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7 Reports from Breakout Groups
Pages 41-46

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From page 41...
... It will be important to focus on extreme events and other particular events that might be important, making narra tives consistent with actual development pathways -- for example, it might be useful to talk in terms of the Millennium Development Goals, which she noted are likely to be unmet in any event. Ebi suggested that nonclimate events will be more important than climate in the short term.
From page 42...
... IMPACT, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY ISSUES TO 2100 Ferenc Toth, Rapporteur Ferenc Toth identified the following themes from the discussion: • t is important in this time frame to examine factors with large iner I tia, which change mainly in the long term, such as education lev els, income distributions, urbanization, resource availability, and expertise. There is a need to encourage research on linkages involv ing factors about which less is known.
From page 43...
... • embers questioned whether the community is organized to do M all of what is needed, suggesting that an expert workshop or other tools could be considered to address this issue. SCENARIOS FOR MITIGATION TO 2100 Michael Mastrandrea, Rapporteur Michael Mastrandrea identified the following issues that were raised in the discussion: • he most important factors to include in scenarios include the T Kaya identity elements (population, income, energy intensity, and emissions intensity)
From page 44...
... Moreover, in a society dependent on local resources, information may have to be downscaled to local eco logical regions, which is different from other kinds of downscaling. POSSIBLE PRODUCTS FOR THE FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR WORKING GROUPS 2 AND 3 Elmar Kriegler, Rapporteur Based on the breakout group discussion, Elmar Kriegler suggested that the Fifth Assessment Report could include different levels of radiative forcing (e.g., in 2100)
From page 45...
... Linda Mearns reported that, in the breakout discussion, some participants expressed the desire for IAMs to provide regional economic insights to establish differential adaptive capacities, input on willingness to maintain adaptation infrastructures, explorations of how land use change constrains socioeconomic change, estimates of the effects of different energy mixes on the multiple stressors for a region, analyses of national security issues, and insights on "trigger points" (e.g., when do food prices get high enough to cause enough hunger to lead to political destabilization?


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