Overview and Summary of America's Energy Future Technology and Transformation (2010) / Chapter Skim
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Overview and Summary
Overview and Summary
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Although new technology alone is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the nation's energy challenges, developments in science and technology will substantially affect our ability to shape future energy options. New energy technologies hold considerable promise for enabling more-efficient energy use; for providing cleaner energy and safer, more-efficient recovery and use of traditional sources of supplies such as oil, coal, and natural gas; and for leading to a post–fossil fuel era of more secure and environmentally benign energy sources.
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This Oeriew and Summary highlights key findings presented and major topics discussed in America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation and also reflects results presented in three reports prepared by three separate study panels appointed, along with the AEF Committee, to carry out the AEF project. The three panel reports in the AEF series include the following: • Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments; 1National Academy of Sciences-National Academy of Engineering-National Research Coun cil, America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2009.
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An overview is then presented of the following topics: energy use in America; the nation's energy efficiency potential; energy-supply options, including electricity from renewable resources, nuclear energy, and fossil fuel energy; future electricity generation costs and the development of transmission and distribution infrastructure; and alternative liquid transportation fuels. Unless indicated otherwise, statistics cited and tables and figures included in this overview and summary are documented in America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation and in the other reports in the AEF series.
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consumption of energy, especially over the next decade. In fact, the full deployment of cost-effective energy efficiency technologies in buildings alone could eliminate the need to construct any new electricity-generating plants in the United States except to address regional supply imbalances, replace obsolete power generation assets, or substitute more environmentally benign sources of electricity.
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Despite limited options for replacing petroleum or reducing its use before 2020, more substantial longer term options -- including improved vehicle efficiency, use of biomass and coal-to-liquid fuels, and increased use of electric or hybrid-electric vehicles -- could begin to make significant contributions in the 2030– 2035 timeframe. • Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
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• Technology research, development, and demonstration. Although there are technologies that can increase energy efficiency and supply new energy for the next decade, research and development (R&D)
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. However, the burning of fossil fuels has a number of deleterious environmental impacts, among the most serious of which is the emission of greenhouse gases, primarily CO2.
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Consumption = 101.6 Quads 30 20 10 0 Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydropower Biomass Other Power Renewables Energy Source FIGURE 2 Sources of the energy used in the United States in 2008. R01203 Main Report 1-2
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The AEF Committee concluded that with a sustained national commitment, the United States can develop and deploy a portfolio of existing and emerging energy technologies at an accelerated pace. These efforts could result in substantial energy efficiency improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
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. Achieving substantial reductions in CO2 emissions from the electricity sector is likely to require an approach involving the accelerated deployment of multiple technologies enabling improved energy efficiency, the accelerated deployment of renewable sources of energy, new technologies for the burning of coal and natural gas with CCS, and the installation of evolutionary nuclear technologies.
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At the same time, coal-to-liquid fuels with CCS could replace another 15–20 percent of the transportation fuels consumed currently. However, the annual harvesting of up to 500 million dry metric tons of biomass and an increase in U.S.
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. R01203 Main Report 2-1 other and with the AEF Committee's independent analysis.
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Energy Efficiency -- Transportation Sector The transportation sector, which is almost completely dependent on petroleum, produces about one-third of the U.S. greenhouse gases emitted in energy use.
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Because fuel-cell and battery-electric vehicles could ultimately eliminate the need for petroleum in transportation, they could also reduce and possibly even eliminate light-duty-vehicle tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases. However, the full-fuel-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases -- cumulative emissions associated with all steps in the use of a fuel, from produc tion and refining to distribution and final use -- will depend on how hydrogen is produced for use in fuel cell vehicles and how electricity is produced for PHEVs.
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In chemical and petroleum production, technologies for improving energy efficiency include high-temperature reactors, corrosion-resistant metal- and ceramic-lined reactors, and sophisticated process controls. By 2020, the petroleum-refining sector could cost-effectively increase its energy efficiency by 10–20 percent.
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Energy Efficiency -- Barriers to Deployment of Better Technologies Numerous barriers discourage the use of energy efficiency technologies. In the buildings sector, most utilities profit when consumers use more energy and so are not rewarded for achieving increases in energy efficiency.
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Even so, substantial energy savings will be realized only if efficient technologies and practices achieve wide use and if well designed policies can surmount barriers and encourage energy efficiency. ENERGY-SUPPLY OPTIONS Electricity from Renewable Resources Over the past 20 years, the level of electricity generation from renewable resources has risen significantly.
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such as conventional hydropower. Potential new supply shown is in addition to cur rently operating supply. An accelerated deployment of technologies is assumed. All val R01203 ues are rounded to two significant figures. Main Report 2-7 Technologies for Electric Power from Renewable Sources Several renewable energy technologies for power generation from wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower, and biomass fuels are now available and are undergoing further improvements.
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However, given resource constraints, the use of biomass for electricity production will compete with its use for alternative liquid transportation fuels such as ethanol. Renewables -- Generation Capacity and Resource Base Wind and solar power currently have the highest growth rates as renewable resources for electricity generation.
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One signifi cant barrier is that existing technologies for electricity generation from renewables are more expensive than those for most fossil-fuel-based sources of electricity if no costs are assigned to emissions of greenhouse gases or other pollutants. Other hin drances include a lack of sufficient transmission capacity and the inconsistency of policies supporting the renewable power industry.
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The installation rate for wind power under this option is approximately the current rate of installation, and the installation rates of the other renewable technologies are consistent with an accelerated deployment schedule. Greatly expanding the fraction of electricity generated from renewable sources will require changes in the present electric system because of variability over space and time in the availability of renewables such as wind and the difficulty of scaling up renewable resources.
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The DOE 20 percent wind study referred to above provides one estimate of the costs of obtaining a 20 percent annual average of total electricity generation from renewable energy sources in the United States. Although a single study, it included contributions from a wide array of stakeholders, including electric utili ties, wind power companies, engineering consultant firms, and environmental organizations.
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Renewables -- Impacts The lifetime emissions of CO2 and criteria pollutants7 per kilowatt-hour for renewable energy, i.e., accounting for emissions from the extraction of natural resources to final disposal, are lower than for fossil energy, although lifetime emissions associated with renewables are about the same as those for nuclear power. Renewable electricity technologies (except for biopower, some geothermal, and high-temperature solar technologies)
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Among their motivations are the need for additional baseload generating capacity, concern about emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel plants, and the volatility of natural gas prices. They have also cited favorable experiences with existing nuclear power plants, including ongoing improvements in reliability and safety.8 If this interest continues, an expansion of nuclear power through 2020 and, most likely, through 2035 will not require any major research and development.
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and fast neutron reactor designs. Some thermal neutron reactor plants operate at higher temperatures than current plants and produce heat that could be used, in addition to electricity.
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. The supply generated by nuclear power is shown in red. An accelerated deploy ment of technologies and a capacity factor of 90 percent are assumed. It is also assumed that current plants will be retired at the end of 60-year operating lives, resulting in a reduced supply of electricity from nuclear power in 2035, shown by the negative-valued red bar on the right. However, if operating extensions to 80 years are approved for these plants, they may not be retired by 2035. All values are rounded to two significant figures. Nuclear Power -- Development Potential By 2020, as many as five to nine new evolutionary nuclear plants could be built in the United States.
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The program is intended to be revenue-neutral to the government. It is not yet clear whether the $18.5 billion appropriated for nuclear construction will be sufficient for the 4−5 plants that the AEF Committee judges will be needed to demonstrate whether new nuclear plants can be built on schedule and on budget.
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electricity supply. Barring a crash program, renewable energy sources and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage will most likely not meet the entire U.S.
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13This calculation assumes that nuclear plants replace traditional baseload coal plants emitting 1000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per gigawatt-hour and that nuclear plants emit 24–55 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per gigawatt-hour on a life-cycle basis. 14Since the AEF Committee's report was published in 2009 and as of March 2010, the USNRC has received a total of 18 combined construction and operating-license applications for new power reactors, and federal loan guarantees have been announced for several new reactors.
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The cleanest fossil fuel, natural gas, emits about half as much CO2 per unit of energy as coal does when burned for electricity generation. While the U.S.
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If carbon capture and storage technologies are successfully developed, it is possible that future coal consumption could remain at current levels or could increase, even if greenhouse gas emissions limits are put in place. However, if practical CCS technologies fail to materialize, coal use will be severely curtailed in a world where carbon emissions are constrained.
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For exam ple, one offshore operation in Norway separates 50 million standard cubic feet of CO2 per day (1 million metric tons per year) from natural gas before the fuel is inserted into the European grid.
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enhancements to traditional pulverized-coal technologies. These technologies have varying potential for reducing coal plants' greenhouse gas emissions.
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natural gas prices rose above $13 per million Btu and fell to below $4 per million Btu. Future rules governing greenhouse gas emissions and the pace at which CCS technologies can be commercialized will also affect the competitiveness of coal versus natural gas.
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Whether any coal plants and natural gas plants without CCS will still be operating in 2035 will depend on the policies in place at that time for limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. Fossil Fuels -- Impacts of and Barriers to Deployment The widespread use of fossil fuels in the United States has significant environmental impacts, many of which have been addressed over the past few decades by a broad array of laws and regulations.
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FUTURE ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION INFRASTRUCTURE Estimating Future Costs of Electricity Generation Although their potential is promising overall, new sources of electricity supply will likely result in higher electricity prices. Estimates of the levelized cost of electric ity for new baseload and intermittent generation of electricity in 2020 are shown in Figure 6, which indicates a range of LCOE values for each technology and also shows that the ranges for many different technologies are overlapping.
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But with an investment only modestly greater than the cost of adding transmission lines and replacing vintage equipment, new technology could be incorporated that would improve the reliability of power delivery, enable the growth of wholesale power markets, allow integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid, improve resilience against blackouts and other disrup tions, and provide better price signals to customers through "smart" metering.
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8 America's Energy Future Distributed Generation Real-time & Storage Monitoring & Control Energy Custom Storage Power FACTS Devices Microgrids Substation High-voltage DC Transmission Outage Detection & Management Smart Advanced Sensors Meters & Communications Self-generation & Two-way Power Flow FIGURE 7 Technologies for modernizing the U.S. transmission and distribution of elec tricity. Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS) devices include technol ogy for improving control and enhancing the steady-state security of transmission and 3 R0120 Main Report 9-8 distribution systems.
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Prospects for the expansion of traditional electricity storage technologies, such as pumped-storage hydroelectric dams, are quite limited in the United States. Some advanced storage technologies, such as compressed-air energy and perhaps advanced batteries, will likely be ready for deployment before 2020, although significant development is still needed.
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The environmental benefits of modern transmission and distri bution systems include reduced carbon emissions as a result of the greater penetra tion of intermittent renewable sources; improved ability to accommodate tech nologies that match demand to the production of electricity; integration of electric vehicles; and increased efficiency. Finally, modern transmission and distribution systems will enhance safety because improved monitoring and decision making will allow for quicker identification of hazardous conditions and will also reduce unexpected maintenance.
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By producing alternative liquid transportation fuels from domestic resources, the United States could reduce its dependence on imported oil, increase energy security, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fuels from Coal and Biomass Coal and biomass are two abundant resources with substantial potential for pro duction of alternative liquid transportation fuels.
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With all the necessary conversion and distribution infrastructure in place, 500 million dry metric tons of biomass could be used to produce up to 30 bil lion gallons of gasoline-equivalent fuels per year (or 2 million bbl/d)
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of the fuel currently used in light duty vehicles. Thermochemical Conversion Technologies that convert coal into transportation fuels could be used on a com mercial level today, but life-cycle emissions of greenhouse gas would be more than twice the CO2 emissions associated with petroleum-based fuels (see Figure 8)
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If 500 million dry metric tons of biomass are combined with coal (60 per cent coal and 40 percent biomass on an energy basis) , production of 60 billion gallons of gasoline-equivalent fuels per year (4 million bbl/d)
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of biomass per year -- tapping less than the total projected biomass availability -- and about 225 million metric tons of coal. Alternative Liquid Fuels from Coal and Biomass -- Costs, Barriers, and Deployment Using a consistent set of assumptions, the AEF Committee estimated the costs of cellulosic ethanol, coal-to-liquid fuels with and without CO2 storage, and coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuels with and without CO2 storage (Figure 9)
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Hydrogen has considerable potential, as discussed in previous National Research Council reports.17 Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles could yield large and sus tained reductions in U.S. oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but it will take several decades to realize these potential long-term benefits.
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