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Intelligence Analysis Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Part III: Analysts
Pages 115-116

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From page 115...
... As examples, they describe tendencies to attribute individuals' actions to personal characteristics, neglecting situational constraints; exaggerate confidence in the quality of one's assessments and predictions; underestimate the risk of relying on expertise; place unwarranted confidence in gathering additional information; and confuse the role of intuition in judgment. Arkes and 115
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From page 116...
... She notes that efforts to increase collaboration among agencies face the well-documented tendency for the members of any group to accentuate differences with the members of other groups. Such grouping of people into social categories has both benefits and costs that must be recognized for effective organizational design.
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Key Terms

  • individual reasoning
  • unconscious reasoning
  • seek causes
  • structure appropriate
  • gathering additional

  • include external
  • neglecting situational
  • regular feedback
  • erroneous inferences
  • external pressures

  • biases include
  • situational constraints
  • fundamental task
  • factors allows
  • james kajdasz

  • theories explain
  • exaggerate confidence
  • separate identity
  • spellman illustrates
  • allows implementation

  • vast research
  • describe tendencies
  • unwarranted confidence
  • spellman describes
  • hal arkes

  • intergroup biases
  • improve collaboration
  • successful teams
  • recent theories
  • social categories


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