The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring A Retrospective Assessment (2012) / Chapter Skim
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4 Impact of the Modernization and Associated Restructuring
4 Impact of the Modernization and Associated Restructuring
Pages 45-72
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From page 45... ...
and well as the relationship of the NWS with both the applications. Infrastructure put in place during the private sector and the emergency management com MAR is now as much as two decades old, and could munities.
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From page 46... ...
private sector, the National Weather Service Employee Organization, media, emergency managers) have been substantially improved in most cases (Friday, 2011; Organization and Staff Hirn, 2011; Myers, 2011)
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From page 47... ...
This improvement is particularly evident in they can execute efficiently and be held accountable the forecasting and detection of severe weather such as for meeting budget, schedule, and performance goals. tornadoes and flash floods, and will be discussed at the Lack of such a systems architecture introduces consid- end of this section.
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From page 48... ...
The 315 ASOS sites managed by the National Weather Service are indicated by red diamonds. Blue triangles, blue circles, and green triangles indicate the 571 Federal Aviation Administration, 75 Navy, and 48 Air Force ASOS sites, respectively.
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From page 49... ...
A mountaintop site provides a The 1-degree beamwidth and Doppler capabil- long-range view, but cannot see down into many of ity of the NEXRAD radars provided forecasters with the valleys where most people would live (a problem enhanced ability to identify weather features of concern. exacerbated by the NEXRAD restriction to a minimum The NEXRAD network is largely responsible for the elevation angle of 0.5 degree)
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WSR-88D radar locations are indicated by + (National Weather Service radars) and × (Department of Defense radars)
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Due to the Earth-pointing capability of 6.47-7.02 8.0 3 8.0 2.3 3 8.0 0.27 K @ 230 K the GOES-Next satellite, the five-channel imager could 10.2-11.2 4.0 3 4.0 2.3 3 4.0 0.40 K @ 230 K produce imagery every 5 to 10 minutes for local-scale 0.12 K @ 300 K severe weather events and every 15 minutes for CONUS 11.5-12.5 4.0 3 4.0 2.3 3 4.0 0.40 K @ 230 K coverage, and scan the full disk northern hemisphere 0.20 K @ 300 K in less than 30 minutes (with images provided every 3 Instantaneous Geometric Field of View: The detector IGFOV (or foot a print) is the size of a pixel on Earth's surface that a single detector, in the hours)
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From page 52... ...
The system provides a communications network that interconnects each National Centers Advanced Computer Systems WFO and includes the capability for distribution of The strategic and operational planning for the centrally collected data and centrally produced analyMAR emphasized the need for dramatic upgrades sis and guidance products, as well as satellite data and in the computing capabilities of the NWS. The cited imagery.
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From page 53... ...
The following review is limited are now able to sit down at one workstation and view a to tornado and flash flood warnings; numerical weather large, complex set of weather data in as many as twelve prediction and its application to general weather forewindows. The total spectrum of weather information casts; and hurricane and extratropical storm forecasts, can be overlaid and integrated on a single map to get a as these are the types of weather of most interest to the unified picture of what's happening and aid in forecast- public (winter weather forecast performance data from ing.
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From page 54... ...
The POD and warning lead times for both tornadoes and flash floods increased steadily over the course of the MAR, while the FAR for tornadoes and flash floods remained relatively constant. SOURCE: Based on data provided by the National Weather Service.
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It is a major step to go from a numerical model Figure 4.6 illustrates the performance of the various prediction to information that can be used as guidance models showing annual average forecast track errors to forecasters producing general weather forecasts out for the period 1994 to 2009. The solid black line is the to about 10 days.
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From page 56... ...
The improvement in both local forecasts and guidance is indicated by the decline in the mean absolute error. SOURCE: Meteorological Development Laboratory, National Weather Service.
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From page 57... ...
compared the quality of T he Next Generation Weather Radar network and NWS storm forecasts over time from 1978 to 2007 on Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites the basis of displacement errors in the forecast positions dramatically improved the quantity and quality of data of the centers of extratropical cyclones, compiling results available to forecasters and enhanced the numerifrom previous literature. The results are shown in Figure cal weather prediction capabilities of the National 4.8, and show that there was a steady improvement over Weather Service (NWS)
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Data for 96-hr and 120-hr forecasts are only available after 2001, so the trend in the forecast error is more difficult to discern. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service.
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Data for all forecast times show a lack of improvement in hurricane intensity forecast errors. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service.
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(b) Locations of the 122 Weather Forecast Offices (red diamonds)
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While managers at individual WFOs generally education and maintain strong relationships with local plan ahead to add sufficient staff to cover forecasted emergency managers have facilitated rapid sharing of dangerous weather situations, more innocuous weather crucial information during the severe weather threats. scenarios that suddenly and unexpectedly "blow up" The MAR elevated the emergency management comoften lead to shortcomings that are directly attributable munity from merely a user of weather services to a to having insufficient manpower.
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There has been a Finding 4-4 great broadening of the user base and breadth of prod Numerical weather forecasts produced by the National ucts being generated by the National Centers now, as Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and opposed to the pre-MAR period.
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From page 63... ...
SOURCE: National Centers for Environmental Prediction. performance of some NCEP models, particularly from ASOS, NEXRAD, and GOES-Next to the prithe Global Forecast System, continues to lag behind vate sector and public has been critical in expanding some other national centers, including the European the weather enterprise, and likely contributed to the Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.
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From page 64... ...
. information source and the NWS understands the Other federal agencies that use and rely on weather data value of the private sector as both a channel for effecto help meet their operational responsibilities include tively distributing weather information and a source for the Federal Emergency Management Administration innovative added value.
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From page 65... ...
for NWS as a whole, the committee sent a questionnaire It is generally recognized that neither the private sector to the relevant NWS offices (including both WFOs nor the NWS can do all things for all people, so extract- and National Centers such as the National Hurricane ing the best of both groups is critical for the success of Center)
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Success of the MAR radar observations. depended in part on leadership, initiative, and funding by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Emergency Management and National Weather Service units operating outside of the MAR.
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From page 67... ...
provide RFCs with a services coordination position However, there are some other key areas that were similar to the WFO WCMs. significantly affected by the MAR, including hydro- The restructuring assigned responsibility for issulogic services, coastal observations and forecasts, and ance of flood and flash flood watches and warnings to the climate record.
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From page 68... ...
Improvements three RFCs according to onsite interviews) focuses on began even pre-MAR, as some RFCs and the Office quality control of hydrometeorological records where of Hydrology participated in early demonstrations of meteorological training is effective, negative consethe complementary aspects of operational hydrology quences of this staffing challenge include limitations and meteorology planned under the MAR (e.g., QPFs, in the capability of RFCs to calibrate their hydrologic flash flood guidance, through the Prototype RFC models.
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From page 69... ...
Even given ments, not considerations of the climate record. Consome of the documented shortcomings previously dis tinuity plans for concurrent observations at limited cussed (e.g., reliability issues associated with ASOS; sites were developed by the NWS Office of Science siting of NEXRAD radars at high altitudes)
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From page 70... ...
In addition, the well as changes in the observing location that occurred NWS Climate Services training program has been used at most airport locations. There was also a significant to inform NWS staff of proper data stewardship prac tices.
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From page 71... ...
computation of long-period statistics, created by changes in instrumentation and observing locations, Testbeds have accelerated the transfer of technolare still a concern. However, the Modernization and ogy from research-to-operations; successful examples Associated Restructuring continues to offer pros- include the Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Hazardous pects for improvement of the overall national climate Weather Testbed (jointly operated by NWS and the record over the long term.
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