Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter Symposium 2010 (2010) / Chapter Skim
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1 Motivation for the Symposium
1 Motivation for the Symposium
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and the growth between them, with the goal of perpetuating and strengthening a dialogue between warfighters and members of the IC on ways to minimize surprise from either the unexpected appearance of novel technological capabilities or innovative adaptations of existing capabilities, or both. The 2005 publication Aoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Adances: A Symposium Report introduced a methodology for gauging the potential impact of emerging technologies on national security, which served as the foundation for the symposium in 2010.1 1 NRC.
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This symposium represents an important part of DWO's ongoing efforts to engage warfighters and intelligence analysts in a discussion of potential threats posed by disruptive innovations and their impacts on national security. These efforts have been successful and are expected to produce even more benefits with continued engagement, including meetings such as this one.
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Hogg, and closed with presentations from DWO and USJFCOM's Future Joint Operating Environment Team. SyMPOSIuM PARTICIPANTS The more than 100 participants in this year's symposium included S&TI analysts or producers; consumers of S&TI from military, government, and nongovernment organizations; and the members of the ad hoc symposium committee.
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Modeling, simulation, and games Energy Lightweight electrical systems High-energy-density materials Hypersonic flight Affordable space launch summarized in Figure 1-1. A comprehensive list of the organizations represented at the symposium is included in Appendix B
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Together with the qualitative data distilled from the blogs, the quantitative data provided the committee with valuable insights into participants' attitudes, their claimed existing knowledge, and, in some cases, the evolution of the participants' knowledge and shared understanding of the concepts presented. The committee observed that one benefit of using the collaboration tools was the increased participation of audience members.
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The areas that showed the most difference between the two groups were cognitive neuroscience and virtual reality, as can be seen by comparing the consumer/end user line and the producer/provider line in Figure 1-2. WORkSHOP TOPICS S&TI analysts from the DIA loosely grouped the technology areas of interest discussed in the presentations into four potential drivers for future technology surprise: nonkinetic weapons, the death of privacy, Human 2.0 (including the use of cyber technologies to enhance human cognition and interaction)
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7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Technical Resources Magnitude Light bubbles = Producer/Provider Dark bubbles = Consumer/End User 1.0 Size of bubble reflects financial resources magnitude 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Technology Reference Number LO/CLO Quantum C4I Virtual Reality Agile Systems Nanophotonics Nonlethal Weapons Ultraprecision Strike Hypersonic Systems Miniaturized Systems Adaptive Camouflage Cognitive Neuroscience Affordable Space Launch Modeling, Simulation, Gaming Lightweight Electrical Systems High-Energy-Density Materials FIGURE 1-2 Comparison of survey results obtained from producers/providers and consumers/end users regarding the 15 technology areas highlighted in symposium presentations. LO/CLO, low observables/counter low observables.
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Owing to the nature of some of the material covered, the summaries in some cases are very brief.
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