The Power of Renewables Opportunities and Challenges for China and the United States (2010) / Chapter Skim
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6 Transitioning to a Sustainable Energy Economy
6 Transitioning to a Sustainable Energy Economy
Pages 151-174
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From page 151... ...
. MOVING TOWARD INTEGRATED SYSTEMS Aligning Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Goals For the next decade, deploying energy efficiency technologies will be the lowest-cost option for moderating energy demand (NAS/NAE/NRC, 2009a; 2010b)
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From page 152... ...
Aligning energy efficiency strate gies with longer term renewable energy goals effectively increases the share of renewables in the generation portfolio. Unless the rising demand for energy is addressed, increases in renewables and other clean energy options could be offset by even more rapid increases in primary energy demand, with the balance being met by fossil fuels.
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From page 153... ...
Finally, as a last resort, some of the turbines may need to be curtailed if alternate options are not in place to make use of the power when it is generated. Distributed Generation A major benefit of many renewable power generation technologies is that they are modular, which means they can be deployed at small scales (e.g., on individual buildings)
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From page 154... ...
Distributed generation can play an important part in the transition to a sus tainable energy infrastructure. It offers advantages for utilities, which will be able to incorporate new renewable capacity without the challenges associated with zoning and permitting an entirely new site for development.
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From page 155... ...
Electricity-powered transportation systems also have distinct advantages for an integrated, sustainable energy economy. Although vehicle-to-grid storage is not possible with today's electric vehicles, batteries, and grid infrastructure, a network of electric vehicles can (1)
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From page 156... ...
. Thus efforts to build a sustainable energy economy can make considerable progress by addressing the needs of cities.
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From page 157... ...
. Thus the systematic accumulation and generation of (Campbell, the systematic transferable knowledge from successful experiments can be extremely effective in moving toward a sustainable energy economy (Bai et al., 2010)
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From page 158... ...
The primary mechanisms to adjust for this, or "to level the playing field" for clean energy options (including energy efficiency) , are direct energy taxes, cap-and-trade or cap-and-dividend programs, and targeted subsidies (or reductions in subsidies for less desirable forms of energy)
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From page 159... ...
In 2008, some price controls were relaxed, these subsidies continue to be a subject of debate and, to the extent that they keep fossil fuel-derived power prices artificially low, they will continue to put new renewable power generation at a disadvantage. Bringing Clean Energy into the Mainstream There are several contemporary examples of renewable energy technologies that struggle in the marketplace for non-technical reasons.
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From page 160... ...
In China, the two largest industry associations are the Chinese Wind Energy Association and its parent organization, the Chinese Renewable Energy Society. The American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE)
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From page 161... ...
Although existing technologies are expected to continue to improve and governments and private industry will continue to invest in applied research in support of this, it is also critical that R&D be oriented toward long-term goals for sustainable energy (NSB, 2009)
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From page 162... ...
in renewables and energy efficiency, has a strategic focus on accelerating the commercialization of clean energy technologies. To further this goal, NREL has established a Clean Energy Entrepreneur Center, primarily to educate its own staff on commercialization issues, and a Venture Capitalist Advisory Board to provide external advice to the lab, identify additional capital, and form startup companies (NREL, 2010a)
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From page 163... ...
Funds are also being channeled to programs such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences Solar Energy Action Plan to research technology and equipment for utility-scale (50–100 MW) solar thermal power plants.
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National Science Board to the National Science Foundation to promote collaboration with developing countries to encourage the adoption of sustainable energy technologies (NSB, 2009)
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From page 165... ...
65 TRANSITIONING TO A SUSTAINAbLE ENERGy ECONOMy 60 0 Geothermal Solar Thermal Wind Biomass MSW 40 0 TWh 20 0 0 20 08 2020 2030 2035 FIGURE 6-1 U.S. non-hydroelectric renewable electricity generation by energy source, 2008–2035 (billion kWh)
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From page 166... ...
Electrical Production by Major Energy Source: History and Forecast Million Kilowatts 1970 1990 2007 2020 2030 Coal 704.4 1,594.0 2,020.6 2,197.6 2,310.8 Petroleum 184.2 126.6 65.7 49.0 50.2 Natural gas 372.9 372.8 893.2 714.3 976.4 Nuclear electric power 21.8 576.9 806.5 876.3 890.1 Conventional hydroelectric power 251.0 292.9 248.3 298.7 299.9 Other (including other renewable) 0.9 78.4 132.2 437.2 527.1 TOTAL 1,535.2 3,041.6 4,166.5 4,573.1 5,054.5 Share of Total Percent Share Coal 45.9 52.4 48.5 48.1 45.7 Petroleum 12.0 4.2 1.6 1.1 1.0 Natural gas 24.3 12.3 21.4 15.6 19.3 Nuclear electric power 1.4 19.0 19.4 19.2 17.6 Conventional hydroelectric power 16.3 9.6 6.0 6.5 5.9 Other (including other renewable)
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From page 167... ...
produced a report in 2007 assessing how the country could transition from its dependence on fossil-fuel, energy-intensive infrastructure to a cleaner, more sustainable energy system. This report posited that, even if nuclear, conventional hydro, and renewables development were accelerated, coal would still provide about 42 percent of the country's primary energy supply in 2050.
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From page 168... ...
Source: 6-3.eps CREDSRG, 2008. 30% Mix of wind capacity 25.3% 25% Mix of wind electricity 20% Development Industry established Wind power a major resource scales up 15% 11.7% 10% 12.9% 6.8% 5% 0.3% 1.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.6% 3.2% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Medium term Near term Long term Wind market becomes mature Make efforts to establish a Wind industry sound industry matures and costs come down FIGURE 6-4 Wind technology roadmap 4.eps Source: CREDSRG, 2008.
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From page 169... ...
The High Costs of Delay In the aggressive scenario developed for the ASES (2009) report, the 2008 predictions for renewable energy/electrical energy industry in 2030 are signifi cantly lower than the 2007 predictions:3 3 The 2008 renewable energy and electrical energy forecast can be found in Management Informa tion Services Inc., Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Driers for the st Century, a report prepared for the American Solar Energy Association, November 2007; ASES (2009)
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From page 170... ...
Moderate Advanced Industry Segment Base Case Scenario Scenario Wind $5.6 $22 $89 Photovoltaics 13.5 27 45 Solar thermal 0.2 0.9 29 Hydroelectric power 4.8 5.1 6.8 Geothermal 2.9 8.2 40 Biomass Ethanol 22.6 45 82 Biodiesel 1.3 2.7 7.6 Biomass power 32.3 68 160 Fuel cells 5.2 14.1 45 Hydrogen 4.1 12.2 36 Total, Private Industry 92.4 205.2 540.4 Federal government 0.8 1 2.8 DOE laboratories 2.3 2.6 7.8 State and local government 1.5 2.2 5.7 Total Government 4.6 5.8 16.3 Trade & professional associations & 0.8 1.5 3.6 nongovernmental ogranizations TOTAL, ALL SECTORS $97.8 $212.5 $560.3 Source: ASES, 2009. • Projected real renewable energy revenues in 2030 are about 10 percent ($55 billion)
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From page 171... ...
FINDINGS The scale and diversity of the energy system in terms of existing infrastructure and economic importance, in the United States and China, should not be underestimated. Transforming the existing model of fossil-fuel combustion into a lowcarbon energy infrastructure will require the active involvement of a wide range of actors beyond the energy and technology sector.
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From page 172... ...
Collaboration may not focus directly on renewable power generation technologies but may instead focus on key "enablers" of a sustainable energy economy. Successful projects might be considered experiments, and the United States and China could document and analyze them and then support similar projects in other cities.
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From page 173... ...
• China and the United States should cooperate on developing the standards and infrastructure for systems that optimize vehicle charging behavior, renewable power generation, and reduced emissions from the transportation sector. Devel oping and implementing these complex systems at scale will require substantial investments, and so joint pilot projects and demonstrations could be more effi cient, in terms of expenditures and diffusion of technological learning.
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