Intelligence Analysis Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (2011) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
10 Communicating About Analysis--Baruch Fischhoff
10 Communicating About Analysis--Baruch Fischhoff
Pages 227-248
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 227... ...
One such threat arises when members of a group interact intensely with one another, but lose touch with how differently the world looks to members of other groups (see Tinsley, this volume, Chapter 9)
|
From page 228... ...
ANALYST–CLIENT COMMUNICATIONS At times, analysts' clients face specific decisions, such as whether to enter an international coalition, deploy military forces, suspend diplomatic relations, or reduce foreign aid. Serving such clients means efficiently communicating the information most critical to their choices.
|
From page 229... ...
The communication window is used best by providing the most valuable analytical results first. At some point, it may pay to close that window, when additional results cannot improve the decision or the cost is too high (in terms of the time spent conveying analyses or the opportunities lost while waiting for analytic results to be produced)
|
From page 230... ...
Influence diagrams (Clemen and Reilly, 2002; Horvitz, 2005; Howard, 1989) provide a general way to represent such understanding, consistent with most of the models described in chapters in this volume by Kaplan (Chapter 2)
|
From page 231... ...
Any RDD scenario can be represented as an instantiation of each element of the model (e.g., one source term for the amount of material dispersed, one official communication, one degree of public compliance)
|
From page 232... ...
The middle section asks the client to elaborate on all those issues. The final section asks about issues that arose in the preliminary decision analysis, but not in the interview.
|
From page 233... ...
They offer little opportunity for analysts to request clarifications or to reveal the need for them. Thus, structured methods can leave an illusion of understanding in situations where analysts and clients are talking past one another.
|
From page 234... ...
. A controversial application involves inferring the value of a human life from the wage premium paid for riskier jobs (Viscusi, 1983)
|
From page 235... ...
virus within 3 years." These judgments were elicited in October 2005 from a group of leading public health experts and a group of similarly accomplished non-medical experts (associated with technologies that
|
From page 236... ...
Studies found that the problem was not with the probabilities, but with the events. Did a "70 percent chance of rain" mean "rain over 70 percent of the period," "rain 10 9 8 7 Medical experts Frequency 6 Nonmedical experts 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 <1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Probability Response FIgURE 10-2 Probability judgments for efficient human-to-human transmission of avian flu.
|
From page 237... ...
The formulation in Figure 10-2 reflected public health experts' belief that 3 years is the normal planning horizon for pandemic preparations. Box 10-1 shows four other design problems, along with solutions suggested by the research literature (Fischhoff, 2009; Slovic, 2001)
|
From page 238... ...
Other heuristics are domain specific, like those used to predict how explosives work, gases disperse, traffic moves, or inflation behaves. Communications may fail unless they make sense to people, given these normal ways of thinking (or mental models)
|
From page 239... ...
, whereby observers exaggerate the power of personality factors, relative to situational pressures, in shaping behavior. One possible antidote is suggesting missing behaviors (e.g., "We've never seen him without his advisors.
|
From page 240... ...
manipulation checks of whether information was interpreted as intended; (3) active mastery of the content, allowing clients to make valid inferences from it; (4)
|
From page 241... ...
In influence diagram terms, a fully computational model is represented by the variables and relationships in a diagram, while a fully specified narrative analysis describes a path through a diagram, instantiating its variables and relationships. Assessing the variables in an analysis requires eliciting experts' beliefs with the precision required of probability judgments (see Figure 10-2)
|
From page 242... ...
, individual links can be plausible, yet add up to an implausible story. For example, someone who perceives deep personal humiliation may be more likely to accept radical ideologies, while someone who accepts radical ideologies may be more likely to be recruited to commit violent acts.
|
From page 243... ...
Sound analyst–analyst communication increases the chances of analysts having something valuable to communicate to clients. MANAgINg FOR COMMUNICATION SUCCESS As with other vital organizational functions, effective communications require proper people and processes (see this volume's Tetlock and Mellers, Chapter 11, and Kozlowski, Chapter 12)
|
From page 244... ...
. Reproduced with the permission of Canadian Standards Association from CAN/CSA-0850-97 (R2009)
|
From page 245... ...
Choosing between internal and external expertise requires balancing the short-term benefits of improving specific analyses against the long-term benefits of enhancing an organization's own human capital. CONCLUSION Effective communication is essential to effective analysis.
|
From page 246... ...
. Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada: Canadian Standards Association.
|
From page 247... ...
2001. Risk communication: The mental models approach.
|
From page 248... ...
1986. Decision analysis and behavioral research.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.