High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates Better Data, Better Measures, Better Decisions (2011) / Chapter Skim
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5 Early Warning Indicators
5 Early Warning Indicators
Pages 61-72
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From page 61... ...
The research documents associations between certain behaviors and dropping out, but does not necessarily support conclusions that these characteristics cause students to drop out. It could well be that other factors are the underlying problem, and these factors cause students both to become disengaged from school and to drop out.
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From page 62... ...
. Early research suggested that certain social and family background factors were associated with an increased risk of dropping out, such as being poor, minority, from a single-parent family, or from a family with low educational attainment or low support for education (Barro and Kolstad, 1987; Eckstrom et al., 1987; Haveman, Wolfe, and Spaulding, 1991; Mare, 1980, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990, 1992; Natriello, McDill, and Pallas, 1990; Rumberger, 1995)
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From page 63... ...
Insights learned from this research suggested that risk factors may cumulate from year to year and that there may be benefit to measuring trends in students' status on the risk factors over time (Gleason and Dynarski, 2002)
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From page 64... ...
Another study, with the Los Angeles Unified School District, found that each failed course in the middle school grades reduced the odds of graduating, with failed classes in middle school reducing the odds more than failed classes in high school (Silver, Saunders, and Zarate, 2008)
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From page 65... ...
The study also revealed that students who were late-entrance English language learners and special education students taught in substantially separate classrooms had a 75 percent risk of not graduating. Balfanz and colleagues also considered the grade in which the indicator (failing math, failing English, high absenteeism, poor behavior grade)
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From page 66... ...
Furthermore, nearly 25 percent of the entering freshmen with achievement test scores in the top quartile were off-track by the end of the year, and only 38 percent of this group graduated from high school on time. The researchers also examined the relationships between on-time graduation and background factors, including race/ethnicity, gender, economic status, parental education, and achievement in elementary school.
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From page 67... ...
DEvELOPINg DATA SySTEMS TO IDENTIFy AT-RISk STuDENTS The studies discussed above suggest that a number of routinely collected variables can be used to identify students at risk of dropping out. Early intervention is likely to be key to reducing dropout rates, and these findings provide guidance on ways to identify at-risk students as early as middle school.
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From page 68... ...
The researchers identified three categories of risk factors for their students: 1. Academic: a semester grade of F in two or more classes or dismissal from an Individualized Education Plan at the middle school level.
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From page 69... ...
Current policy now requires students with excessive absences to spend time before and after school making up the missed assignments. (For additional details about the Sioux Falls studies, see National Forum on Education Statistics, 2009.)
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From page 70... ...
predictive of dropping out in one school district may not be equally predictive in another. We encourage states and local school districts to conduct studies to determine the extent to which the research findings apply to their students.
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From page 71... ...
· mplement the student engagement case manager intervention at elementary I and middle schools utilizing existing staff. · valuate the implementation of aligning elementary and middle school inter E ventions with targeted risk factors and early indicators of school failure.
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From page 72... ...
72 HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT, GRADUATION, AND COMPLETION RATES administrators to access information that will be useful to them in the course of usual educational practice. We also note that it will be important for states and districts to evaluate the impact of any policy interventions that are implemented to determine their effectiveness and to consider any unintended consequences associated with the policies.
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