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Summary
Pages 1-12

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From page 1...
... Congress enacted the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as part of the 2005 Energy Policy Act and amended it in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)
From page 2...
... KEY FINDINGS FINDING: Absent major technological innovation or policy changes, the RFS2-mandated consumption of 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels is unlikely to be met in 2022. The United States had the capacity to produce 14.1 billion gallons of ethanol per year from corn grain and 2.7 billion gallons of biodiesel per year from soybean oil, other vegetable oils, and animal fats at the end of 2010.
From page 3...
... In this scenario, no cellulosic feedstock market is feasible without policy incentives. A cellulosic feedstock market would be feasible under other circumstances, such as if the price of oil reaches $191 per barrel, if a carbon price makes the price of cellulosic biofuels more competitive, if government subsidy payments are high enough, or if government mandates are enforced at given levels of biofuel blending.
From page 4...
... per dry ton of cellulosic feedstock refined or as the market price for carbon credits if processors are allocated marketable carbon credits for biofuel GHG reductions relative to conventional gasoline. 4 These conclusions are based on average prices for a cellulosic biofuel industry that is assumed to be commer cially competitive and viable.
From page 5...
... If the United States produces 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels by 2022, 30-60 million acres of land might be required for cellulosic biomass feedstock production, thereby creating competition among land uses. Although biofuels produced from crop and forest residues and from municipal solid wastes could reduce the amount of land needed for cellulosic feedstock production, those sources are inadequate to supply 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels, particularly if a proportion of crop and forest residues are left in the field to maintain soil quality.
From page 6...
... Although there are currently large supplies of milling residues in the wood processing industry, most of these residues are already committed to electricity production (in recent years, up to 132 million dry tons of roundwood equivalent5) , and thus would be costly for cellulosic biofuel producers to purchase.
From page 7...
... Even if part of the RFS2 consumption mandate is to be met by imported ethanol, a net reduction in the volume of imported oil is expected. Federal Budget FINDING: Achieving RFS2 would increase the federal budget outlays mostly as a result of increased spending on payments, grants, loans, and loan guarantees to support the development of cellulosic biofuels and forgone revenue as a result of biofuel tax credits.
From page 8...
... Subsidies to reduce the capital investment cost of constructing cellulosic biofuel refineries are typically provided in the form of tax credits, grants, loans, or loan guarantees that provide a rate of interest below what investors could obtain from alternative financing sources. Forgone Federal Revenue Transportation fuels are taxed in the United States, but the structure of excise tax rates and exemptions varies by transportation mode and fuel type.
From page 9...
... . Planning based on landscape analysis could help integrate biofuel feedstock production into agricultural landscapes in ways that improve environmental outcomes and benefit wildlife by encouraging placement of cellulosic feedstock production in areas that can enhance soil quality or help reduce agricultural nutrient runoffs, anticipating and reducing the potential of groundwater overuse and enhancing wildlife habitats.
From page 10...
... Precise regional assessments at each site of feedstock production for biofuels are needed to assess the collective effects of achieving RFS2 on biodiversity. BARRIERS TO ACHIEVING RFS2 FINDING: Key barriers to achieving RFS2 are the high cost of producing cellulosic biofuels compared to petroleum-based fuels and uncertainties in future biofuel markets.
From page 11...
... EPA has the right to waive or defer enforcement of RFS2 under a variety of circumstances, and the agency is "required to set the cellulosic biofuel standard each year based on the volume projected to be available during the following year." In 2011, the RFS level of 250 million gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuel was reduced to 6.6 million gallons. As of 2011, biofuel production is contingent on subsidies, RFS2, and similar policies.


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