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3 Climate Change Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems
Pages 29-76

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From page 29...
... Given the diverse nature of metrics, a uniform process for categorizing and prioritizing the metrics presented in this report is not possible. However, certain characteristics tend to make a metric particularly useful, including: Direct (e.g., loss of mass of an ice sheet leads to rising sea level)
From page 30...
... Sea level rise has a direct link to the climate system, and it is significant, dominant, measurable, historical, and well documented. Therefore, it was placed in the high climate, high environmental sustainability category.
From page 31...
... location and extent of desalination facilities in coastal zones. The location and extent of offshore energy production and supply could be measured by ocean productivity, high-resolution imagery of energy production infrastructure, seafloor morphology, and habitat imagery of the coastal zone and shoreline.
From page 32...
... Maldives, Micronesian Islands) High-resolution maps of Cryosphere, and Higher sea level amplifies coastal erosion, storm Deltaic coasts (e.g., Bangladesh)
From page 33...
... help project future impacts to continuing sea level rise. Low climate, high environmental sustainability Fish is the main food interface with the ocean, Nations with significant fishing Health of wild and Fishing intensity (spatial and conversion of wetlands to aquaculture, impacts of and aquaculture activities (e.g., temporal patterns)
From page 34...
... This is at the Phytoplankton species Gulf intersection of climate change and environmental Ocean productivity sustainability. Low climate, moderate environmental sustainability
From page 35...
... archipelago MPAs can also increase ecosystem resilience in the Belize face of climate change by reducing other human caused environmental stresses such as fishing and resource extraction. Tracking this metric over time can gauge its effectiveness as a means to sustain ecosystem services and resilience in the face of climate change.
From page 36...
... Such applications might involve overlaying base maps of controlling factors across a regional monitoring system to control for environmental conditions. Examples of variables would include water resource levels, soil moisture, or soil nutrient status.
From page 37...
... The selection of these place-based metrics obviously derives from the current perception of important issues (e.g., direct effects of CO2 on plant processes, climate change effects at transition zones of vegetation, changes in patterns of land use, loss of biotic diversity and change in diversity hot-spots, moisture conditions, crop productivity, livestock populations, and locations with potentially large changes in albedo)
From page 38...
... Species that experience range shifts are more sustainable in Latitudinal and Geographical locations for Altitudinal transects that have relation to global warming, but only to a point. If they altitudinal shifts in representative species historical data (many of these are meet impassable barriers that impede them, or reach the species distributions Population density and size archived in the Swiss-based tops of mountains, they may be trapped and become for representative species Mountain Climate Network and unsustainable.
From page 39...
... Plant productivity Soil moisture dynamics are critical variables for many of Areas where monitoring recharge is Decomposition rate the ecological models used for global carbon budgets important (developing nations Soil formation rate and other global ecological processes. and places where surface water resources are contaminated or in decline)
From page 40...
... Water is critical to where surface water resources are (see Hydrology table) time human survival and food production.
From page 41...
... Water, fertilizer, pesticide, and labor inputs through time Sub-Saharan Africa Livestock is a critical source of food and livelihoods, Livestock populations Density of livestock (animal South America especially as a way to manage risk and utilize relatively heads per square km) unproductive lands in poor regions.
From page 42...
... (via "enriched," sub-pixel (e.g., South Asia urbanization, because of the emphasis on local sustainability and the civilian satellite archive) South America forest strong traditional basis for the practice.
From page 43...
... It has been suggested that the loss of ice shelves because of excessive heat content in ocean currents lead to more rapid decay of continental ice and consequent increases in sea level. The panel was cognizant of the observational capabilities of the report's primary audience, which led it to deemphasize those metrics that, although very important in global climate interactions, require comprehensive observations on a very large scale.
From page 44...
... Surface elevation in summer and Those with longest records contained within winter the World Glacier Monitoring Service, especially in Asia and South America, where glacier runoff is a critical water resource
From page 45...
... Totten, Jutelstraumen, Lambert Glaciers Subglacial hydrology (storage Reliable forecasting of sea level rise and and Foundation, Whillans and Kamb Ice and transfer) and basal assessment of impacts can significantly Streams)
From page 46...
... transition during storms Snow is a significant component of available Runoff and its timing relative to water supply and a critical factor in demand regional and local water management Snow albedo, subdivided into (e.g., U.S. west)
From page 47...
... Sea ice volume Sea ice extent and ice type Entire Arctic and southern oceans Polar societies are strongly dependent on (thickness and Freeboard height marine ecosystems for food and extent) Snow thickness livelihood; shrinking sea ice will Ice motion adversely affect these subsistence societies.
From page 48...
... and animal populations, and consequent Surface accumulation potential for conflicts. Melt extent, intensity, timing Reliable forecasting of sea level rise and (including equilibrium line assessment of impacts can significantly position)
From page 49...
... for parameters that measure climate sensitivity, characterize global climate state, and define major drivers for climate change; (2) measurements of state changes that represent key feedbacks with current high uncertainty and possible high impact on future climate; and (3)
From page 50...
... seasons, heat waves, and ice sheet melt are clear detect shifts in phenology Changes from the past 30-year measures of regional climate change in a warming Metropolitan areas for heat statistics for seasonal duration world with direct connections to health, stress and for extreme events such agriculture, and water resources policies. Ice sheets and mountain glaciers as heat waves and cold spells (measures altitude of =0)
From page 51...
... are directly linked to environmental Super-metropolitan (e.g., Japan, sustainability. Southern California, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, South China, India industrial centers)
From page 52...
... human health: smoke, may engender flooding and are therefore directly Super-metropolitan areas (e.g., Speciation: dust, nitrates, organic deposition onto farmland linked to environmental sustainability. Japan, United Kingdom, carbon, soot and forests near cities, Southern California, Dhaka and industrial/agricultural Mexico City, Sao Paulo, aerosol (see Human Beijing, India industrial Health and Dimensions centers)
From page 53...
... Mexico City, Sao Paulo, pollution Respiratory diseases are related to air quality, which Beijing, India industrial will change along with changes in temperatures, centers) hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, and rates of East Asian Outflow (Japan)
From page 54...
... Moreover, water management practices that affect terrestrial water storage, particularly groundwater withdrawal, likely contribute to current rates of sea level rise. Local sea level rise can result from local depression of the land-surface caused by subsidence owing to groundwater withdrawal.
From page 55...
... Andes Regional climate feedbacks and loss of the Cascades glaciers contribute to sea level rise.
From page 56...
... Snow is a significant component of available storms water supply and a critical factor in Runoff and its timing relative to regional and local water management (e.g., demand U.S. west)
From page 57...
... organic carbon concentrations) Major rivers of lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and large CO2 and CH4 fluxes from lakes and Reservoirs, location to be determined based streams streams on inventory of existing fine-resolution DOC has major environmental sustainability imagery consequences for water quality for human Lakes and rivers that drain into wetlands in use and for promoting harmful algal tropical regions blooms in coastal regions.
From page 58...
... Lake ice duration is strongly connected to water quality for human health because chlorination of high dissolved organic carbon water creates harmful byproducts, which are regulated in the United States and Europe. Images showing pattern of lake ice formation and break-up will be useful in developing predictive linking of ice cover duration to climate models.
From page 59...
... . withdrawal (e.g., Sahel, Ganges Reservoirs Natural Disasters Brahmaputra plain, Yellow River)
From page 60...
... may be one of the most visible and most easily measured of all environmental sustainability indicators. Monitoring the ability of such populations to rebuild and maintain municipal services and quality of life, or for such Earth systems to maintain diversity, health, and areal extent, despite repeatedly being affected by weather- and climate-related natural disasters should provide graphic indication and warning of the changing, possibly increasing impacts of climate change.
From page 61...
... Table 3-6, Environmental Sustainability Indicators for Natural Disaster-Prone Populations and Earth Systems, addresses the ability of populations and Earth systems to sustain themselves in locations prone to climate-related disasters. Table 3-7, Weatherand Climate-Related Natural Disaster Agents, addresses the climate-related natural processes that can cause natural disasters, processes that are impacted and changed (e.g., frequency of occurrence, intensity, areal extent)
From page 62...
... Coastlines prone to recurring severe weather- and extreme events (hurricanes, tropical storm landfall: Gulf of Mexico climate-related severe storms) (e.g., New Orleans, Galveston, natural disasters Population density (remote sensing Tampa)
From page 63...
... , reductions in historic agencies) , correlated with local tropical storm landfall: Gulf of to extreme weather environmental system diversity, and changes in climate-related extreme events Mexico, eastern Atlantic and climate-related the geographic size of habitats.
From page 64...
... ; annual tropical storm number; maximum wind speed; maximum storm-surge height; geographic storm tracks; precipitation; frequency Global extremely low frequency lightning Non-tropical storms (continental) : activity -- measurable equally anywhere Lightning: Schumann Resonances on Earth (extremely low frequency incidence of Other severe storm parameters would be global lightning activity)
From page 65...
... Africa, western United States, and Fire incidence, acres burned, biomass Fire greenhouse gas emissions (CO, Canada burned, fire emissions (CO, CO2)
From page 66...
... other water chemistry Higher sea level amplifies coastal Coastal urban centers (e.g., Venice, New Secondary changes in river gradients erosion, storm damage, permanent York) caused by sea level rise flooding, and land inundation.
From page 67...
... Insect infestations Number of insect infestations, insect type, Worldwide, with emphasis on areas where Global changes in wind patterns and sea landcover, and crop impacts (area, insect infestations may be related to level rise can provoke insect species affected) environmental vectors such as African population changes and catastrophic Historic recurrence Sahel increases in insect number; environmental vectors can transport insects great distances into areas traditionally not impacted by the pests.
From page 68...
... Overall, each of the climate change metrics can be interpreted as having implications for both human health and other human dimensions.
From page 69...
... population resilience and Records of legal and illegal transport of domestic and Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, viability and the ability of a feral animals; animal husbandry/factory farm Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, society to respond to climate practices (use of antibiotics, types of New Orleans, South Asia and other stressors. feedstocks/offal, housing conditions)
From page 70...
... Southern California, Dhaka General morbidity and mortality data (including Respiratory diseases are related Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Beijing, Department of Defense records) to air quality, which will India industrial centers)
From page 71...
... Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, affects the ability of a society Water- use practices after disasters (e.g., floods, Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, to respond to stressors, and it earthquakes) including changes in access to potable New Orleans, South Asia in part is affected by water and wastewater management infrastructure (India/Bangladesh)
From page 72...
... New Orleans, South Asia Maximum and minimum temperatures, heat index (India/Bangladesh) , Luanda Stagnation air mass events Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, O3 estimates due to climate change Increase in heat alerts/warnings Hyderabad Pollen counts, ragweed presence Frequency, severity, distribution, and duration of wildfires Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB)
From page 73...
... southeastern United States and flooding It is important to look at Migration (related to natural disasters; incursion onto populations that are in areas and from coastlines; e.g., see Bhaduri et al., 2002) Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, that are vulnerable to sea level Elderly living alone, poverty status, children, infants, Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, rise and other natural disasters and individuals with disabilities New Orleans, South Asia to gauge their level of Infant mortality (India/Bangladesh)
From page 74...
... Aspects of urban design (risk of urban heat island effect and/or stormwater runoff) Climate Change Climate change policies related Climate change Greenhouse gas emissions by nations, especially Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, to energy efficiency and mitigation compared with voluntary commitments in support Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, renewable energy are often of international policy agreements New Orleans, South Asia economically beneficial, Levels and trends in energy and carbon prices (India/Bangladesh)
From page 75...
... improved fitness Changes in land use with health implications Changes in occupational mixes with health implications (reductions in coal mining) Many of the health effects of Climate change Number of adaptation projects receiving assistance Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, climate change are those that adaptation from international adaptation funds Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, we are already dealing with Changes in infrastructure and settlement patterns in New Orleans, South Asia and therefore already have especially vulnerable areas (India/Bangladesh)


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