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1 Introduction
Pages 1-6

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From page 1...
... Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change to consider lessons learned about analysis of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation from the experience of Working Group II in the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (National Research Council, 2009b)
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... INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS Thomas Wilbanks, chair of NRC's Committee on the Human Dimen sions of Global Change, welcomed the participants on behalf of the com mittee and the Climate Research Committee, which jointly planned and organized the workshop. He pointed out the importance of getting the science right for the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
From page 3...
... He emphasized that what will matter in the future is not only how much climate changes, but also how socioeconomic futures develop. As an example, he described a World Wildlife Fund project in Amazonia, intended to identify refugia2 for protected species.
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... For example, the core social sciences are generally skeptical of efforts to make socioeconomic projections far into the future. Wilbanks discussed an effort, in which he participated, to estimate coastal populations at risk from climate change in 2080.
From page 5...
... Wilbanks said that responses to the limited state of the science have included development of rich narrative "story lines," such as were created for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and for some economic projections to 2050; describing alternative futures of interest and working back from them with quantitative scenarios; and using participatory analyticdeliberative processes to generate qualitative descriptions of futures. Wilbanks identified four key questions for the workshop: 1.


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