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Intelligence Analysis Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Part II: Analytic Methods
Pages 29-30

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From page 29...
... He notes its ability to help analysts pay attention to events that do not happen; explain discontinuities; understand the constraints of uncertainty, risks, costs and benefits; and coordinate multiple actors. As an example, he shows how game theory clarifies the potentially misleading role of selection effects in interpreting historical patterns.
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From page 30...
... McClelland illustrates the approach with applications to technology, medicine, and science policy, which parallel the challenges faced by intelligence analysts who must understand uncertain situations and convey their conclusions to policy makers. In particular, the paper shows how signal detection theory can be used to clarify the lessons of 9/11 and the "failures" of intelligence about Iraq weapons of mass destruction -- distinguishing decision rules (e.g., systematic bias toward false alarms)
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Key Terms

  • game theory
  • signal detection
  • intelligence analysis
  • decision rules
  • qualitative analysis

  • bruce bueno
  • kaplan describes
  • essential roles
  • selection effects
  • analytic judgments

  • applied mathematics
  • interpreting historical
  • nal detection
  • analysts understand
  • rules guide

  • disciplined methods
  • formal qualitative
  • potentially misleading
  • fundamental assumptions
  • mesquita describes

  • misleading role
  • historical patterns
  • science provides
  • political science
  • describes current

  • understand uncertain
  • uncertain situations
  • skinner describes
  • theory provides
  • iraq weapons


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