National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces (2011) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
4 Allied Forces' and Partners' Issues
4 Allied Forces' and Partners' Issues
Pages 79-93
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 79... ...
The chapter concludes with a discussion of regional vulnerabilities and specific find ings and recommendations toward developing maritime partnerships as central to cooperative strategies for climate-change-related adaptation and planning, including suggested partnerships in the Arctic region. The World Bank's World Development Report 2010 states that all regions of the world are vulnerable to climate change.1 Some have more natural susceptibility 1 TheWorld Bank.
|
From page 80... ...
, migrants fleeing natural disasters in North Africa, for example, may move in large numbers into NATO countries in southern Europe.2 Such mass migrations are likely to challenge the physical and social infrastructure in countries of origin and in recipient countries. While migration may or may not be seen as a security challenge, contending with such events is likely to place demands on the military and maritime resources of partner nations, as it has at times in the past.3 Taking natural and human-made vulnerability into account, the committee found that there were several global hot spots of particular concern to the United States and its allies.
|
From page 81... ...
4 CAPT Alfred Collins, USN, Chief of Staff, Fourth Fleet, U.S. Navy Southern Command, "Haiti HA/DR and Climate Change Impact on Naval Operations in SOUTHCOM AOR," presentation to the committee, March 23, 2010.
|
From page 82... ...
KEY GEOGRAPHIC "HOT SPOT" PROJECTIONS, MIGRATION PATTERNS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSUMPTIONS National Intelligence Council Assessments In follow-up analysis to its 2008 report National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030,7 the NIC embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: (1) Russia; (2)
|
From page 83... ...
. World Bank Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments In work similar to the NIC Phase I assessments, the World Bank World Development Report 2010 presents a projection of global climate-change-related vulnerabilities.9 The report suggests specific vulnerabilities in six global regions that may be of importance for U.S.
|
From page 84... ...
84 TABLE 4.1 Summary of National Intelligence Council Projected High-Risk Impacts of Climate Change to the Year 2030, by Country or Region High-Risk Impacts Water Socioeconomic/ Country or Region Coastal Regions Resources Agriculture Energy Migration Political Stress Russia X X X X X China X X X Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands X X X India X X X X X X Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America X X X X X North Africa X X X X SOURCE: Based on data in National Intelligence Council, 2008, The Impact of Climate Change to 2030, a series of commissioned research reports and conference reports. See http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_climate2030.html.
|
From page 85... ...
Water is the major vulnerability in the Middle East and North Africa, the world's driest region, where per capita water availability is predicted to halve by 2050 even without the effects of climate change. The region has few attractive options for increasing water storage, since
|
From page 86... ...
South Asia suffers from an already stressed and largely degraded natural resource base resulting from geography coupled with high lev
|
From page 87... ...
Rising sea levels are a dire concern in the region, which has long and densely populated coastlines, agricultural plains threatened by saltwater intrusion, and many low-lying islands. In more severe climate change scenarios, rising seas would submerge much of the Maldives and inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh's land.
|
From page 88... ...
For example, several African countries are arguing over water rights to the Nile based on claims exerted by Egypt; Israel and Jordan have competing claims to the Jordan River; across the Himalayas, China's dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River is causing anxieties about water availability in India's northeastern sector and in Bangladesh; and India's own projects to build hydroelectric dams along the Indus River to trap Himalayan waters have caused increased tension with Pakistan. 11 While this committee did not focus on water challenges directly, challenges to water systems and water availability exacerbated by climate change could add to global tensions and lead to potentially broader national security implications and implications for naval forces.
|
From page 89... ...
In addition, the Commandant of the Coast Guard should establish an FAO program and the Commandant of the Marine Corps should expand its present limited FAO program for the development of bilateral and multilateral relationships; and · Direct the United States Coast Guard to forward deploy Coast Guard cutters to locations that offer opportunities for the joint enforcement of maritime security. These cutters would help to attain Navy and combatant commander engagement goals and would be the correct security assets to employ to meet theater cooperation goals.14 With stronger partnerships and more capable partners, the United States will be more likely to mount effective responses to the range of projected climaterelated contingencies.
|
From page 90... ...
NATO could become a focal point for leading international military HA/DR efforts, but as of the writing of this report, NATO does not yet have a formal climate change policy.16 The committee's discussions with senior military officials suggest that many NATO countries have strong national climate change policies, but they lack sufficient capabilities to prepare for or respond to projected climate changes at home and around the world. Although differences of opinion on climate change have at times been divisive in relations among NATO countries, a common effort to develop capabilities and capacity for climate response has the potential to strengthen the alliance.
|
From page 91... ...
Stavridis, USN, Com In Com mander of the United States European Command and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) , stated that the United States and NATO, while aware of areas of disagreement with Russia, will seek a cooperative strategy with Russia in the Arctic region.
|
From page 92... ...
More recently, in April 2010, after 40 years of negotiations, Russia and Norway announced an agreement to end a long-standing undersea border dispute in the Barents Sea and Arctic Ocean. The agreement outlines the extent of each nation's Arctic territory.21 While avoidance of military conflict cannot be assured, this committee's findings on potential conflict in the Arctic further support the 2005 national intelligence assessments that major military conflict in the Arctic region is not likely over the next 20 years.
|
From page 93... ...
RECOMMENDATION 4.2: The Chief of Naval Operations, working with the combatant commanders, the Commandant of the Coast Guard, and the Comman dant of the Marine Corps, should build maritime partnerships in the Arctic region and encourage the United States to continue to identify and adopt policies and relationships in the Arctic that will build cooperation for new circumstances and minimize the risks of confrontation. (For example, naval leaders should pursue bilateral and multilateral training and exercising of U.S.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.