The Power of Renewables Opportunities and Challenges for China and the United States (2010) / Chapter Skim
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From page 23... ...
This is followed by summaries of the geothermal and hydrokinetic energy sources under development in the United States that may have applicability in China. China is at a comparatively early stage of assess ing its renewable resources for power production, and so the balance of the chapter presents additional information on what has been done in the United States, which should be instructive as China improves its own capacity in this field.
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From page 24... ...
and economic information to support integrated resource planning and development for policy makers, industry, and project developers. As costs for renewable energy technologies come down, regions with lower quality wind and solar resources may be able to reassess their economic potential.
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Windy Land Characterization Key Variables Wind Energy Technical Potential Reference Installed Annual Total Excluded Available Hub height Spatial resolution capacity at 5 generation million km2 million km2 million km2 m km MW/km2 GW million GWh EJ 2.57 1.04 50 5×5 5,200 11.4 40 Elliott et al., 1991 2.57 80 0.2 × 0.2 to 5 x 5 7,000–8,000 15–20 50–60 Elliott et al., 2010 AWS Truewind, LLC 2.57 0.47 2.10 80 0.2 × 0.2 10,500 36.9 135 and NREL, 2010 5
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From page 26... ...
, and an 80 m hub height tripled the technical potential to 37 million GWh, or 135 EJ of energy. Figure 2-1 shows the significant changes in technical wind resource potential with changes in turbine hub height for the state of Indiana; hub height was raised from 50 to 100 m, which increased wind-speed intensities in a large portion of the state.
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From page 27... ...
Wind speeds at 50m 70m 10 0m 2-1.eps 70 m, and 100 7 FIGURE 2-1 Comparison of the wind energy resource at 50 m,landscape m for the state of Indiana, United States. Source: DOE, 2008c.
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From page 28... ...
. However, based on the 2010 estimates of technical potential, the extractable potential would be 7 million GWh/yr using only Class 3 and higher wind-speed areas in the contiguous United States (AWS Wind, LLC and NREL, 2010)
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Using wind turbines at 50 m hub height to generate 1.1 million GWh/yr was projected to require 300 GW of installed capacity. The affordable-to-harness installed capacity (economic potential)
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FIGURE 2-2 Modeled economic potential of wind resources in the United States shown as a supply curve in which energy costs include connection to 10 percent of existing transmission grid capacity within 500 miles of the resource. Production tax credits are not included.
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345-499 500-699 700-799 1000 (DC) 2-3.eps FIGURE 2-3 A concept of transmission with one technically feasible transmission grid of 765 kV overlayed on wind resource data combining landscape low- and high-resolution datasets used to model the 20 percent wind scenario using NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)
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From page 32... ...
Combined Onshore and Offshore Wind Resources The "20 percent by 2030" scenario included 50 GW offshore and 250 GW onshore wind resources to provide 1.2 million GWh/yr, reductions in capital costs of 10 percent over the next two decades, and capacity increases of about 15 percent (corresponding to a 15 percent increase in annual energy generation by each wind plant)
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FIGURE 2-4 Distribution of wind power density in China at 50 m above ground. Source: China Meteorological Administration.
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However, due to exclusions, primarily for altitude, China's available resources and thus technical potential is much smaller, approximately half the total of the United States'. A large proportion of China's wind resources are located in Tibet and Qinghai provinces, which are excluded from calculations because of their high (> 3,500 m)
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Resolution (km) 5 MW/km2 GW Million GWh EJ 1.46 0.69 0.77 50 5×5 2380 5.2 19 3.60 2.81 0.79 70 5×5 2850 6.3 23 4.19 3.14 1.05 110 5×5 3800 8.4 30 Source: CWERA/CMA, 2010.
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wind resources have regional boundaries and temporal inconsistencies, it is important to identify the richest resources for wind power development (Table 2-4)
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; 300–400 W/m2 respondence of wind power density (wind class) is > 600 W/m2 (landscape (Class 3)
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FIGURE 2-6 Offshore wind power potential by numerical methods at 50 m hub height 2-6.eps excluding areas subjected to strong and super typhoons in the past 45 years. Correspon bitmap dence of wind power density (wind class)
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China also has rich offshore wind resources, all of which have Class 3 or higher winds and are suitable for the development of grid-connected wind farms (Figure 2-6)
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. This analysis concluded that the southwestern United States has a CSP electricity peak-generation capacity potential of 7,000 to 11,000 GW in the 225,000 km2 of land that has no primary use (Figure 2-7b)
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Assuming that 20 percent of the technical potential could become economi cally feasible, 3 to 8 million GWh could be produced. The current installed CSP capacity in the United States is 0.43 GW.
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Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory resource analysis upgraded from WGA, 2006a. a 2-7a.eps landscape bitmap
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Land and slope exclusions are shown on the right, for which the technical concentrated solar power potential of the region is 15 to 40 million GWh (with capacity factors of 25 to 50 per cent)
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Costs for power generation are an order of magnitude greater -- presently, the cost of solar PV-generated power ranges from 1.5 to 3.0 Yuan/kWh, depending on solar energy resource zoning (Table 2-6)
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Zone Territory Distribution ≥ 1,750 Richest I 17.4 Most of Tibet, south of Xinjiang, west of Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia Richer II 1,400~1,750 42.7 North of Xinjiang, northwest of China, east of Inner Mongolia, Huabei, north of Jiangsu, Huangtu Plateau, east of Qinghai and Gansu, west of Sichuan, Hengduan mountain, coastal of Fujian and Guangdong, Hainan Rich III 1,050~1,400 36.3 Hilly county in southeast of China, the reaches of Hanshui River, west of Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi ≤ 1,050 Moderate IV 3.6 Parts of Sichuan and Guizhou NOTE: Regions with rich solar energy, including richest, richer, and rich zones, account for more than 96 percent of China's territory.
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1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 Estimated production costa (Yuan/kWh) 1.3 1.7 2.1 3.0 Solar power potential (thousand GWh)
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shows a different geographical distribution of the biomass resource base (Figure 2-10)
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(2009) , the authors differentiated between inventory studies of existing and potential biomass resources and economic studies that take into account the cost of supply, generally referred to as biomass supply curves.
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/ dry ton, and at 35 percent efficiency for the conversion of heat from biomass combustion into electrical energy, would provide 1.1 EJ of energy.7 In other words, 100 percent of the sustainable biomass produced domestically in 2005, if used entirely for electricity generation, would produce 0.306 million GWh/yr of electricity, or 7.3 percent of the 2007 U.S. domestic electricity generation.
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However, a plausible scenario might be that 75 percent of this biomass would be used to produce cellulosic ethanol or other biofuels, and only 25 percent would be available for electricity generation. In that case, 250 million tons of biomass, which is projected to be potentially available in 35 to 40 years if more than 60 percent of the land area of the continental United States were dedicated to pro ducing biomass, would produce 0.416 million GWh of electricity, 10 percent of the 2007 U.S.
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When accounting for further development (improved collection methods for agricultural waste, increases in industrial and municipal effluents) , this resource base could eventually double.
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Temperature and depth > and <3 km Number of identified systems 52 high temperature 241 high and moderate temperature Characterization of identified Poor Abundant exploration and production systems data Treatment of reservoir Idealized Improved models with Monte Carlo performance analysis for uncertainties Undiscovered resources Rough estimates Better quantitative estimates Enhanced geothermal Mentioned but not Included; analysis and methodological systems estimated development continues Source: Williams and Pierce, 2008. GEOTHERMAL POWER IN THE UNITED STATES Hydrothermal Energy Geothermal energy exists as underground reservoirs of steam, hot water, and hot dry rocks in Earth's crust (NAS/NAE/NRC, 2010a)
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A nationwide panel of experts estimated that the shallow hydrothermal resource base had an availability of 30 GW, with an additional potential of 120 GW from unidentified hydro thermal resources that have no surface manifestations (Green and Nix, 2006)
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Enhanced Geothermal Systems Enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) are engineered reservoirs created to extract heat from low-permeability and low-porosity rock formations.
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The mean electric power capacity potential from unconventional geothermal resources (high temperature, low permeability) EGSs is 518 GW, with a range of 345 GW (95 percent probability)
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wave resource is off southern Alaska, which has an estimated resource base of 1.25 million GWh/yr (EPRI, 2005) , but collecting and transmitting this as electrical energy to consumers in the lower 48 states represents a significant challenge.
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Southern AK ME, NH, MA, RI, NY, NJ 1250 TWh per Year 120 TWh per Year Midway Island Northern HI WA, OR, CA 300 TWh per Year 440 TWh per Year Hawaii Johnson Island FIGURE 2-15 U.S. wave-energy resources.
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INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING Clean and Diversified Energy for the West, a project of the U.S. WGA is identifying ways to increase renewable energy, energy efficiency, and clean energy technologies in the mix for meeting the overall energy needs of the western United States.9 Since 2006, WGA has used multiple resource assessments to inform its decisions about the development of 30 GW of clean energy by 2015.
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From page 59... ...
These include low-quality wind, solar thermal, solar PV, undiscovered conventional geothermal potential, enhanced geothermal systems, and other viable renewable resources. Thus, the assessment of conventional geothermal resources was limited to British Columbia, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah which have known high-potential conventional geothermal resources.
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A reassessment of China's wind resources using higher resolution wind resource data and higher turbine hub heights could help to identify new wind development sites. A similar assessment in the United States led to a reevaluation of wind resource potential in many states.
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Mapping multiple layers of resources and infrastructure may facilitate co-development of biopower and biofuels and capitalize on the economic potential of biorefineries. Modeling of hydrokinetic energy, which is just starting in both countries, has great uncertainties because of weather-related disasters and unpredictability.
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