Global Change and Extreme Hydrology Testing Conventional Wisdom (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Speaker Abstracts
Appendix C: Speaker Abstracts
Pages 24-30
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From page 24... ...
A particular focus is on how precipitation changes as the climate changes and changes in extremes, including risk of flooding and drought. Net changes in surface evaporation are fairly modest, and a much larger percentage change occurs in the waterholding capacity as atmospheric temperatures increase (7% per C)
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From page 25... ...
A Process-Based "Bottom-Up" Approach for Addressing Changing Flood-Climate Relationships Katie Hirschboeck, University of Arizona In response to the unprecedented persistence of extreme drought conditions in the western United States, some western water managers have moved beyond conventional approaches to plan for future extreme low flow conditions in innovative ways involving paleo-records, scenarios, and climate projection modeling. In contrast, flood hazard managers are far more constrained in developing ways to incorporate climate change information operationally, in part because of existing flood policy, but also because of the short-term, localized, and weather-based nature of the flooding process itself.
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From page 26... ...
Nonstationarity can result from a myriad of human influences ranging from agricultural and urban land use modifications, to climate change and water infrastructure. Most previous work in trend detection associated with extreme events has focused on the influence of climate change, alone.
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From page 27... ...
Flood risk management has replaced flood damage reduction in the lexicon of federal engineers, and considerable effort is now focused on both how they might best manage flood risk and how they might communicate the level of future risk to the public. Given the uncertainties surrounding the calculation of recurrence intervals, how do managers and engineers decide how high their levees should be and how structural measures fit with non-structural actions such as zoning, floodproofing, evacuation, etc.?
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From page 28... ...
to a number of factors including slowly varying sea surface temperatures (SSTs) , the influences of the land surface (e.g., atmosphere/soil moisture feedbacks, aerosols, and vegetation changes)
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From page 29... ...
Analysis of Holocene and late Pleistocene paleowater table records suggests that water table fluctuations can be as great as 50 m during drought conditions. With recent advances in the computational power of massively parallel supercomputers, it may soon become possible to incorporate physically based representations of aquifer hydrodynamics into GCM land surface parameterization schemes.
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From page 30... ...
30 Appendix C other grassroots decision-makers -- exactly what is needed to boost drought risk management through the rest of this century.
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