Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability (2010) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 11-20
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From page 11... ...
The committee feels that this report will inform and guide decisions regarding future opportunities in climate research and operational forecasting. Significant challenges remain in formulating and disseminating accurate and useful forecasts at the intraseasonal and interannual timescales.
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From page 12... ...
Both the density differences in the ocean and the action of the wind on the sea surface drive a global, three-dimensional circulation in the ocean that results in spatial and temporal variability in SST. Likewise, solar heating and turbulent heat and moisture fluxes at the ocean and land surfaces drive atmospheric circulations on a wide range of scales from global to local.
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From page 13... ...
asks the committee to: Assess the performance of current prediction systems in relation to the estimated predictability of the climate system on intraseasonal to interannual timescales, and recommend strategies (e.g.,observations, model improvements, and research priorities) to narrow gaps that exist between current predictive capabilities and estimated limits of predictability.
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From page 14... ...
4 Although the World Meteorological Organization has a recommended set of metrics for forecast verification, these have not been applied consistently by modeling and forecast centers. In addition, the WMO estimates of forecast quality may be relevant to the climate prediction community, but may not relate directly to the types of information a decision-maker might need, such as the occurrence of anomalous temperature or precipitation at a more local or regional level, or the occurrence of an extreme event (e.g.
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From page 15... ...
Assess the performance of current prediction systems in relation to the estimated predictability of the climate system on intraseasonal to interannual timescales, and recommend strategies (e.g.,observations, model improvements, and research priorities) to narrow gaps that exist between current predictive capabilities and estimated limits of predictability; and 5.
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From page 16... ...
Current ISI forecast systems, which draw upon observations of the atmosphere and ocean as well as the physical and statistical relationships that describe the coupling between them, can often provide accurate predictions of the SST anomalies associated with ENSO. Figure 1.4 shows the predictions from a number of dynamical and statistical models for the SST anomaly in the equatorial Pacific several months in advance.
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From page 17... ...
Forecast verification -- comparison between observations and forecasts over a specific time period, which typically involves more than one quantitative metric of skill. Ensemble -- a set of dynamical model runs from a single model, or from multiple models, that can be used to make a forecast.
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From page 18... ...
SOURCE: CPC/NCEP/NOAA. Wet and Cold FIGURE 1.3 Patterns of anomalous temperature and precipitation during an El Niño episode for the Northern Hemisphere winter.
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From page 19... ...
Many management decisions regarding water supplies, energy production, transportation, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are made routinely on sub-seasonal, seasonal, or annual schedules. For example, during an El Niño winter, coastal areas in California may experience a heightened risk of flooding caused by an increase in precipitation as well as sea level height, while mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest of the United States may experience less snowfall, reducing subsequent water availability.
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From page 20... ...
Chapter 3 presents the reader with an introductory review of ISI forecasting followed by the committee's understanding of its critical components: observations, statistical models, dynamical models, and data assimilation. The processes for making and disseminating forecasts are also discussed, as well as their use by decision makers.
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