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1 Introduction
Pages 17-35

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From page 17...
... estab lished Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) that was charged initially with developing a road map for Navy actions in the Arctic, and then with addressing long-term Navy policy, strategy, and plans as a result of climate change.2 This National Research Council study, commissioned by the CNO and convened under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board (NSB)
From page 18...
... This chapter begins with an overview of climate change effects and their implications for national security. It then examines increased international activ ity in the Arctic as a result of climate change and the resulting implications of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
From page 19...
... more precipitation and drought extremes; (3) melt ing of mountain glaciers, Arctic sea ice, and ice sheets; and (4)
From page 20...
... More Vigorous More energy in hydrological cycle, Hydrological Cycle extreme rainfall events, more frequent high-intensity storms in some areas, prolonged regional droughts, flooding, potential humanitarian assistance and disaster relief impacts Melting of Ice Reduced glacier mass, reduced ice sheets, reduced multiyear sea ice in the Arctic, thawing permafrost, chang ing ocean salinity Sea-Level Rise Higher storm surges, salinization of fresh water, risks to coastal infrastruc ture, risks to high-population coastal deltas IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY Climate change alone is unlikely to cause conflict, but its manifestations can. The committee reviewed reports by the Center for Naval Analyses, the National Intelligence Council, and others that find that climate change can act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world and leading to potential national security implications.9 In addition, extreme weather events induced by a changing 9 See Military Advisory Board, 2007, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, CNA Corporation, Alexandria, Va.; and National Intelligence Council, 2008, 2025 Global Trends Report, November.
From page 21...
... Thomas Fingar, Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, before the Permanent Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, House of Representatives, "National Intelligence As sessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030," June 25, 2008. Available at http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20080625_testimony.pdf.
From page 22...
... Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard calls out "humanitarian assistance and disaster response" as one of six capabilities that constitute the core of U.S. maritime power and that "reflect an increased emphasis on those activities that prevent war and build partnerships." See Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, available at http:// www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf.
From page 23...
... may become increasingly accessible for exploration and exploitation as Arctic sea ice melts on a seasonal basis. The 2008 USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal reports that the extensive Arctic continental shelves may constitute the geographically largest unexplored area for petroleum products remaining on Earth, with an estimated 90 billion bar manding general of the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade flew from Okinawa to the Philippines to lead planning and humanitarian assistance efforts.
From page 24...
... Both icebergs and sea ice can be dangerous to shipping and always have an effect on navigation. Young ice: Newly formed sea ice less than 30 centimeters thick is de scribed as young ice or new ice.
From page 25...
... The current geopolitical forces at play in the Arctic, when combined with climate model projections of continued reduction in Arctic sea ice, provide compelling evidence that future requirements for U.S. naval operations in the Arctic will significantly increase over the next 30 years.
From page 26...
... The Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf is the governing body for these Arctic claims. In the case of the Arctic Ocean, the five Arctic coastal states are Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States.
From page 27...
... Having a seat at the table is extraordinarily important and it will diminish our maritime interests in the future if we do not subscribe to this." Communication to the committee from CAPT Timothy Gallaudet, USN, Deputy Director, Navy Task Force Climate Change, June 4, 2010. 21 For example, the 2010 DOD Quadrennial Defense Review provides endorsement for U.S.
From page 28...
... naval forces to carry out their missions would be assisted if the United States were to ratify UNCLOS. There fore, the committee recommends that the Chief of Naval Operations, the Commandant of the Marine Corps, and the Commandant of the Coast Guard continue to put forward the naval forces' view of the potential value and operational impact of UNCLOS ratification on U.S.
From page 29...
... Brown, USN, Director, Navy Energy Coordination Office, Office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Fleet Readiness and Logistics, "Navy Task Force Energy, Perspec tives and Related Climate Change Initiatives," presentation to the committee, September 17, 2009, Washington, D.C. 27 See Vice Chief of Naval Operations (ADM W
From page 30...
... Additionally, in response to a request from Congress, the National Research Council initiated the study America's Climate Choices, designed to inform and guide responses to climate change across the nation. Experts representing vari ous levels of government, the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, and research and academic institutions populated panels on the following: 30 The reader should note that Navy Task Force Climate Change was chartered to focus on issues for the U.S.
From page 31...
... A comprehensive climate observing system, improved climate models and other analytical tools, investment in human capital, and better linkages between research and decision making are also essential to a complete understanding of climate change.33 As discussed in Chapter 6 of this committee's report, the Navy is in position to both contribute to and benefit from such an effort. PROPOSED NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FRAMEWORKS FOR CLIMATE SERVICES In addition to needs expressed by the DOD and military services for better (decadal or longer)
From page 32...
... Delegations from 163 nations met in Geneva to ensure that current and future generations have access to the climate predictions and information necessary for various socioeconomic sectors to cope with climate variability and change.35 RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE FACE OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS This committee believes that there is strong scientific evidence to recommend that U.S. naval leadership should continue their ongoing attention to the national security implications of climate change, specifically its potential impact on future naval operations and capabilities.
From page 33...
... See National Research Council, 2009, Scientific Value of Arctic Sea Ice Data, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. In another example, Scientific Ice Expeditions (SCICEX)
From page 34...
... ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT This report is organized to address the key naval issues requested in the study's terms of reference and presents findings and recommendations in the six areas for naval leadership action outlined in the report Summary. Following the Chapter 1 introductory comments, Chapter 2 addresses national security and climate-change-related operational issues for U.S.
From page 35...
... naval forces -- concentrating on those areas in which the committee believes the naval forces have particular interests that might not likely be met in the near term by other groups pursuing climate science research.


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