National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D: Letter Report to the U.S. Navy
Appendix D: Letter Report to the U.S. Navy
Pages 147-172
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D Letter Report to the U.S.
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future naval operations and capabilities in the context of potential climate change impacts .
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the U.S. Navy (Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Navy Task Force Climate Change, Navy Energy Coordination Office, Navy Task Force Energy, Office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Fleet Readiness and Logistics, Office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Plans and Strategy [N3/N5]
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Brown, USN, Director, Navy Energy Coordination Office, Office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Fleet Readiness and Logistics, "Navy Task Force Energy, Perspec tives and Related Climate Change Initiatives," presentation to the committee, September 17, 2009, Washington, D.C. 4 See Vice Chief of Naval Operations Memorandum 4000 Ser N09/9U103035, "Task Force Climate Change Charter," October 30, 2009.
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naval capabilities and potential climate-change-related operational issues globally, together with the closely related matter of the role of allied part nerships in regard to such global operational issues; (2) climate change impacts on global naval installations; (3)
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naval forces' assistance if climate-related disasters 6 In many regions of the world, the impact of climate change is likely to further exacerbate the preexisting stress on water supplies and the mounting pressures of population growth. For example, Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network has compiled in formation from IPCC assessments, the 2005 World Bank report Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, and CIESIN's gridded world population data sets to present a projected geographic distribution of vulnerability in 2050.
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interests in sensitive regions.12 However, the pace and extent of this increase are unknown. Based on the current uncertainty regarding the pace and extent of this demand, the Navy should not at present fund changes to force structure for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, but over time it should consider changes to the construction of future naval platforms of appropriate classes in order to accom modate HA/DR operations and potential increases in climate-change-related mass human migration.
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naval capabilities and global response to projected climate change is the role of allied forces partnerships. The commit tee received briefings from the National Intelligence Council suggesting that, in addition to the security challenges discussed above, the impact of projected severe climate change on food or water supplies and on disease patterns in certain regions of the world may lead to large-scale regional population movements, resulting potentially in millions of what some have termed "climate refugees" fleeing environmental "hotspots."14,15 These assessments suggest that if such large-scale movements were to develop, U.S.
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HA/DR operations. Recommendation 1: Although the committee has not yet completed its full analysis of the implications of climate change for future Navy force structure, it is clear that the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
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, Director, Climate Change and State Stability Program, National Intelligence Council, "National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030," presentation to the committee, October 19, 2009, Washington, D.C. 21 The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
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22 See for example, Kathleen Paulson and Dallas Meggitt, 2008, US Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center Environmental Program on Climate Change, Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center, Port Hueneme, Calif. 23 CAPT Brant Pickrell, USN, Deputy Director, Shore Readiness, Commander, Naval Installations Command, "Preliminary Climate Change Related Naval Base Assessments -- A Status Report," pre sentation to the committee, October 19, 2009, Washington, D.C.
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The preliminary review of climate-change-related base vulnerabilities across the DOD -- currently underway as directed by the requirements for the Quadrennial Defense Review -- does not include all of the important factors affecting coastal-installation vulnerabilities, but it does provide a baseline assessment across all Services and a starting point for more in-depth analysis. Recommendation 2: The Commander, Naval Installations Command, and the Navy Director for Fleet Readiness and Logistics should work with their U.S.
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See CAPT(S) Timothy Gallaudet, USN, Deputy Director, Navy Task Force Climate Change, "Task Force Climate Change Update and Gaps and Projected Future Needs," presentation to the committee, October 19, 2009, Washington, D.C.
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naval forces in the following three areas: 1. Port/Airbase Facilities.
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This deficiency is particularly significant given the recent and continuing invest ment in icebreaking resources by other countries, including China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union.36 Icebreakers are an important naval force component that will be necessary to sustaining Arctic operations. The defining of future Coast Guard icebreaker needs and investment strategy, including the feasibility of rehabilitating existing vessels, is an imperative.
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However, if Arctic sea ice continues to retreat at a rapid pace and the Arctic region becomes truly ice-free during the summer months as predicted by the upper-end projections -- such as those adopted by the Navy Task Force Climate Change39 -- the current naval asset posture may be insufficient for the U.S. Navy's maritime domain awareness strategy and insuf ficient to support U.S.
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Navy (Ret.) , former Chief of Naval Operations, to the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
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4. Climate-Change-Related Technical Issues Impacting Naval Operations, Particularly in the Arctic and at High Latitudes In its initial deliberations, the committee identified four general areas of climate-change-related technical issues that may affect naval operations: antisub marine warfare (ASW)
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Sensors Global Positioning System coverage for surface navigation is slightly degraded in the high latitudes (50-ft. horizontal precision has been demonstrated impact of increases in ocean acidification on naval operations, including the most recent research in this area, and broader climate change implications for ASW in the world's oceans, will be explored during the preparation of the committee's final report.
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See CAPT James J Fisher, USCG, Chief, Office of Policy Integration, Headquarters, "Waterways Management in the Arctic," communication to the committee, September 25, 2009.
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Furthermore, in the preparation of its final report, the committee plans to explore additional climate-change-related topics, such as the potential impacts on the hydrological cycle and regional freshwater balances, potential changes in disease vectors and marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the ability of the naval forces to train and operate in more extreme weather conditions -- including the potential for naval vessels to experience more severe and unpredicted storms at sea. The committee will also address the general topic of risk management for naval forces and will comment on the possible benefits of applying the U.S.
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Busalacchi, Jr., Co-Chair Co-Chair Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces Enclosures A Terms of Reference B Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S.
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future naval operations be impacted and what capabilities will be needed for U.S. future naval forces as a result of climate change?
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BITZ, University of Washington SHARON E BURKE, Center for New American Security RONALD FILADELFO, Center for Naval Analyses JEFFREY M
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LaPlante, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Joseph Pedlosky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and John E Rhodes, LtGen, USMC (Ret.)
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· October 19-20, 2009, in Washington, D.C. Second full committee meeting: Briefings on climate-change-related national security issues, naval installation vulnerabilities, and current research activities by representatives from the National Intelligence Council, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Navy Task Force Climate Change, Naval Installations Command, the Office of Naval Research, the U.S.
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