cost escalation is the efforts by the Census Bureau, supported by Congress and the executive branch, to reduce coverage error to the greatest extent possible.
|
From page 40... ...
2–D ASSESSMENT: TIME TO RETHINK THE CENSUS AND CENSUS RESEARCH If one accepts the premise that cost and quality are two critical factors in the decennial census, then we think that the preceding discussion makes clear the key point that we wish to express in this report: effective planning for the 2020 census must reflect the concept that the cost of conducting the census has grown out of control in recent decades and that increased spending -- alone, and applied unwisely -- is unlikely to radically increase the quality of the census. In beginning to conceptualize the 2020 census, we think it appropriate to take as a precept that an incremental approach to 2020 census planning is simply untenable.
|
From page 41... ...
and use of caller ID services to screen calls. Thus far, the Census Bureau has been able to hold off major dips in response in its demo graphic surveys, and the decennial census and the ACS are aided in this regard by their mandatory-by-law nature.
|
From page 42... ...
By these points, we do not intend to imply the demise of the mail as the means for the census, but we do suggest that alternative contact strate gies to achieve census participation should be a part of census research in the coming decade. Taken together, these and other dynamics suggest that this is an opportune time to reconsider how the census is taken -- to consider an approach to the 2020 census that is more than an incremental change from the general parameters of census-taking that have been used since 1970.
|
From page 43... ...
To be clear, we do not make this recommendation to suggest cutting census costs simply for the sake of cost-cutting. The objective is a more efficient census that, for example, uses lower-cost options like the Internet and administrative records to supplement or replace expensive follow-up operations without compromising census quality; effective research and improved cost modeling are critical to determining to what extent these efficiencies can be realized.
|
From page 44... ...
: no advance list developed None 1980 • TAR: • TAR Areas (51% of population; mailout-mailback city-style) : – Advance Post Office Check (1979, commercial address lists purchased entire list)
|
From page 45... ...
: 1988, entire list) significant discrepancies recanvassed by census enumerators built list in 1988 – Precanvass (1989, entire list)
|
From page 46... ...
; included group population) : started with 2000 MAF, – Local Update of Census Addresses quarters updated every 6 months with Postal Program: local review of MAF; local • MAF Update/Leave Areas: Service DSF review of Census Bureau feedback; • MAF Non-City-Style or review of local appeals by OMB – Address Canvass (2009, entire list)
|
From page 47... ...
" Campaign distributed to school systems and post (short-form questionnaire printed in offices numerous newspapers for readers to clip • Radio and television advertising and return if they or household coordinated by Advertising Council; PLANNING THE 2020 CENSUS: COST AND QUALITY members believed they had been missed; public service announcements by forms also distributed to local entertainment personalities; voice-over governments for distribution) public service announcements at end of programs on two television networks; recorded spots distributed to radio stations, including Spanish versions • Bureau-appointed "public information specialists" in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, and Los Angeles; Commerce Department publicity personnel in four other cities 47
|
From page 48... ...
, business service organizations and labor groups manager focus (promoting employee beginning in July 1979 response) , and enumerator • Census Bureau publicity office contacted recruitment trade associations to encourage them to – Print media campaign included communicate census messages, including outdoor posters and transit cards, American Society of Association including posters in about a dozen Executives and Food Marketing Institute languages; Census Bureau publicity • Partnership with selected major office contacted 75 top cartoonists to businesses, including five largest grocery encourage them to use census themes chains, General Cinema Corporation, in editorial cartoons and comic strips and Goodyear – Radio and television campaign • Outreach to members of Congress to included Spanish-language spots and convey census messages and to about 44 celebrity public service encourage them to tape radio and announcements television appeals for census • Broadcasters Census Committee of '80 participation (station owners and managers)
|
From page 49... ...
emphasized ability to call telephone assigned to all regional census centers • Four minority advertising firms assistance line) • Concerted effort on "census as recruited by Advertising Council to • "Thank You America" program: news" -- Census Bureau publicity ofice produce public service announcements certificates of appreciation and plaques active in distributing press releases and and advertisements focused on black, distributed to active individuals and feature articles; effort included intense Hispanic, Asian and Pacific Islander, and organizations; direct "thank you" publicity on S-Night operations Puerto Rican communities message also included in mailing of final • Mayors' cooperation program: • Broadcasters Census Committee of '90 population counts to local governments publicized visits by high-level Bureau established by National Association of staff to 35 mayors Broadcasters to encourage support and • Government Promotion Handbook sent broadcast of census messages in to all local governments to encourage electronic media; differed from 1980 formation of complete count version by including radio managers as committees well as television • Census Education Project on larger scale • Efforts to secure pro bono ad slots and than 1980; teaching kit sent to all segments on major cable networks as elementary and secondary schools, well as broadcast networks PLANNING THE 2020 CENSUS: COST AND QUALITY aimed at grades 4–12; Bureau also • Publicized "kickoff " events for publicity supported teacher training workshops campaign in various ethnic communities • Public Housing Initiative: working with in February and March 1990 local public housing authorities, residents of public housing complexes were sought for outreach and to work as urban update/leave enumerators • Information booklet mailed to almost 400,000 churches • Work with National Head Start Initiative to promote message placement and encourage Head Start families and staff to seek work as census takers 49
|
From page 50... ...
• "Census 2000 Road Tour" included hired to maintain partnerships with about 2,000 stops at community events local governments and community organizations – Supported creation of complete count committees • Census in the Schools (K-12) • Kits distributed to Head Start and adult citizenship and literacy training centers • Direct mail campaign included multiple cues and reminders (e.g., advance letter, reminder/"thank you" postcards)
|
From page 51... ...
1970 and continuing to present, • List/enumerate (census enumerators replacing St. Paul with Kansas City, KS)
|
From page 52... ...
• 12 regional census centers (12 located in • Reminder postcard 1 week after • Update List/Leave (census enumerators regional office cities, plus temporary questionnaire delivery (in delivered addressed questionnaires and center in San Francisco) mailout-mailback and Update List/Leave updated list; respondents mailed back)
|
From page 53... ...
• Mailout-mailback Conversion to Update • 520 local offices • User-friendly optical-scanner-readable List/Leave and Urban Update List/Leave • Suitland headquarters questionnaire (originally designated for mailout, • National Processing Center • Reminder postcard 2 weeks after census enumerators delivered addressed (Jeffersonville, IN) questionnaire delivery (in questionnaires and updated list; • 3 contractor-operated data capture mailout-mailback and Update List/Leave respondents mailed them back)
|
From page 54... ...
• 12 regional census centers areas) • Urban Update List/Leave (designed for • 520 local offices • User-friendly optical-scanner-readable urban areas with lots of P.O.
|
From page 55... ...
efforts • Whole Household Usual Home failed Elsewhere Check -- follow-up of questionnaires where question asking whether "everyone here is staying only temporarily and has a usual home elsewhere" was answered in affirmative and additional home address(es) listed on back on form • Personal visit follow-up of cases where telephone follow-up failed 1990 • Whole Household Usual Home • Follow-up for missing information Elsewhere Check (as in 1980)
|
From page 56... ...
-- Postal Service checked enumerator address lists in conventionally enumerated areas of 16 Southern states; census enumerators followed up sample of missed addresses; results used to impute housing units and people into the census based on postal review of addresses listed by enumerators in conventional enumeration areas 1980 • NRFU (mailback areas) -- 3 visits before going to Last Resort; conducted in two waves: – "Followup 1" (April 16–planned end on May 13)
|
From page 57... ...
• Coverage Improvement Follow-Up (CIFU) -- Revisit of addresses added in Update/Leave for which no questionnaire was mailed back; New Construction LUCA Program addresses; blank mail returns; late Postal Service Delivery Sequence File address additions • Field Verification -- Field check of various addresses that were not resolved after CIFU • Ad Hoc Master Address File (MAF)
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.