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3 Projected Supply of Cellulosic Biomass
Pages 79-104

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From page 79...
... The remaining 20 billion gallons per year of mandated consumption is to be met with cellulosic biofuels or advanced fuels, which could include cellulosic biofuels, other types of biofuels derived from sugar or any starch other than corn starch, and imports of ethanol from sugarcane facilities in Brazil and elsewhere. Based on anticipated advances in conversion technologies, earlier studies suggested that over 550 million dry tons per year of nonfood-based resources, including agricultural residues, dedicated bioenergy crops, forest resources, and municipal solid wastes (MSWs)
From page 80...
... , the Biomass Research and Development Initiative, and researchers at the University of Tennessee. Other factors, such as biotechnology, competition for biomass with other sectors, weather-related losses, and pests and diseases, which are typically not considered in projecting biomass supply, contribute to uncertainties in feedstock supply and are discussed at the end of this chapter.
From page 81...
... database (USDA-NRCS, 2008) and an estimation of maximum rate of soil erosion not affecting productivity (the T value calculated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation; Renard et al., 1997)
From page 82...
... Optimistically, biorefineries are considered to be able to use mixed feedstocks for the most part. Where mixed feedstocks are available, corn-grain ethanol is produced up to the limit imposed by RFS2, and then crop residues, dedicated bioenergy crops, fats, oils and greases, and MSW all contribute to biofuel supply, with the mixtures varying locally.
From page 83...
... The committee cautions that the estimated prices for various cellulosic feedstocks in NBSM are lower than the more recent estimates presented in FIGURE 3-1 Biofuel supply and fuel pathways estimated from teh National Biorefinery Siting Model. NOTE: About 500-600 million dry tons per year of biomass are considered available and re coverable at prices needed to meet RFS2 in 2022.
From page 84...
... As can be expected, agricultural residues are concentrated in the Corn Belt (Figure 3-3A)
From page 85...
... TABLE 3-2 Biomass Feedstocks for Integrated Biorefineries Projected by the National Biorefinery Siting Model in Selected Regions of the United States, at Prices Sufficient to Meet RFS2 Mandates MSW Feedstock Type (in thousands of dry tons per year) Dedicated Bioenergy Orchard and Region Biorefinery Locations Forest Pulpwood Corn Grain Crop Residues Crops Vineyard Wastes North Central Grayling, MI 338 8.1 17.5 and Northeast Warren, MI 541 123 Port Huron, MI 500 Saginaw, MI 500 636 268 Marquette, WI 194 2.3 Rhinelander, WI 502 Bemidji, MN 289 Syracuse, NY 20.8 268 1,000 30.8 595 60.9 Mid-south Fayetteville, AR 29 301 23.4 13 600 23.6 Poplar Bluff, MO 282 527 Paducah, KY 147 865 Jackson, TN 63.1 1,240 Memphis, TN 12,800 881 479 Morristown, TN 1,120 Murfreesboro, TN 4.8 1,050 Southeast Huntsville, AL 4.8 811 Greenville, MS 1,000 836 306 Vicksburg, MS 540 Columbus, MS 28.2 538 58.3 1.3 Waycross, GA 730 275 42.6 Greenwood, SC 4.1 797 Asheville, NC 52.6 630 29.7 17.2 Fayetteville, NC 600 Lumberton, NC 36.2 646 104 Danville, VA 75.8 496 34.7 22.1 1,300 85 continued
From page 86...
... TABLE 3-2 Continued 86 MSW Feedstock Type (in thousands of dry tons per year) Dedicated Bioenergy Orchard and Region Biorefinery Locations Forest Pulpwood Corn Grain Crop Residues Crops Vineyard Wastes Northern Plains Nebraska City, NE 444 344 Norfolk, NE 2,070 11,100 241 Howard, SD 1,000 526 706 Pierre, SD 80.8 790 Sioux Falls, SD 1,210 1,260 95.8 Watertown, SD 1,000 989 371 Jamestown, SD 1,000 132 379 Southern Plains Garden City, KS 684 18.6 910 Guymon, OK 94.8 770 Keys, OK 1,030 Dumas, TX 1,000 139 1,120 Hereford, TX 115 113 931
From page 87...
... The projected distribution of crop residue, switchgrass, and Miscanthus supplies are consistent with another study that projects R01935 national cellulosic biomass supply using a multimarket equilibrium nonlinear mathematical programming model called the Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (Khanna et al., 2011) and a study that projects regional cellulosic biomass supply in Michigan (Egbendewe-Mondzozo et al., 2010)
From page 88...
... for RFS2, EPA describes a transport tool that estimates the location of cellulosic biorefineries to be built to produce 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels by 2022. Biomass data were derived from a number of sources, including NASS for agricultural residues, Elliot Campbell from Stanford University for bioenergy crops, and the U.S.
From page 89...
... The most competitive locations were identified by comparing feedstock and capital costs. These locations resulted in a list of estimated least-cost biorefinery locations needed to meet 16 billion gallons per year mandated cellulosic biofuels.
From page 90...
... Additional cellulosic biofuels were predicted to come from other crop residues in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana (primarily 10 million dry tons of bagasse associated with sugarcane harvest) and from dedicated bioenergy crops (primarily switchgrass)
From page 91...
... with dedicated bioenergy crops, canola, soybean, sweet sorghum, corn stover, and logging residues as the principal feedstock sources. For the most part, USDA estimated little crop substitution in the most productive regions of the Corn Belt.
From page 92...
... , corn Kansas stover, logging Missouri residues Ohio Oklahoma Maryland Minnesota Nebraska North Dakota Pennsylvania South Dakota Wisconsin Virginia Northeast Connecticut Perennial grasses, 0.42 0.01 0.43 Massachusetts soy oil, biomass Maine (sweet sorghum) , Michigan corn stover, logging New Hampshire residues New Jersey New York Rhode Island Vermont West Virginia Northwest Alaska Canola, straw, 0.79 0.18 1.05 Idaho logging residues Montana Oregon Washington
From page 93...
... . Crop residues are predicted to be derived most intensively from the Corn Belt region, based on the favored use of corn stover.
From page 94...
... To estimate land use in an ASD or larger aggregated regions, the crop supply model first determines the land area in each ASD available to (1) enter crop production, (2)
From page 95...
... To be included in the model's optimum solution, the net present value of bioenergy crops would have to be greater than the regional rental rate for pasture or for conventional crops. If some pastures are converted to bioenergy crop production, the remaining pasture would likely be managed more intensively, and more hay would be fed instead of grazing (English et al., 2010)
From page 96...
... . These surveys form a series from 1982 and provide updated information on the status, condition, and trends of land cover and land use, land capability classes, soil and soil erosion, water and irrigation, 4 A pilot demonstration for biofuel refinery is a facility that has the capacity to process 1-10 dry tons of feedstock per day.
From page 97...
... RUSLE RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) Dedicated bioenergy PNNL (Pacific Northwest PNNL POLYSYS (Policy Analysis PNNL crops National Laboratory)
From page 98...
... Development Initiative Laboratory (ORNL) Description/scenarios Minimizes the cost of Minimizes the cost of Uses projected crop Uses projected crop meeting biofuel targets on meeting biofuel targets on yields, land availability, yields, land availability, a national level, subject a national level, subject and targeted biomass land use transformation, to local biomass supplies to local biomass supplies requirements to meet and targeted biomass and infrastructure and local capital costs.
From page 99...
... . Both EPA and BRDB estimated that 10 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent biofuel would be derived from crop residues or dedicated bioenergy crops and 4 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent biofuels would be derived from forest resources.
From page 100...
... In the southeastern United States, forest residues and perennial grasses are most important. In the prairie regions of the United States, crop residues, corn grain, and perennial grasses are predicted to be produced.
From page 101...
... Zhang 2010. Biomass Supply from Alternative Cellulosic Crops and Crop Residues: A Preliminary Spatial Bioeconomic Modeling Ap proach.
From page 102...
... 2002. Resource assessment and removal analysis for corn stover and wheat straw in the eastern and midwestern United States: Rainfall and wind-induced soil erosion methodology.
From page 103...
... 2010. A USDA Regional Roadmap to Meeting the Biofuels Goals of the Renewable Fuels Standard by 2022.


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