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Climate Stabilization Targets Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 279-282

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From page 279...
... It is a coupled climate-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity that consists of a zonally averaged dynamic ocean model, a one-layer atmospheric energymoisture balance model, and interactive representations of the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles. CHAPTER 3.2 Table 3.2 and associated discussion in text: This section refers to two theoretical estimates of climate sensitivity carried out using realistic CO2 and water vapor radiative transfer based 279
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From page 280...
... (Pattern scaling gives us a robust geographical pattern of seasonal temperature changes that scales linearly with values of global average temperature.) For each choice of global average temperature change, this will shift uniformly the quantiles of the distribution to the right.
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From page 281...
... The mean and one standard error for each level of warming were approximated from the figure. Local temperature changes were converted to global temperature levels using a value of 1.5°C local per global °C for mid-to-high latitudes and 1.2°C local per global °C for low latitudes.
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From page 282...
... The upper end of the warming is underestimated in this calculation, because the climate feedback should increase when a climate sensitivity higher than that used in the carbon-cycle model is applied, but this effect was not taken into ac count because there was no reliable methodology for doing so within the ensemble of published results. The LTMIP ensemble states results for 1,000 GtC and 5,000 GtC cumulative emissions.
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Key Terms

  • climate sensitivity
  • temperature change
  • local warming
  • global average
  • standard error

  • organic carbon
  • global temperature
  • yield loss
  • climate model
  • carbon cycle

  • average temperature
  • water vapor
  • carbon uptake
  • yield losses
  • cumulative emissions

  • sres scenarios
  • average warming
  • ocean carbon


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