National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces Letter Report (2010) / Chapter Skim
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future naval operations and capabilities in the context of potential climate change impacts .
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Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps have recognized the potential impact of climate change on naval forces' missions and have positioned their organizations to make adaptive changes.2 In this regard, the CNO has recognized the linkage between energy use and climate change by establishing two key task forces: the Navy Task Force Energy (charged with formulating a strategy and plans for reducing the Navy's reliance on fossil fuels -- and thus for reducing carbon dioxide emissions, operational energy demands, and, potentially, energy costs) ;3 and the Navy Task Force Climate Change (charged initially with developing a roadmap for Navy actions in the Arctic, and then with addressing longer-term Navy actions regarding global climate change policy, strategy, and plans)
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naval capabilities and potential climate-changerelated operational issues globally, together with the closely related matter of the role of allied partnerships in regard to such global operational issues; (2) climate change impacts on global naval installations; (3)
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naval forces' assistance if climaterelated disasters increase.10 The demand for Navy Construction Battalion capability in support of HA/DR operations is expected to increase in proportion to the operational tempo of U.S.-sponsored international HA/DR operations.11 Likewise, the U.S. Marine Corps should expect that it will be called on as an expeditionary ground force to assist with extreme-weather-related HA/DR events in a changing climate grow another 40 percent, to more than 9 billion people, adding even greater stresses to water and food supplies.
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naval capabilities and global response to projected climate change is the role of allied forces partnerships. The committee received briefings from the National Intelligence Council suggesting that, in addition to the security challenges discussed above, the impact of projected severe climate change on food or water supplies and on disease patterns in certain regions of the world may lead to large-scale regional population movements, resulting potentially in millions of what some have termed "climate refugees" fleeing environmental "hotspots."14,15 These assessments suggest that if such large-scale movements were to develop, U.S.
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2. Climate Change Impacts on Global Naval Installations Global sea-level rise is projected to be a major impact of climate change.17 Many naval coastal installations would be affected and would likely require adaptation.
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, the Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center (NAVFAC ESC) ,22 and the Naval Installations Command.23 Additionally, according to presentations 18 Konrad Steffen, Director, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, "State of the Science for Sea-Level Rise Data," presentation to the committee, October 20, 2009, Washington, D.C.
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Finding 2: U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps coastal installations around the globe will become increasingly susceptible to projected climate events.
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3. Naval Capabilities and Potential Climate-Change-Related Operational Issues in the Arctic Projected global climate change may have its most immediate and obvious implications for maritime operations in the Arctic region.
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Coast Guard bases) to the northern coast (where there are limited temporary facilities during the summer months)
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to support the projected increase in under-ice missions.38 Importance of Strong Maritime Partnerships The committee recognizes that policy decisions and associated trade-offs against current national defense priorities will be necessary before additional Arctic-related resources are allocated. However, if Arctic sea ice continues to retreat at a rapid pace and the Arctic region becomes truly ice-free during the summer months as predicted by the upper-end projections -- such as those adopted by the Navy Task 36 For example, a 2006 National Research Council report that lists a world inventory estimate of polar and Baltic icebreakers states that Russia has by far the largest fleet of icebreakers, although some of them are aging and some are used to keep supply lines open to Russia's Arctic coastal settlements.
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Navy (Ret.) , former Chief of Naval Operations, to the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
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4. Climate-Change-Related Technical Issues Impacting Naval Operations, Particularly in the Arctic and at High Latitudes In its initial deliberations, the committee identified four general areas of climate-change-related technical issues that may affect naval operations: antisubmarine warfare (ASW)
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According to presentations to the committee, the ocean temperature and salinity data that currently support the Navy's ASW tactical planning may need attention. Fleet ASW platforms make tactical predictions based on in situ measurements of ocean temperature versus depth, using expendable bathythermographs (XBTs)
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The committee will also address the general topic of risk management for naval forces and will comment on the possible benefits of applying the U.S. Navy's unique ocean and ice scientific data collection capabilities to support and enhance the understanding of potential impacts of climate change critical to national security and future naval operations.
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Additionally, the committee thanks members of the Chief of Naval Operations staff, N81 in particular, and the leadership of the Navy Climate Change Task Force for meeting with the committee throughout the course of the study to date. The committee would be very happy to brief you and your staff regarding the views expressed in this letter.
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