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Summary
Pages 1-14

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From page 1...
... For other functions for which the responsibility is shared, effective coordination is required with owners and operators of private facilities; with state, territorial, and local departments of homeland security and emergency management; and with other federal agencies such as the Department of Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, or the Department of Agriculture. While DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats to homeland security, including terrorism, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism, and that balance is reflected in this report.
From page 2...
... EVALUATION OF DHS RISK ANALYSIS CAPABILITIES Approach to Study and Outline of Results Based on its examination of six illustrative risk analysis models and processes -- risk analysis of natural hazards, for critical infrastructure protection, and for allocation of homeland security grants; the Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management (TRAM) and Biological Threat Risk Assessment (BTRA)
From page 3...
... While some DHS work on risk does evaluate uncertainty, the uncertainties in their models and analyses were rarely mentioned by DHS risk analysts during the committee's meetings and site visits, and DHS appears to be at a very immature state with respect to characterizing uncertainty and considering its implications for ongoing data collection and the prioritization of efforts to improve methods and models. Closely tied with the topic of characterizing uncertainty is that of representing properly the precision of risk analyses.
From page 4...
... Recommendation: DHS's current natural hazard risk analysis models, while adequate for near-term decisions, should evolve to support longerterm risk management and policy decisions. Improvements should be made to take into account the consequences of social disruption caused by natural hazards; address long-term systemic uncertainties, such as those arising from effects of climate change; incorporate diverse perceptions of risk impacts; support decision making at local and regional levels; and address the effects of cascading impacts across infrastructure sectors.
From page 5...
... Recommendation: DHS should have a well-funded research program to address social and economic impacts of natural disasters and terrorist attacks and should take steps to ensure that results from the research program are incorporated into DHS's risk analyses. Based on its study, the committee concluded that DHS's risk analyses for infrastructure protection might be useful but certainly can be improved.
From page 6...
... Recommendation: DHS should seek expert, external peer review of the TRAM model in order to evaluate its reliability and recommend steps for strengthening it. Biological Threat Risk Assessment Model DHS's Biological Threat Risk Assessment (BTRA)
From page 7...
... Recommendation: To maximize the transparency of DHS risk analyses for decision-makers, DHS should aim to document its risk analyses as clearly as possible and distribute them with as few constraints as possible. Further, DHS should work toward greater sharing of vulnerability and consequence assessments across infrastructure sectors so that related risk analyses are built on common assessments.
From page 8...
... Integrated Risk Analyses DHS is working toward risk analyses that are increasingly comprehensive, in an attempt to enable comparison of the diverse risks under the department's purview. The committee evaluated the feasibility of creating integrated risk analyses that span all of DHS's areas of responsibility.
From page 9...
... In such cases, the same option might prove able to reduce risks arising from a number of sources such as natural hazards and terrorism. The analysis of alternative risk management options for mitigating risks to a set of activities or assets could then be accomplished through a single quantitative model in much the same way that cost-effectiveness analysis can be used to select a least-cost investment even when the benefits of the various options are incommensurate.
From page 10...
... Recommendation: DHS should prepare scientific guidelines for risk analyses recognizing that different categories of decisions require different approaches to risk analysis strict reliance on quantitative models is not always the best approach. To start, DHS should examine the basic structure of its risk analysis approach.
From page 11...
... Given the lack of that disciplined approach, it is very difficult to know precisely how DHS risk analyses are being done and whether their results are reliable and useful in guiding decisions. There is little understanding of the uncertainties in DHS risk models other than those for natural hazards, and in addition there is a tendency toward false precision.
From page 12...
... Recommendation: DHS should adopt recognized scientific practices for its risk analyses:  DHS should create detailed documentation for all of its risk models, including rigorous mathematical formulations, and subject them to technical and scholarly peer review by experts external to DHS. Documentation should include simple worked-out numerical examples to show how a methodology is applied and how calculations are performed.
From page 13...
... As DHS expands its commitment to risk analysis, personnel who are up-to-date on scientifically grounded methods for carrying out such analyses will be in increasing demand. At present, DHS is heavily dependent on private contractors, academic institutions, and government laboratories for the development, testing, and use of models; acquisition of data for incorporation into models; interpretation of results of modeling efforts; and preparation of risk analyses.
From page 14...
... 14 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY'S APPROACH TO RISK ANALYSIS Recommendation: DHS should convene an internal working group of risk analysis experts to work with its Risk Management and Analysis and Human Resource offices to develop a long-term plan for the development of a multidisciplinary risk analysis staff throughout the department and practical steps for ensuring such a capability on a continuing basis. The nature and size of the staff, and the rate of staffing, should be matched to the department's long-term objectives for risk-based decision making.


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