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From page 1... ... Summary the goal of weather predcton s to provde nformaton people and organzatons can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance socetal benefits, ncludng protecton of lfe and property, publc health and safety, and support of economc prosperty and qualty of lfe. In economc terms, the benefit of the nvestment n publc weather forecasts and warnngs s substantal: the estmated annualzed benefit s about $31.5 bllon, compared to the $5.1 bllon cost of generatng the nformaton (Lazo et al., 2009) Read the entire page →
From page 2... ... the commttee's vson s that by ~2025, a core group of socal scentsts and meteorologsts wll form a strong, mutu ally benefical partnershp n whch multple areas of scence work together to ensure weather research and forecastng meet socetal needs. Recommendation: The weather community and social scientists should create partnerships to develop a core interdisciplinary capacity for weather-society research and transitioning research to operations, starting with three priority areas: Read the entire page →
From page 3... ... Predictability and the Need for Global Nonhydrostatic Coupled Models Global nonhydrostatc nWP models1 coupled wth ocean and land models are essental as the spatal resoluton of models contnues to ncrease, especally wth grd spacng less than 10 km. Hgh-resoluton nonhy 1 nonhydrostatc nWP models are atmospherc models n whch the hydrostatc assumpton s not made, so that the vertcal momentum equaton s solved. Read the entire page →
From page 4... ... nonhydrostatc global model s crucal to ad dress error growth and better understand the predctablty of global weather systems. Recommendation: Global nonhydrostatic coupled atmosphere–ocean– land models should be developed to meet the increasing demands for improved weather forecasts with extended timescales from hours to weeks. Read the entire page →
From page 5... ... , and hybrd 4DVar and enKF approaches. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Quanttatve precptaton forecasts (QPFs2) Read the entire page →
From page 6... ... Recommendation: To improve the skill of quantitative precipitation forecasts, the forecast process of the National Weather Service should explicitly represent deep convection in all weather forecast models and employ increasingly sophisticated probabilistic prediction techniques. Global and regonal weather forecast models should represent or ganzed deep convecton explctly to the maxmum extent possble, even at resolutons somewhat coarser than 5 km, as may be necessary ntally, n the case of global models. Read the entire page →
From page 7... ... Building on lessons learned, a community-based coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling framework should be sup ported to accelerate fundamental understanding of water cycle dy namics; deliver accurate predictions of floods, droughts, and water availability at local and regional scales; and provide a much needed benchmark for measuring progress. to successfully translate the nvestment n mproved weather and clmate forecasts nto mproved hydrologc forecasts at local and re gonal scales, and meet the pressng socetal, economc, and envron mental demands of water avalablty (floods, droughts, and adequate water supply for people, agrculture, and ecosystems) Read the entire page →
From page 8... ... 8 8 WHen WeAtHeR MAtteRs prortes such as reducton n vulnerablty for dense coastal populatons, and mprovements n forecasts at the scale of flash floods and routnely dsruptve local weather. observatons at the mesoscale are ncreasngly mportant to establshng ntal condtons for global models as resoluton mproves. Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... Federal agences, together wth state, prvate-sector, and nongov ernmental organzatons, should employ mesoscale testbeds for appled research and development to evaluate and ntegrate natonal mesoscale observng systems, networks thereof, and attendant data assmlaton systems as part of a natonal 3D network of networks. INCREASE ATTENTION TO EMERGING WEATHER RESEARCH AND TRANSITIONAL NEEDS several research and R2o needs have come to be recognzed over the past 5 to 10 years as ncreasngly mportant, yet reman n the early stages of understandng or mplementaton. Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... teams of physcal scentsts, socal scentsts, and professonals from user groups wll need to work together to define the needed observatons and mpact parameters. Recommendation: The federal agencies and their state and local gov ernment partners, along with private-sector partners, should place high priority on providing not only improved weather forecasts but also explicit impact forecasts. Read the entire page →
From page 11... ... An extended, multyear perod of contnuous effort, punctuated wth ntensve observng and forecastng perods, s envsoned. Recommendation: The federal government, led by the National Oce anic and Atmospheric Administration, in concert with multiple public 4 ee http://www.census.gov/man/www/popclock.html. Read the entire page →
From page 12... ... Renewable Energy Development the producton of energy from renewable sources -- hydro, bomass, geothermal, muncpal waste, wnd, and solar -- s an ntegral part of the challenge to reduce relance on fossl fuels, acheve a meanngful measure of energy ndependence, and mnmze anthropogenc clmate change. elec trcty generaton from renewable resources represents a small yet rapdly growng fracton that s projected to produce 14 percent of total domestc generaton n 2030. Read the entire page →
From page 13... ... • Wind plant architecture: the desgn of wnd parks and ther power generatng efficency heavly depend on wake nteractons and nterferences among neghborng turbnes, and the effects of local topography. • Operations: Wnd forecasts on the 6- to 48-hour tmescale are mportant for projectng wnd energy producton, but wnd park operatons are also susceptble to "wnd ramp" events -- abrupt, major changes n wnd speed. Read the entire page →
From page 14... ... to be successful, these efforts wll requre effectve collaboratons and partnershps among power system desgners, operators, grd managers, observatonalsts, researchers, forecast ers, and modelers. Recommendation: The effective design and operation of wind and so lar renewable energy production facilities requires the development, evaluation, and implementation of improved and new atmospheric observing and modeling capabilities, and the decision support sys tems they enable. Read the entire page →
From page 15... ... sUMMARY 15 establshed, and emergng ssues dentfied n ths report requre ncreased attenton. ths nvolves undertakng the needed research and transferrng the mportant research results nto operatons. Read the entire page →

From page 1...

... Summary the goal of weather predcton s to provde nformaton people and organzatons can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance socetal benefits, ncludng protecton of lfe and property, publc health and safety, and support of economc prosperty and qualty of lfe. In economc terms, the benefit of the nvestment n publc weather forecasts and warnngs s substantal: the estmated annualzed benefit s about $31.5 bllon, compared to the $5.1 bllon cost of generatng the nformaton (Lazo et al., 2009)

Summary Pages 1-16

Summary
Pages 1-16