National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces (2011) / Chapter Skim
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3 Infrastructure Issues
3 Infrastructure Issues
Pages 63-78
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From page 63... ...
The chapter then discusses the regional aspects of sea-level rise and the need for individual naval base assessments -- to include the role of storm surge. The chapter concludes by reviewing recent preliminary naval coastal installation vulnerability assessments and makes suggestions for improving these assessments going forward.
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From page 64... ...
Precision in the measurement of changes in globally averaged sea level was improved substantially in the early 1990s with the deployment of the TOPEX/ Marine Corps Base # Quantico # NavalNorfolk Station FIGURE 3.1 Potential regional impact of future sea-level rise. Several static and dynamic models are being developed for projecting the regional impact of sea-level rise.
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From page 65... ...
projected changes in global average sea level under various scenarios considering glacier and ice sheet mass loss, but recognized that there was much uncertainty in the results. This lack of precision is because observational records of sea-level rise are short and therefore subject to uncertainty; in addition, the understanding of how glaciers and ice sheets will respond to increased temperature changes is very poor.4 Work published since the 2007 IPCC report suggests that loss of ice from small ice bodies (e.g., mountain glaciers and small ice caps)
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From page 66... ...
Storm surges occurring on higher mean sea levels will enable inundation and damaging waves to penetrate further inland, increasing flooding, erosion, and the subsequent detrimental impacts on built infrastructure and natural ecosystems. At coastal naval instal underestimated5,6 and that major changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet dynamics can take place over relatively short timescales.
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From page 67... ...
The mechanisms that could potentially drive rapid ice sheet change include meltwater drainage with an increase in basal lubrication, glacier surging due to basal hydrology changes, ice sheet/ocean interactions enhancing glacier melt by contact with warming seawater, and ice sheet thinning due to the loss of
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From page 68... ...
By considering observational data from the accelerated loss of ice from small gla ciers and the dynamics of small marine terminating glaciers, several researchers have suggested an additional 0.1 to 0.25 meter to the global sea-level estimates reported in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment.9 The most recent work on this topic proposes that a lower bound for the global contribution of melt from small glaciers and ice caps could be as much as 0.37 meter over the next 100 years.10 In 2007, the IPCC projections of the contribution from small glacier and ice cap melt to the sea level were between only 0.10 and 0.12 meter. In regard to the larger ice masses, recent work using a kinematic approach to determine plausible veloci ties of outlet glaciers in both Greenland and Antarctic has led to an indication of global average sea-level rise ranging from 0.4 meter to 2 meters by 2100.11 An examination of the various estimates leads the committee to regard a 0.8 meter global average sea-level rise by 2100 as a reasonable planning target for naval leaders.
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From page 69... ...
and the dependence of such events upon changes in regional relative sea level, tidal amplitudes, and the nature of extreme meteorological forces that are of greatest importance.14,15 Therefore, evaluating future risks for naval installations involves an understanding of changes in storm frequency as well as local sea-level rise. Each and every naval facility has a unique configura tion and requires ongoing evaluation of changing risks as the climate changes.
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70 FIGURE 3.2 Observations from the TOPEX-Poseidon altimeter satellite of the global rise in sea level over about 12 years (in mm/yr)
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FIGURE 3.3 Estimated sea-level change over 12 years (in m/yr) from a combination of altimetric, in situ observations and a general circulation model (updated from C
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suggests that loss of ice from small ice bodies (e.g., mountain glaciers and small ice caps) may have been underestimated in the last IPCC report and that major changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet dynamics can take place over relatively short timescales.
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From page 73... ...
RECOMMENDATION 3.2: In performing vulnerability analysis, naval facility managers should recognize that each and every naval facility has a unique configuration and requires ongoing oversight of the changing risks as the climate system shifts. For example, local storm surge impact in climate-induced extreme storm events is likely to represent a bigger vulnerability risk than will sea-level rise alone.
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From page 74... ...
, a broader and more detailed assessment will provide a foundation, but there is a clear need for a more detailed global analysis and an action plan to address the vulnerabilities of those coastal installations identified as being at "very high risk" and at "high risk." 21 The assumptions, decisions, and time lines for addressing these risks should be determined on a consistent basis across the DOD and all naval services. The committee suggests that additional risk factors beyond current indicators of sea-level rise, tidal range, and coastal geomorphology be included in future analyses, including factors such as regional extreme weather history and potential impacts on critical infrastructure -- such as communications, transportation, and utilities.
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From page 75... ...
Communities surrounding naval installations may also be stressed and require contingency plans, including the need to address potential impacts to coastal wetlands and ecosystems and on local public health.23,24 CURRENT NAVAL COASTAL VULNERABILITY STUDIES There are currently at least three separate Navy groups involved in the analysis of coastal installation vulnerability issues for the Navy: the Naval Space Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR) , the Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center (NAVFESC)
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From page 76... ...
This approach is also recommended for non-DOD naval forces in their capital investment decisions. Considering the current measurements for sea-level rise, it is not anticipated that the Navy will need to make a major resource investment in the near term, with the exception of those naval installations currently identified as being at very high risk.
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From page 77... ...
RECOMMENDATION 3.3a: The Commander, Naval Installations Command, and the Navy Director for Fleet Readiness and Logistics should work with their U.S. Coast Guard and Marine Corps counterparts -- and in conjunction with the other armed services and the Office of the Secretary of Defense -- to ensure that a coordinated analysis is undertaken to address naval-installation vulnerability to rising sea levels, higher storm surges, and other consequences of climate change.
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From page 78... ...
There will be thresholds at which existing natural and built coastal barriers are exceeded. An important dimension of this risk is that of storm surge, especially if warmer future conditions give rise to an increased intensity of storms.
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