Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean (2011) / Chapter Skim
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4 Opportunities to Enhance Research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
4 Opportunities to Enhance Research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Pages 109-144
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From page 109... ...
This chapter also describes a proposed initiative for an observing network with data integration and enhanced scientific modeling. 4.1 COLLABORATION In the first half of the 20th century, many of the nations that were interested in Antarctica were primarily concerned with claiming territory.
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From page 110... ...
Subsequent additions to the Antarctic Treaty System of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resource, which manages fishing in the Southern Ocean, and the Environmental Protocol provide explicit regulations to maintain the comparatively pristine conditions of the continent. TABLE Signatories of the Antarctic Treaty System, Country and Date Joined (as of 2011)
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From page 111... ...
. Many nations that are active in Antarctic research have published future research priorities 111
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From page 112... ...
FIGURE 4.1 Map of Antarctic research stations from various countries. SOURCE: Australian Antarctic Data Figure 4-1.eps Centre.
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From page 113... ...
. SOURCES: AWI, 2009; Australian Antarctic Division, 2011; British Antarctic Survey Science Programme, 2009; European Polar Board, 2010; Gupta, 2010; Lee, 2010; Ministry of Earth Sciences India, 2011; National Science Foundation, 2009; National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs, 2011; New Zealand Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Program, 2010; Polar Research Institute of China, 2006; Research Council of Norway, 2010.
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From page 114... ...
Internationally, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) has been supplemented by regional organi zations such as the EPB and the Asian Forum for Polar Sciences.
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From page 115... ...
project involving Germany, Italy, New • Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which studies the evolu tion of the Antarctic ice sheets during the past 40 million years; • Concordia astronomical observatory involving France, Italy, and others, which aims to open new spectral windows at infrared and submillimeter wavelengths; • Gamburtsev solid Earth investigations involving the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Japan, Australia, and China, which studies this very large subglacial mountain range; CAML3 (Census of Antarctic Marine Life) led by Australia, involving 17 ships • and scientists from 20 nations, which investigates the distribution and abun dance of Antarctica's marine life; AMPS4 (Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System)
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From page 116... ...
Most nations engaged in Antarctic research need to collaborate to tackle large scientific questions.
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From page 117... ...
Similarly, IceCube is highly dependent on cyberinfrastructure, as are most other areas of scientific inquiry, and research and development in cyberinfrastructure are important areas of cross-disciplinary inquiry. Given the extensive logistical support typically required to do research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, the successful execution of interdisciplinary scientific work in this region often requires successful international collaboration.
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From page 118... ...
science in the Antarctic region, and to address the concerns this committee heard on the increasing difficulty and logistics-related stresses in conducting research in this region. The Blue Ribbon Panel can affect the future of science in significant ways by reconfiguring U.S.
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From page 119... ...
For example, during the 1960s a small nuclear plant was built at McMurdo Station in an attempt to provide more reliable electric power generation. (Note that the Antarctic Treaty does not prohibit peaceful uses of nuclear science or nuclear power.)
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From page 120... ...
Approximately 15 percent of McMurdo's and nearly 90 percent of Scott Base's electricity needs are now provided by this system. Analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory suggests that expansion of wind electric power generation at McMurdo and extension of this capability to Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station could save as much as half a million gallons of fuel per year and produce net savings of $20 million over 20 years (Baring-Gould et al., 2005)
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From page 121... ...
novations such as wind and solar power will likely play a role in many of the current energy-intensive activities, and battery technology, fuel cells, and other mechanisms for energy generation and storage should be explored in the challenging conditions of the Antarctic region. Overall the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region has the opportunity to continue to be an important testbed for new energy concepts for other extreme climates, such as the Arctic.
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From page 122... ...
Mobile drilling capacity, such as the FASTDRILL project, will allow for rapid drilling of multiple holes that significantly improves information output. Examples of platforms like these that provide access for measurements in more locations, with greater frequency, and at more times of the year will help provide needed data to address the types of science questions listed in Chapters 2 and 3.
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From page 123... ...
FASTDRILL (left) allows for the rapid drilling of multiple holes.
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From page 124... ...
Anticipated scientific research needs in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean will require the services of heavy icebreakers, not only to break ice and clear out harbors, but also to support research missions for less-capable polar research vessel ice 124
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The two U.S. Coast Guard heavy icebreakers, Polar Sea and Polar Star, are more than 30 years old and have exceeded their service lives.
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From page 126... ...
Physical Infrastructure Science activity in the Antarctic region is dependent on facilities and on transport, and as noted above in the energy section, successful science depends on adequate provision of energy. Ships bring heavy cargo and fuel to support operations at Palmer Station and McMurdo Station.
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From page 127... ...
The committee encourages the Blue Ribbon Panel to examine these issues as part of its review of the logistical support of science in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. The impacts of global human activity, such as increasing releases of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the resulting global climate change, far outweigh the impact researchers will have on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
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From page 128... ...
professionals and the general education of a scientifically literate citizenry. People of all ages are interested in the polar regions, and interest in polar science could have a similar mobilizing effect on students in the early 21st century that space exploration had in the latter half of the 20th century.
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From page 129... ...
Any efforts undertaken by NSF or other agencies working in the Antarctic region would need to be informed by and supportive of national education standards to be effective for K-12 science education. The Next Generation Science Standards project is establishing new science education standards under the leadership of the National Academies and in collaboration with state departments of education.
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From page 130... ...
It is important to develop enough strong scientists to take up the work in the Antarctic region, especially as international collaborations grow and advanced scientific techniques (particularly computation and simulations) enable new kinds of science, while broadening participation in science at all levels.
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, and the polar science community should take advantage of the opportunity to develop innovative professional educational efforts that build on the interdisciplinary and unique aspects of Antarctic research. Vision for the Future A characteristic of education for polar science is the ad hoc and somewhat haphazard pattern shown of the efforts that have been mentioned in this section.
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From page 132... ...
The committee has identified two new initiatives that are critical to this effort to achieve rapid and meaningful advances in science in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the coming 10-20 years: expansion of an observing network with data integration and improvements in scientific modeling capabilities. Observing Network with Data Integration From predicting sea level rise to understanding ecosystem response to environmental change, the preceding chapters of this report highlight the most important scientific questions that will be driving Antarctic research over the next two decades.
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From page 133... ...
Therefore, the committee identifies an overarching need for NSF to help lead a coordinated international Antarctic observing system network encompassing the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice, and ecosystems, as well as their interfaces. This initiative should provide the framework for intensive data collection, management, dissemination, and synthesis across projects and across disciplines; lay the foundation for many future Antarctic and Southern Ocean observations; use models to evaluate and plan the optimal locations for observations; and maximize the scientific output from deploying resource-intensive observing platforms in such an extreme environment.
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From page 134... ...
. Its present design addresses many of the major scientific questions identified in this report, including the role of the Southern Ocean in the planet's heat and freshwater balance, the nature and stability of the Southern Ocean circulation, the interaction of the Southern Ocean with the glacial ice sheets of Antarctica and its effect on their contribution to sea level rise, the stability of the Southern Ocean sea-ice cover, the impact of Southern Ocean carbon uptake regionally and globally, and the future of Southern Ocean ecosystems.
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Opportunities to Enhance Research FIGURE 4.5 Time series of mean carbonic acid system measurements within selected depth layers at Sta Time series tion ALOHA, 1988-2007. (First image)
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The LTER Network provides a model for just a part of the proposed Antarctic observing system (the ecological component, anchored by the Palmer and McMurdo sites)
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From page 137... ...
, which recommended that IPY "should be used as an opportunity to design and implement multidisciplinary polar observing networks that will provide a long-term perspective." Later, in a follow-up report from the Polar Research Board, Toward an Integrated Arctic Observing Network (National Research Council, 2006) , a committee recommended that development of an Arctic Observing Network aided by Observing System Simulation Experiments should get under way immediately to take advantage of IPY.
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From page 138... ...
Overall improvements by all institutes in the collection, management, archiving, and exchange of data and information will allow data that has been collected once to be used for multiple purposes by a variety of stakeholders reaching well beyond the scientific community. An observational network will require the efforts of more than one nation, and, as encouraged by the Antarctic Treaty, SCAR, and recently published science plans, it is important that data and information be shared at an international level.
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Effective coordination among agencies will be a key requirement for success of a future Antarctic research support structure. Observing System Overview and Components An observation system has three major components: 1.
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Scientific Modeling Any observing system will be incomplete without the simultaneous development of new models that can assimilate the observational data and provide sophisticated tools for data analysis and synthesis. For example, sea level projections due to ice changes come mainly from ice sheet models that lack the appropriate initial and boundary conditions with inadequate understanding of the underlying ice physics.
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From page 141... ...
Among other components that are being or still need to be included are the dynamic behavior of ice sheets, the global carbon and nitrogen cycles, ocean and land biogeochemistry and ecology, the role of interactive aerosols, and the changing vegetation patterns. These global models have limited realism over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and significant effort is needed to develop accurate predictive capabilities.
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From page 142... ...
and their contribution to sea level rise, as well as the role of ice shelf retreat on the inland ice sheet. For ecosystem models, a new generation of models is needed -- one that can predict the effects of changes in species composition and ecosystem structure on ecosystem services (Reid, 2005)
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From page 143... ...
These efforts are important for national and international collaboration, because the observation network and modeling effort described here are inherently interdisciplinary and will cross agency and institutional boundaries. This is very much in line with the goals of NSF as society enters the "New Era of Observation" as described by the NSF Director.26 The committee endorses the development of an observing network and an improved intercoupled system modeling effort as the best hope in answering the pressing scientific questions facing the globe.
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From page 144... ...
A spring sunset near Palmer Station. SOURCE: Mindy Piuk/NSF.
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