Solar and Space Physics A Science for a Technological Society (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Mission Development and Assessment Process
Appendix E: Mission Development and Assessment Process
Pages 365-379
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From page 365... ...
The flow of activities began with white paper submissions by the science community in November 2010, followed by concept evaluation and a mission design effort culminating with initial mission selection in April 2011. The subsequent iterative CATE process began in April and ended in September 2011.
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From page 366... ...
The cornerstone assumption for the mission design process was that cost-effective mission concepts demand a requirements-focused design combined with overall system simplicity. The general system design baseline resulting from these assumptions was a single-string (with selective redundancy in some cases)
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From page 367... ...
• In an integrated fashion, quantify the total threats to costs from schedule growth, the costs of maturing technology, and the threat to costs owing to mass growth resulting in the need for a larger, more costly launch vehicle. The general CATE methodology for cost assessment is presented in Figure E.2.
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From page 368... ...
Consequently, specific vehicle costs are unknown or could not be provided except in a broad cost range enveloping numerous vehicle types. As discussed above, smaller vehicles, beginning with the 1 The 70th percentile point represents the total cost (including reserves)
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From page 369... ...
For the vehicles baselined in the design studies, the potential for cost growth and associated cost risk is considered low, although there is some risk related to availability of a particular vehicle type. MISSION COST RESULTS The cost comparison between the six mission concepts and associated descoped missions is shown in Figure E.4.
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From page 370... ...
The risk rankings are particularly illuminating when compared to previous surveys, in which most missions were ranked in the medium-high and high categories. A combined assessment of cost and technical risk leads to the conclusion that simplified mission concepts similar to IMAP, DYNAMIC, and the descoped MEDICI recommended by the survey committee fall into the range of PI-led missions that can be successfully executed within the scope of the Solar-Terrestrial Probes (STP)
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From page 371... ...
The CATE validation tool used for this survey and all past surveys is the CoBRA tool developed by the Aerospace Corporation. Figures E.7 and E.8 map the mission candidates onto cost and schedule grids for comparison with successful missions of varying complexity plus "anchor missions" considered to be similar in size and complexity.
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From page 372... ...
The costs of only three of the PI-led missions with complexity greater than or equal to 40 percent exceeded the complexity-dependent median cost for all missions. The distributions of individual mission costs relative to the overall median cost are shown in Figure E.10 for PI-led missions and separately for the other missions with 40 to 80 percent complexity.
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From page 373... ...
– What does our space environment teach us about universal, fundamental physical processes? Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S-Curve • Payload (10 instruments)
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From page 374... ...
– How does behavior of the neutral lower atmosphere couple into plasma behavior in the upper atmosphere? Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S-Curve • Payload – WIND: Along track vector wind fields, density, temp – FUV: Cross track scanner – NWM: Neutral wind meter – IVM: Ion velocity meter – INMS: Neutral/ion mass spectrometer 2 • Power: 1.5 m GaAs two-axis array, 416 W End of Life • Launch Mass: 286 kg • Launch Date: 2015+ (on two Taurus 2110 vehicles)
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From page 375... ...
The proposed launch vehicle for MEDICI is a Falcon 9, which has lift capability that easily accommodates the additional imager.
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From page 376... ...
376 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY BOX E.4 CATE OUTPUT PRODUCT FOR THE GEOSPACE DYNAMICS CONSTELLATION MISSION GDC -- Geospace Dynamics Constellation
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From page 377... ...
The attributes of the PI-led mode that contributed to the success of these programs were summarized in the Principal-Investigator-Led Missions report and included: • Direct involvement of the PI in shaping the decisions and the mission approach to realizing the science objectives; • Two-step competitive selection: initial selection of two to four missions that receive funding for preparing mission concept studies prior to final selection of one or two missions for implementation; • Standard evaluation process of technical, management, cost, and other factors prior to final selection; and • Capped mission cost with a termination review and threat of cancellation if the mission is projected to exceed its cost cap. The cost estimates from the CATE process do not take into account the potential cost reduction associated with PI-led mode implementation.
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From page 378... ...
Figure E-8 10000 Successful Missions Anchor Missions Successful PI- Led Missions 1000 RBSP Cost (FY12$M) Successful Missions Trendline SDO Current Discovery Cost Cap GLAST ACE MMS 100 GALEX THEMIS Single Satellites Only Plotted 10 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Complexity Index FIGURE E.9 CATE missions on Complexity Based Risk Assessment cost versus complexity plot.
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From page 379... ...
and non-PI-led mission costs (red) as a fraction of the median cost of all missions with 40 to 80 percent complexity (green trendline in Figure E.9)
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