Envisioning the 2020 Census (2010) / Chapter Skim
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4 Revitalizing Census Research and Development
4 Revitalizing Census Research and Development
Pages 95-114
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From page 95... ...
The fruits of that R&D included such pathbreaking achievements as: • the use of probability sampling in censuses and surveys (first used in the decennial census in 1940) , which dramatically reduced respondent burden and the costs of data collection compared with a complete cen sus, while allowing the collection of detailed information with known error due to sampling; • computerized processing of census returns, begun on a small scale in the 1950 census and fully implemented in the 1960 census, which made it possible to deliver detailed census results on a faster sched ule, improve methods for handling missing data by using "hot decks" instead of "cold decks," and dramatically increase the data products provided to users, including public-use microdata samples, first pro duced from the 1960 census in 1963; • mailout-mailback enumeration, partially implemented in the 1960 census (the mailout portion)
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From page 96... ...
The results of an inadequate and unfocused research infrastructure for the decennial census are evident in the failure to carry out the planned development of handheld technology for nonresponse follow-up in the 2000 census, the failure -- even after several decades of on again, off again effort -- to make significant use of administrative records in the census and household surveys, the failure to use the Internet in the 2010 census or in household surveys (a test of an Internet response option is planned for the ACS) , the failure to adequately evaluate and improve the procedures for updating the Master Address File, the limited and unfocused experiments planned for the 2010 census, and the lack of clearly specified "stretch" goals for plan
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From page 97... ...
Given our charge, we focus on R&D for the decennial census, although many of our comments may apply to R&D for other bureau programs as well. Section 4–A begins by fleshing out what we mean by R&D in the context of a statistical agency followed by a description in Section 4–B of the properties of a successful R&D program for the Census Bureau.
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From page 98... ...
4–B PROPERTIES OF A SUCCESSFUL R&D PROGRAM To be successful, a research and development program for a major statistical agency of the size and scope of the Census Bureau should have the following characteristics: • Research activities related to strategic goals and objectives: In the case of the decennial census, the overarching goals of methodological re search and development are to materially reduce costs and increase (or at least maintain) quality in terms of the coverage of the popula tion and the completeness and accuracy of responses to content items.
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From page 99... ...
Accordingly, the outputs, or evaluation metrics, for each research project need to be carefully specified -- for example, whether a particular test of a handheld device for census-taking is pri marily to assess data quality or operational feasibility or costs or some combination -- and provision made to collect the necessary informa tion in a form that can readily be analyzed. • Appropriate balance between fundamental research and applied methodology: The research program at the Census Bureau needs to emphasize basic studies aimed at establishing general principles for the design of censuses and surveys as much as, if not more than, it emphasizes applied studies designed to determine how these princi ples apply to specific surveys.
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From page 100... ...
. Moreover, substantial development research and testing followed by operational testing will generally be needed for innovations in decennial census design given the hetero geneity of the U.S.
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From page 101... ...
• Consistent use of state-of-the-art experimental design methods: The re search group should identify and follow sound principles and practices for the design of experiments and tests and update them as the state of the art advances; Chapter 3 discusses current deficiencies along these lines in more detail. Fundamentally, as we discuss in Sections 3–B and B–1.c in this report and in our interim and letter reports, census experiments and tests are rarely sized through explicit estimation of the power needed to support the statistical tests that will be used to compare the effects of alternative treatments.
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From page 102... ...
It also means that operational tests and, indeed, full-scale census operations -- for example, nonresponse follow-up or data capture -- should record and store transactions in well-documented formats that researchers can readily access for cost-modeling or evaluating the ef fects of one or another operation on data quality. • Research on implementation and human factors: There is a role in census research for small-scale tests or experiments of potential in novations in methodology, just as there is a need for research that establishes the feasibility of those innovations at a census scale of op erations.
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From page 103... ...
and in part on the experiences of members of our panel in the management and oversight of censuses and complex survey operations. 4–C.1 Leadership It is essential to have someone at the level of top management of a statistical agency who provides overall leadership for the technical side of the agency's work and who can articulate and defend the resources needed for basic research and applied methodology.
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From page 104... ...
The Bureau's applied methodology work is decentralized, so there is no central leadership speaking on its behalf, yet its basic research is centralized and even more cut off from the rest of the Bureau than research tends to be intrinsically (see Box 4-1)
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From page 105... ...
• 1970 -- Associate director for statistical standards and methodology, Joseph Daly, supervises the Statistical Research Division and (as of 1971) a Research Center for Measurement Methods.
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From page 106... ...
is established in the Statistical Standards and Methodology Directorate; PRED is focused on the decennial census and designs the 1998 dress rehearsal and 2000 census experiments and evaluations. • 1994 -- Center for Survey Methods Research (CMSR)
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From page 107... ...
• Decennial Statistical Studies Division -- Reports to assistant director for ACS and decennial census; staff of about 200 people; provides statistical support to the decennial census, including coverage measurement, and to the American Community Survey. • Demographic Statistical Methods Division -- Reports to associate director for demographic programs; staff of about 130 people; provides statistical support (sampling design, weighting, variance estimation, evaluation)
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From page 108... ...
, together with supplementary resources from requests from operational units for additional methodological work. It is essential that there be a sound planning process that ensures that the funding needed to provide R&D support to the top priority basic and applied research projects for the agency as a whole and for particular programs, such as the decennial census, is obtained.
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From page 109... ...
4–D A NEW CENSUS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 4–D.1 Organization and Leadership Consistent with the above discussion, the Census Bureau, as a high priority, should reorganize its basic research and applied methodology functions and how research and applied methods units interact with operational units. The objective should be to ensure that sound methodology pervades census and survey practice and to make sure that research programs are motivated by strategic issues facing the bureau.
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From page 110... ...
If the Census Bureau decides to adopt a centralized R&D model, it should also have line authority for the applied methodology function. If the Census Bureau decides to retain a decentralized structure for applied methodology work, the associate director position should have strong functional authority for the applied methods staff, including input on recruitment, promotion, and training of staff, quality standards, and project priorities.
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From page 111... ...
. Moreover, the subunits of the Statistical Research Division that engage in questionnaire design and measurement research, language and measurement research, questionnaire pretesting for household surveys, and human factors and usability research are no longer headed by a researcher of national reputation.
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From page 112... ...
In addition, the Census Bureau has an opportunity and an obligation to thoroughly integrate decennial census with ACS research. For the first time in census history, the ACS affords a continuous test bed not only for its own needs, but also for the decennial census, covering contact strategies, questionnaire design, data capture technology, and data processing.
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From page 113... ...
more effective use of contracting processes to obtain expert services. 4–D.4 Budgeting for Research A complication for the Census Bureau's decennial census research program is the budget process.
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From page 114... ...
We close this report on directions toward a new vision for the 2020 census by suggesting that national conversations on the nature of the census -- and the research needed to effect real change -- need to take place early, and over the whole decade. Recommendation 4.7: The Census Bureau's planning for the 2020 census, particularly for research in the period 2010–2015, should be designed to permit proper evaluation of significant innovations and alternatives to the current decennial census de sign that will accomplish substantial cost savings in 2020 with out impairing census quality.
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