National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces (2011) / Chapter Skim
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6 Future Research and Development Needs
6 Future Research and Development Needs
Pages 114-128
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From page 114... ...
2009. "Global Ocean Heat Content 1955–2008 in Light of Recently Revealed Instrumentation Problems," Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.
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From page 115... ...
GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS, SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS, AND MODELING IN SUPPORT OF NAVY R&D REQUIREMENTS Naval operations demand environmental information in the form of observations, model-based analysis products, and model forecasts for navigation, com munication, general fleet support, antisubmarine warfare (ASW) , and search and rescue.
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From page 116... ...
Warming ocean and land temperatures, rising sea levels, disappearing Arctic sea ice, shrinking glaciers and ice sheets, shifts in rainfall patterns, and changes in storm frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are among the projected manifestations of climate change. The implications of these changes are such that the climatological databases that the U.S.
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From page 117... ...
In situ components include moored and drifting buoy arrays, such as the Argo float program.3 These and other satellite and in situ measurement efforts benefit Navy operational weather and ocean forecasting at the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) , and the Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (CNMOC)
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From page 118... ...
As one example, release of images of Arctic sea ice from 1999 to the present as part of the Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) Program is providing unique and fundamentally new information on the loss of Arctic sea ice, which is largely attributable to climate change.5 In another example, the release of Arctic sea-ice draft data derived from submarine upward looking sonar from the Navy's Arctic Submarine Laboratory provides a critical long-term estimate of sea-ice thickness since 1975.6 Despite the widespread interest nationally and internationally in developing a global ocean observing system for climate, there are significant challenges that limit progress in addressing some of the most pressing problems.
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RECOMMENDATION 6.1: The Office of Naval Research should reevaluate its long-standing decision to not support large-scale ocean measurement programs and instead participate directly in the large-scale sustained measurement programs that would support development of the Global Ocean Observing System. FINDING 6.2: Open access to previously classified Navy data and to other Department of Defense assets through the MEDEA Program has enabled advances in climate change research that have benefited the scientific community study ing climate change.
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From page 120... ...
system.10 Involvement in these new efforts by the Navy at this planning stage could ensure that they are designed to meet the needs of the naval forces. It is still quite challenging to assess climate model value or success because simulations from even the most advanced modeling systems have considerable spread and uncertainty.
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14 M.A. Shapiro, Jagadish Shukla, Gilbert Brunet, Carlos Nobre, Michael Béland, Randall Dole, Kevin Trenberth, Richard Anthes, Ghassem Asrar, Leonard Barrie, Philippe Bougeault, Guy Brasseur, David Burridge, Antonio Busalacchi, Jim Caughey, Deliang Chen, John Church, Takeshi Enomoto, Brian Hoskiins, Øystein Hov, Arlene Laing, Hervé Le Treut, Jochem Marotzke, Gordon McBean, Gerald Meehl, Martin Miller, Brian Mills, John Mitchell, Mitchell Moncrieff, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Haraldur Olafsson, Tim Palmer, David Parsons, David Rogers, Adrian Simmons, Alberto Troccoli, Zoltan Toth, Louis Uccellini, Christopher Velden, and John M
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From page 122... ...
at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, runs ocean models forced with pre scribed atmospheric boundary conditions so that there are no feedbacks between the ocean and the atmosphere as in a truly coupled system, other than for 5-day sea-ice forecasting in the Arctic, done with the dated polar ice projection system. Model forecast systems under development at NRL are for the ocean only and are intended to infuse new technology into the Navy operational ocean forecasting at CNMOC; generally these model forecasts extend to 7 days in the future.
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Tracer-transport inversion estimates the net sum of anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks. The use of this method has been hypothesized as being potentially useful in estimating greenhouse gas emissions to support anticipated future climate treaty obligations.
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These actions, combined with development of decision support tools for taking adaptive actions and an effective public education program, can lessen the economic and environmental impacts of sea-level rise."21 21 James G Titus, Eric K
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Current efforts to establish the first comprehensive, sustained in situ observing system in the Arctic are reviewed in this section, as is the state of climate modeling and seasonal forecasts of sea ice and Arctic climate that could prove valuable for planning Arctic operations. The decline of the yearly minimum sea-ice cover in September is more than 10 percent per decade during the satellite era (since 1979; see Figure 2.3 in the operations section)
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From page 126... ...
Climate models uniformly project continued sea-ice reduction in the 21st century, with most having a greater rate of thinning than reduction in extent. 27 However, many models correlate poorly with the observed sea-ice cover in the 20th century.28 The spread in future projections is very broad -- as is illustrated in Figure 6.2 with a histogram of the percent loss of Arctic September sea ice in 27 Kyle Armour, Cecilia M
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2010. "20th and 21st Century Arctic Climate in Global Climate Models," in press in Arctic Climate Change -- The ACSYS Decade and Beyond, P
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From page 128... ...
should examine the U.S. Navy's overall research and development capabilities vis-à-vis climate studies, especially with respect to coupled models and climate forecasting on seasonal-to-decadal timescales.
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