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Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability (2010) / Chapter Skim
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5 Best Practices
Pages 124-128

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From page 124...
... Specifically, four important aspects of Best Practices for the production, reproduction, evaluation, and dissemination of ISI forecasts are presented: public archives of forecast information, forecast metrics, more useful forecast products, and an improved synergy between operational and academic communities. PUBLIC ARCHIVES Transparency and reproducibility are essential for assessing and improving ISI forecast quality and enhancing communication among operational centers, researchers, and users.
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From page 125...
... Similarly, for forecast systems that combine statistical and dynamical prediction techniques, it is important to be able to separate the contributions from each component. METRICS Evaluating ISI forecast quality requires a set of well-defined model performance and forecast metrics that can be applied to current and future prediction systems.
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From page 126...
... MORE USEFUL FORECAST PRODUCTS The promise that climate forecast information may benefit society through improved decisions and climate risk management motivates much of the human and fiscal investments in the research and production of these forecasts. Although it is often assumed that climate forecasts would be used more if they were of better quality, other factors are often cited as equally important, including the retrospective forecast performance, the societal and scientific relevance of the forecast variables and their specificity, and the manner in which the forecast is communicated.
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From page 127...
... ACCELERATED SYNERGY WITH THE RESEARCH COMMUNITY There are too many major science directions for possible improvements of operational systems to be examined and implemented by either the operational centers or the research community alone. Each community has its own strengths and purpose: operational centers excel in creating robust and reliable forecasting systems using state-of-the-art models, observations and data assimilation systems; academic researchers excel in developing new ideas and approaches.
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From page 128...
... 128 Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland) and NCEP, with the intention of having the operational scientists speak at the research centers and the external scientists speak at NCEP, thus fostering cross fertilization between operations and research.
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Key Terms

  • operational centers
  • isi forecast
  • climate prediction
  • forecast information
  • isi forecasting

  • model performance
  • forecast centers
  • performance metrics
  • forecast performance
  • climate forecasts

  • operational prediction
  • forecast variables
  • isi prediction
  • forecast metrics
  • improving isi

  • forecast products
  • isi forecasts
  • useful forecast
  • outside community
  • prediction information

  • data assimilation
  • public archives
  • characterize model
  • multiple metrics
  • complementary strengths

  • annual targeted
  • easy access
  • society realize
  • enhancing communication
  • retrospective forecast


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