Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades The Third Biennial Review - 2010 (2010) / Chapter Skim
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6 Use of Science in Decision Making
6 Use of Science in Decision Making
Pages 205-243
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From page 205... ...
The committee then evaluates the effectiveness of current modeling tools. Finally, recent tools for assessing ecosystem services are reviewed for their potential value to restoration decision making.
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A Draft Compre hensive Everglades Restoration Plan Adaptive Management Integration Guide (RECOVER, 2010a) has been through several iterations and was recently made available for public comment.
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FIGURE 6-1 Nine activities to integrate adaptive management into the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. Figure 6-1.eps SOURCE: RECOVER (2010a)
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From page 208... ...
CERP staff have been advised by legal counsel that collaboration with non-agency stakeholders, defined as a two-way dialogue and working together to define and solve prob lems, is not permitted under FACA in CERP meetings convened by a federal entity. Instead, such collaboration is only permitted through meetings convened by non-federal entities or a group established under a FACA exemption, such as the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force (RECOVER, 2010a)
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From page 209... ...
Although not unexpected, these disagreements ultimately impact project design and monitoring and assessment activities. For this reason, the CERP Adaptive Management Integration Guidance document represents an important step toward developing more consistency in how adaptive management is defined and applied during CERP program and project implementation to achieve restoration and learning benefits.
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From page 210... ...
Whereas typical CERP project monitoring plans only include activities not under the auspices of the MAP, which can create challenges when integrating project level and systemwide monitoring information (Heisler and Ehlinger, 2009) , the ecological monitoring plan for Biscayne Bay has been more deliberately coordinated with the MAP and will use MAP performance measures, results, and protocols whenever possible.
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Scientists report assessment results to the Design Coordination Team (DCT) , which includes representatives from the USACE, South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD)
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This committee encountered strongly contrasting opinions regarding the capacity for scientific feedback to influence management and policy decisions in the current system. Some individuals complained that RECOVER has been marginalized in decision making and relegated to a passive reporting role rather than participating directly in programmatic review or decisions.
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Some restoration scientists suggested that the potential for scientific feedback would be increased by adding senior scientists to the Quality Review Board or by appointing senior scientists to the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force, either in voting or non-voting roles. Other alternative models proposed having independent (non-agency)
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From page 214... ...
. The MAP has as its goal the development of a single, integrated and systemwide plan to be used by RECOVER and CERP agencies for holistically determining the state of the Everglades ecosystem during the restoration.
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The 2010 System Status Report is also discussed briefly, although the report was released too late for a thorough review by the committee. MAP 2009 The recent revision of the CERP MAP, Part I (RECOVER, 2009; also called MAP 2009)
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, which was the first large-scale test of the monitoring and assessment methodologies. Another notable addition to this revision is an explicit consideration of global uncertainties, defined as "factors that have wide-ranging effects and cut across and affect the success of all restoration programs." Included in the analysis of such global uncertainties are climate change and sea level rise, invasive exotic plants (now considered one of the high-priority issues facing the CERP)
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This committee reiterates the critical importance of the MAP for informing implementation and management decisions, as well as for providing assessments of restoration progress.
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, does an excellent job of communi cating the scientific underpinnings of the system and the status of each indica tor. The authors give a "big picture" summary, which emphasizes the problems emanating from water quality and quantity challenges, regional issues (e.g., decline of the northern and southern estuaries)
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• Juvenile Pink Shrimp • Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zone • Invasive Exotic Plants The explicit criteria used to select the above indicators are 1. Is the indicator relevant to the ecosystem?
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From page 220... ...
provide detailed assessments of the state of the Everglades ecosystem. Extensive monitoring data are compiled and analyzed to identify ecosystem trends and to provide pre-CERP reference conditions that will be used to assess CERP project-related ecosystem changes, once projects are implemented.
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RESEARCH AND MODELING TOOLS TO SUPPORT RESTORATION Substantial research progress has occurred since the CERP was launched in 1999 that has helped CERP planners understand the nature and function of the current and the historical South Florida ecosystem. In this section, the committee discusses advances in research, synthesis, and modeling that have contributed to an improved foundation for decision making.
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From page 222... ...
With sea level rise, it is likely that there will be increased salt water intrusion into wellfields and the elimina tion of critical groundwater for water supplies. Depending on the rate of sea level rise, there could be marked changes in some of South Florida's low elevation landscapes.
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Implications for the CERP In the face of these numerous challenges, NRC (2008) concluded that "Everglades restoration efforts are even more essential to improve the condition of the South Florida ecosystem and strengthen its resiliency as it faces additional stresses in the future.
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to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the response of the hydrologic system to changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise. Precipi tation was increased +10 percent and temperature was increased by 1.5oC, changes thought to be a reasonable expectation of climate change that might occur in South Florida (Figure 6-5)
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The analysis suggests that the system could accommodate a 10 percent increase in precipitation with an increase in temperature, which enhances loss by evapotranspiration. Analysis of sensitivity to sea level rise suggests that the discharge capacity of control structures will be impaired under modest increases in sea level (Figure 6-6)
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From page 226... ...
To put this in perspective, at current rates of sea level rise, the mean sea level at Key West is expected to increase 0.3 to 0.4 m by 2100. In order to mitigate against salt water intrusion under a sea level rise scenario, the stage of coastal canals would
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From page 227... ...
The CERP agencies should engage climate scientists with academic institutions and the NOAA to improve both global and regional circulation model predictions for South Florida at the temporal and spatial scales required for improved water resources planning and management. It is also critical that South Florida climate change and sea level rise research findings and analysis of the potential effects of these changes be integrated with relevant social science research and effectively communicated to restoration and water management decision makers.
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From page 228... ...
Only in the past few years have researchers begun to generate a clear understanding of how the distinctive Everglades landscape was formed and is maintained. Research on the maintenance of ridges, sloughs, and tree islands over the past 10 years has demonstrated a conclusive connection between the nature of the flow of water through the system and the morphology and distri bution of the features.
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From page 229... ...
The pollen data strongly suggest that the even when water levels varied, sloughs have been consistent in their locations, although they changed in size as the climate varied between wet and dry conditions. Long-term data show that the ridge and slough topography is a product of varying water levels, so that successful restoration efforts will also include variable water depths.
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(n.d.) hypothesized that tree islands control the phosphorus content of the surrounding marsh water, which would have large potential ramifications to water management, if verified.
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The SFWMD is also conducting extensive research on the dynamics between flows and landscape pattern in its Loxahatchee Impounded Landscape Assessment (LILA) project.2 The project seeks to define hydrologic regimes that sustain an Everglades ridge and slough ecosystem using four 20-acre models simulating ridges, sloughs, and tree islands, each with controllable water levels and flows.
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By attending and presenting research at these conferences, Everglades researchers can also learn lessons from other environmental systems that may be applicable in South Florida. At the more regional level, conferences such as the Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER)
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The report was not released in time for in-depth review by the committee. RECOVER anticipates that the report will serve as a basis for addressing key dilemmas in Everglades restoration and for updating the restoration goals, targets, and performance measures.
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There are two components to simulate water quality; the first is for transport of mobile materials, both soluble and dissolved, and the second is a flexible biogeochemistry module that allows the model user to define the state variables and process equations in the input files. SFWMM The South Florida Water Management Model simulates hydrology and water systems and is widely accepted as the best available tool for analyzing structural and/or operational changes to the complex water management system in South Florida at the regional scale.
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EAA Storage Reservoir 2 × 2 miles square CERP Project grid Planning tool Regional; Version 3.0 SFWMD for comparing Variable grid sizes https://my.sfwmd.gov/ management ranging from portal/page/portal/pg_ consequences 0.1-2 miles grp_sfwmd_hesm/portlet _rsm_peerreview/tab 2564291/nsrsm_pr_goals_ web.pdf
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, still under develop ment, is ultimately intended to replace the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM or the "2 × 2")
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As a result near-term prospects of utilizing integrated regional hydrologic-ecological modeling efforts to support CERP design, planning, or management decisions are dim. ECONOMIC VALUATION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FOR EVERGLADES DECISION MAKING The concept of ecosystem services3 (Daily, 1997)
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. In this section, the committee provides some background on economic valua tion of ecosystem services and then considers to what degree and under what circumstances an effort to estimate the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by the South Florida Ecosystem could inform CERP decision making.
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However, some ecosystem services cannot be valued either because they cannot be adequately measured or because existing valuation methods are inappropriate or unreliable. Numerous taxonomies can be applied to the types and sources of economic value and economic valuation methods.
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Assessment of Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Everglades Context The nature and complexity of the Everglades ecosystem poses daunting chal lenges to any comprehensive ecosystem service valuation effort. A decision to undertake the economic valuation of ecosystem services needs to recognize the critical importance of integrating the ecology (i.e., quantification of the ecologi cal production function)
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From page 241... ...
Therefore, the committee concludes that a comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem services is probably not a high priority for CERP planning in the near or medium term. The committee does support the development of an improved understanding of the ecosystem services provided by the South Florida ecosystem, and restoration planners should look for opportunities where the economic valuation of ecosystem services could be useful and should improve the methods of economic valuation of ecosystem services that have the most promising application to the Everglades restoration.
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From page 242... ...
Research during the past few years has led to notable advances in our understanding of climate trends in South Florida and the sensitivity of the regional water management system to changes in climate and sea level. Research has also improved understanding of the pre-drainage Everglades and has clari fied the key parameters governing the formation and maintenance of landscape features in the ridge and slough ecosystem.
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From page 243... ...
For this reason, economic valuation of ecosystem services is unlikely to assist near-term decision making. Everglades restoration planners should be alert to specific opportunities when the economic valuation of ecosystem services has the potential to be useful, and, especially, to improve the methods for economic valuation of ecosystem services and adapt them to the Everglades.
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