Intelligence Analysis Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (2011) / Chapter Skim
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5 Qualitative Analysis for the Intelligence Community--Kiron K. Skinner
5 Qualitative Analysis for the Intelligence Community--Kiron K. Skinner
Pages 101-114
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From page 101... ...
Each factor adds a layer of difficulty that could inhibit systematic qualitative analysis. Yet qualitative analysis is an intelligence community (IC)
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From page 102... ...
. Other structured analytic techniques presented in tradecraft manuals include Alternative Futures, Chronologies and Time Lines, Description Detection, Devil's Advocacy, Force Field Analysis, HighImpact/Low-Probability Analysis, Hypotheses Generator, Indicators, Key Assumptions Check, Multiple Scenarios Generation, Outside-In Thinking, Pre-Mortem Assessment, Quadrant Crunching, Red Hat Analysis, Social Network Analysis, Structured Brainstorming, and Team A/Team B (Heuer and Pherson, 2010)
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From page 103... ...
The Strategic Perspective provides a theoretical perspective on state behavior, political leadership, and the connections between domestic politics and international relations. Its tenets regarding the relationship between a state's type of regime and its public policy have had a major effect on scholarly work in recent decades (among many others, see Bernauer and Koubi, 2009; Brown and Mobarak, 2009; Chhibber and Nooruddin, 2004; Chiozza and Goemans, 2004; Gelpi and Grieco, 2001; Goemans, 2000; Kilchevsky et al., 2007; Licht, 2009; McDonald, 2007; McGillivray and Smith, 2008; Peceny and Butler, 2004)
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From page 104... ...
The theory defines international relations as "the product of the cumulative impact of the foreign policies of the nations of the world. Foreign policies are always linked to and partially shaped by internal politics, especially domestic political concerns that influence a leader's prospects of retaining his or her job" (Bueno de Mesquita, 2006, p.
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From page 105... ...
Intelligence analysts and policy makers need explanations and possibilities for prediction that are empirically grounded from the bottom up. The current international system is as much about how internal challenges to state power simultaneously affect domestic politics and relations among states as it is about how nation-states interact.
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From page 106... ...
It will do so by offering a retrospective look at two well-known intelligence failures, the Iranian revolution of 1979 and India's nuclear tests in 1998, and indicating how the use of SP might have led analysts at the time to understand more clearly the forces that led to the eventual outcomes. As described above, the central insight in the Strategic Perspective is that international relations and domestic issues are irretrievably linked, with this linkage arising from the fact that leaders act in such a way to stay in power.
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From page 107... ...
The shah's power base appeared to be the urban and oil elites who benefitted from his economic policies, based on oil exports as well as his foreign policy of close reliance on the United States. The elites he relied on for support and protection did not actually constitute a coalition of the sort that all leaders need to stay in power.
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From page 108... ...
India's Nuclear Tests, 1998 On May 11, 1998, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the new prime minister of India, announced that earlier that day his government had tested three nuclear devices (Associated Press, 1998; India tests nuclear devices, 1998)
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From page 109... ...
Ultimately, the link between domestic politics and international outcomes was not lost on the IC during its post mortem on India's nuclear testing. Testifying before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, DCI Tenet said: "[E]
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. This essay has sought to reemphasize the importance of structured qualitative analysis in the IC by demonstrating how a major theoretical project in political science understands international politics and can be applied to qualitative analysis.
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From page 111... ...
American Political Science Review 103(2)
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From page 112... ...
2010. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis.
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From page 113... ...
2009. A tradecraft primer: Structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis.
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