Envisioning the 2020 Census (2010) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 3-14
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From page 3... ...
In addition, census information is used to allocate hundreds of billions of dollars of federal funds to states and localities; as the basis for postcensal population estimates for states, counties, and cities; to support federal, state, and local government program planning; to provide sampling frames and population weights for household surveys; and to provide denominators for such vital statistics as birth and death rates by age, gender, race, and ethnicity. To address these information needs, the Census Bureau is preparing to conduct the nation's 23rd decennial census.
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From page 4... ...
leading to a 2020 census design that controls costs, maintains quality, and adapts to major social and technological changes. An effective research and development strategy for the 2020 census should keep a goal of containing costs while maintaining quality; it should also recognize that new technical advances may not only reduce costs, but also drive them up, so that research and effective cost modeling are necessary to determine how best to use such advances for the most cost-effective census.
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From page 5... ...
Underlying this accretion and the failure to achieve major steps forward on a timely basis, such as the nonresponse follow-up automation initiative, is a largely incremental approach to census design and a research and development program that is often unfocused and ineffective. Census Quality The overall quality of the census enumeration using the current mailout/mailback methodology has improved between 1970 and 2000, to the point at which major continued improvement is unlikely.
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From page 6... ...
households may opt not to receive ordinary mail or may ignore much or all of it. It is also likely that administrative records will provide timely, high-quality, and inexpensive information that would be a useful input to a variety of census operations.
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From page 7... ...
To be clear, we do not make this recommendation to suggest cutting census costs simply for the sake of cost-cutting. The objective is a more efficient census that, for example, uses lower cost options like the Internet and administrative records to supplement or replace expensive follow-up operations without compromising census quality; effective research and improved cost modeling (see below)
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From page 8... ...
These tools include an improved, transparent cost model of census operations and well-documented data from all 2010 census operations in formats suitable for research and evaluation. Recommendation 3.3: In order to provide early indications of the costs of competing visions for the 2020 census and to sup port effective planning throughout the decade, the Census Bu reau should develop and validate a detailed cost model that not only represents the 2010 census, but also accommodates novel approaches to census-taking, including the use of data capture via the Internet and automated telephone systems, the use of handheld devices in nonresponse follow-up, the use of adminis trative record information for some types of nonresponse follow up cases, and innovative mechanisms for reducing the costs of updating the Master Address File between 2010 and 2020.
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From page 9... ...
Recommendation 3.4: The Census Bureau should retain suffi cient input and output data, properly linked and documented, from each 2010 census operation to permit adequate evaluation of the contribution of the operation to census costs and data quality to feed into 2020 census planning. For this purpose, the Census Bureau should either establish an internal group or hire a contractor with database management expertise.
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From page 10... ...
Research should be responsive to operational needs, and, in turn, research findings should play a primary role in informing operational decision making. Necessary steps also include reestablishing the position of Associate Director of Methodology and Standards, reestablishing a strong Center for Survey Methods under that associate director, integrating research across programs and with operational planning, integrating census and ACS research, and renewing and refreshing mechanisms for obtaining outside expert advice.
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From page 11... ...
2020 R&D FOR STAGES OF CENSUS-TAKING The strategic visions developed for the 2020 census will include different combinations of approaches for more cost-effective address list development, initial contact with and response mechanisms for household and group quarters residents, and follow-up operations. The panel suggests targets of opportunity for focused R&D for each of these stages of census-taking.
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From page 12... ...
Research and development should investigate the use of administrative records from government programs to replace more expensive address updating operations in some areas and the use of information on population and housing trends from the ACS and the Census Bureau's population estimates program to target areas in which address canvassing may not be needed. R&D should also investigate the costs and benefits of continuous updating of the MAF with the cooperation of some technologically savvy state and local governments and pilot-test a continuous updating program in selected areas.
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From page 13... ...
To satisfy a goal of a substantial reduction in real dollar per housing unit cost for the 2020 census, the Census Bureau will need not only to test and develop major changes in census operations, but also to examine thoroughly each individual procedure to determine its contribution to census costs and data quality. This exercise will require the detailed, transparent cost modeling recommended above, so that stakeholders can be informed regarding trade-offs between cost savings and possible adverse effects on completeness of census coverage.
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