National Earthquake Resilience Research, Implementation, and Outreach (2011) / Chapter Skim
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This report presents a roadmap for increasing our national resilience to earthquakes, including the infrequent -- but inevitable -- Katrina-like earthquake events. The United States has not experienced a great1 earthquake since 1964, when Alaska was struck by a magnitude-9.2 event, and the damage in Alaska was relatively light because of the sparse population.
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to develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States that would be based on the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. The NRC committee was directed to assess the activities, and their costs, that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years.
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The tasks generally cross cut the goals and objectives described in the Strategic Plan because they are formulated as coherent activities that span from knowl edge building to implementation. The committee endorses the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan, and identifies 18 specific task elements required to implement that plan and materially improve national earthquake resilience.
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Integrate science, engineering, and social science information in an advanced GISbased loss estimation platform to improve earthquake risk assessments and loss estimations; 5-year annualized cost of $5 million/year, for a total 20-year cost of $100 million.
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National Seismic Hazard Model 50.1 250.5 696 946.5 5. Operational Earthquake Forecasting 5 25 60 85 6.
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Integrate knowledge gained in Tasks 1, 13, 14, and 16 to enable robust, fully coupled simulations of fault rupture, seismic wave propagation through bedrock, and soil-structure response to compute reliable estimates of financial loss, business interruption, and casualties; 5-year annualized cost of $6 million/year, for a total 20-year cost of $120 million.
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Support and guide community-based earthquake resiliency pilot projects to apply NEHRP-generated and other knowledge to improve awareness, reduce risk, and improve emergency preparedness and recovery capacity; 5-year annualized cost of $15.6 million/year, for a total 20-year cost of $1 billion. TIMING OF ROADMAP COMPONENTS The committee recommends that all the tasks identified here be initiated immediately, contingent on the availability of funds, and suggests that such an approach would represent an appropriate balance between practical activities to enhance national earthquake resilience and the research that is needed to provide a sound basis for such activities.
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Successfully diffusing NEHRP knowledge into communities and among the earthquake professionals, state and local government officials, building owners, lifeline operators, and others who have the responsibility for how buildings, systems, and institutions respond to and recover from earthquakes, will require a dedicated and strategic effort. This diffusion role reflects the limited authority that resides with federal agencies in addressing the earthquake threat.
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