Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment Report of a Workshop (2010) / Chapter Skim
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4 Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties in Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Mitigation
4 Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties in Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Mitigation
Pages 21-28
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are a step in the right direction, he emphasized that people are not good at predicting the future of basic parameters, such as primary energy con sumption. He suggested thinking about three things: 1.
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BRIEF PRESENTATIONS ON SPECIFIC DRIVERS Brian O'Neill spoke about the relationships of demographic drivers and emissions on climate outcomes.2 First, he noted that the relationships between story lines and demographic drivers are often thought to be much more solid than they are. Second, emission scenarios can be consistent with a wide range of demographic drivers.
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His conclusion was that, although demography does matter to emissions, a full range of demographic changes is consistent with a wide range of emission pathways. Gary Yohe spoke about socioeconomic drivers of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV)
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He identified a series of key driving forces of change in transportation GHG emissions: the pattern of urbanization; growing mobility related to globalization; technological innovation (including the availability of lower carbon vehicles and fuels and advances in information, communication, and automation) ; energy security and prices; transport security and terrorism; public health and safety issues (e.g., changes in physical activity, air pollution, and traffic accidents)
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Institutions embody ideas about what is right and codify practices. Berkhout said that there is a need to include politi cal scientists, sociologists, and anthropologists in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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Gitay presented a list of drivers of ecosystem change: urbanization and coastal settlement, including water withdrawals; land use and land cover change; trade, including in cash crops; population distribu tion; conflict; migration and urbanization; technological changes; policy changes; behavioral change, including values, choices, and resource consumption patterns; and, finally, climate change itself. Gerald Nelson spoke on food, nutrition, and bioenergy issues.
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. He said that nutritionists are rarely concerned about the effects of climate change on nutrition and proposed that this is worth further examination.
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DESCRIBING SOCIOECONOMIC FUTURES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSION The following issues were raised in the discussion: • nteractions between mitigation and adaptation in agriculture (e.g., i holding more carbon in the soil leads to better water retention, which increases productivity and diversifies sources of income) ; • need for serious thought to very different worlds with the same a radiative forcing, such as one with the entire biosphere managed for biofuels, food, etc., and one in which biosphere performs more traditional ecological roles; • he importance of the difficult-to-monetize quantities; t • arge expenditures on cultivars in Africa without investments on l agricultural extension to implement them; • he need to construct adaptation scenarios in a multisector context t (e.g., Can goals for technologically driven increases in crop yields be reached given expected changes in climate and flood regimes?
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