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1 Introduction
Pages 15-21

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From page 15...
... Assess the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support DHS decision-making; d) Review the feasibility of creating integrated risk analyses covering the entire DHS program areas, including both terrorist threats and natural disasters, and make recommendations for best practices, including outreach and communications; and e)
From page 16...
... Since its formation in 2002, DHS has espoused the principle of riskinformed decision making. The current DHS Secretary underscored the importance of risk analysis as follows: Development and implementation of a process and methodology to assess national risk is a fundamental and critical element of an overall risk management process, with the ultimate goal of improving the ability of decision makers to make rational judgments about tradeoffs between courses of action to manage homeland security risk.1 For the purposes of this study, the committee accepted the definition of "risk analysis" found in the glossary of the Society for Risk Analysis: A detailed examination including risk assessment, risk evaluation, and risk management alternatives, performed to understand the nature of unwanted, negative consequences to human life, health, property, or the environment; an analytical process to provide information regarding undesirable events; the process of quantification of the probabilities and expected consequences for identified risks.2 In contrast to some definitions, this version does not explicitly include risk perception and risk communication, though the latter are clearly important elements if risk analysis is to be effective.
From page 17...
... The committee focused its attention on risk analysis that informs the middle part of that spectrum, whether the decision making is done within DHS or at a DHS partner entity that actually "owns" and manages a given risk. This focus is in large part because the risk analyses that contribute to decision rules for routine operations and for major policy choices are especially tempered by nontechnical aspects such as public perception and privacy, which, while not at all undermining the importance of solid risk analyses, do complicate an external review of the process that led to those rules.
From page 18...
... As stipulated in the Statement of Task, the committee selected an illustrative sample of risk models and methods to examine in detail in order to carry out the study's evaluation. Its criteria were that the models and processes selected be at least somewhat mature; documented to some extent and; used for a major DHS purpose rather than a niche application and that the set collectively spans the major DHS functions of infrastructure protection, support to first responders, transportation risks, and understanding the risks of weapons of mass destruction and of natural disasters.
From page 19...
... , captured in Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, from which the committee drew heavily.  The Integrated Risk Management Framework (IRMF)
From page 20...
... It also made special efforts to discern how well DHS risk analyses and tools support risk management outside DHS. The site visits enabled subsets of the committee to engage in in-depth interactions with staff members from several DHS offices and programs and also to collect insights from some of DHS's risk management partners.
From page 21...
... Element (b) is addressed in a more targeted fashion in the sections of Chapter 5 that deal with the basic structure of DHS risk models, the need for strong scientific practice, and the need for improving the technical capabilities of DHS staff with respect to risk analysis.


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