A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Strategic Plan (2012) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
4 Comments on Specific Topics within Program Goals 1 - 4
4 Comments on Specific Topics within Program Goals 1 - 4
Pages 12-40
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From page 12... ...
Sustaining Satellite Observations. The Plan acknowledges that satellite remote sensing observations are a core foundation of global change research that must be sustained in the coming decades, but the Committee is concerned about the lack of clear strategies for doing so.
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From page 13... ...
Social and Ecological Science Observations. The Committee applauds the USGCRP's intent to broaden its scope beyond the physical sciences; but we do not see sufficient evidence that the Program is prepared to take concrete steps in meeting its stated goals to better integrate social and ecological sciences.
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From page 14... ...
Designing and implementing data collection efforts provides the ideal testbed for working out the complex relationships and shared understandings necessary to a truly integrated earth systems science that draws upon the physical, social and ecological sciences. The cost of most social and ecological science data collection is modest compared to the cost of many of the physical science observing systems being supported.
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From page 15... ...
, but the Committee suggests there should be a greater emphasis on developing new capabilities to accommodate real-time data streams as part of USGCRP's portfolio of data management tools. This could be done in part by leveraging ongoing research on new data-collection opportunities taking place other disciplines outside of global change research.
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From page 16... ...
For instance, many social processes are driven by rule-based systems developed within a particular societal context, as opposed to physical processes that are driven by conservation laws. Scenario-based modeling approaches will continue to be an important direction for global change research.
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From page 17... ...
That said however, it may still be possible to at least set a lower bound on the value of global change research knowledge by asking: If a certain research advance could in fact provide the answer to some given question, what difference would it make? For example, accurate estimates of sea level rise or storm surge height can inform decisions by local governments, businesses, and property owners about where to locate or to move human settlements and infrastructure in the coastal zone.
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From page 18... ...
Box 2 offers an illustration (taken from an earlier NRC report) of how scientific analysis that integrates physical, ecological, and social sciences is necessary to understand and inform decision making about environmental hazards that can be affected by global changes such as climate variability, climate change and sea level rise.
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From page 19... ...
Without clear targets, and identified parties held accountable for meeting these targets, the Plan is likely to repeat its earlier unsuccessful efforts to integrate the social sciences. The Committee's skepticism results from of a history of failures to make good use of social science knowledge in global change research, both by the USGCRP and its member agencies.
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From page 20... ...
The Plan discusses social science research mainly in relation to impact, vulnerability and adaptation. But there are many other aspects of global change research where social sciences can advance understanding of important issues; e.g, consumption patterns for food, water, energy and other basic resources; drivers and economics of climate change (e.g.
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From page 21... ...
Improving the understanding of socioeconomic change as context for climate change impacts and responses. Valuation of climate consequences and policy responses." The report further suggested five priorities for action-oriented human dimensions research, which could engage the full range of social science disciplines: "Understanding climate change vulnerabilities: Human development scenarios for potentially affected regions, populations, and sectors.
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From page 22... ...
(iii) Provide a clear plan for phasing in efforts toward accomplishing stated goals for increasing the role of social sciences and for integrating across physical, social and ecological sciences, including specific commitments for the next few years.
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From page 23... ...
Unless the Plan acknowledges the current lack of "ownership" of social sciences by the agencies and takes concrete steps to assign responsibility and resources to specific agencies in specific priority areas, we cannot be optimistic that the USGCRP will succeed in providing the kind of science the nation needs to support decision making in the face of global change. ECOLOGICAL SCIENCES RESEARCH As understanding of the roles of key ecosystems (e.g., rain forests, Arctic tundra)
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From page 24... ...
Assessments usually provide scenarios for estimating climate change impacts on ecosystem-level processes; but it is important to also incorporate ecological dynamics at the individual, population, and community levels in analyzing those scenarios. This has been a difficult challenge in the past, and integrating organismal science into the modeling of ecosystems has not been supported as part of global change research.
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From page 25... ...
and Goal 2 (Objectives 2.1 – Informing Adaptation Decisions; and Objective 2.2 – Informing Mitigation Decisions)
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From page 26... ...
. The design of the built environment is both a driver of global change (through impacts on resource consumption, land use and habitat destruction, greenhouse gas emissions, air and water pollution, storm water runoff from impervious surfaces, etc.)
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From page 27... ...
• Develop integrated approaches for evaluating energy services in a systems context that accounts for a broad range of societal and environmental concerns, including climate change. • Develop and improve technologies, management strategies, and institutions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, while maintaining or enhancing food production potential.
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From page 28... ...
. The Plan needs to more clearly recognize that information about other countries' climate change response policies and actions, and their participation in international institutions and agreements, is a necessary input to any projections of future global changes.
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From page 29... ...
suggest that lower greenhouse gas concentrations are consistently associated with lower drought frequency across the country. Their results demonstrate the potential value added of tracing geographically distributed measures of a physical impact of climate change (and select downstream measures of socio-economic risk for key vulnerabilities for which adaptation options might be explored)
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From page 30... ...
For mitigation, it is necessary to monitor and respond to a wide array of factors such as socioeconomic developments, international participation in mitigation efforts, energy sector developments, consumption patterns, and the efficacy of mitigation policies. For adaptation, it is necessary to better understand the forces that determine how responses can adjust to changing conditions (i.e., why in some cases adjustment can be quick and are nearly costless, while in other cases adaptation is slow and costly)
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From page 31... ...
In order to play this role effectively, we suggest a number of key areas that deserve attention: The Plan needs to demonstrate a clear, consistent understanding of what is needed for effective decision support and make clear how it will develop the scientific underpinnings required to provide the kinds of information that decision makers need. For example, the discussion of informing mitigation decisions mentions that decision makers need to "understand the effects of policy options on greenhouse gas emissions, the costs of reducing emissions, and the benefits of avoiding greenhouse gas emissions" (L.2119 2121)
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From page 32... ...
"The research for decision support should have five substantive foci: understanding climate change vulnerabilities: human development scenarios for potentially affected regions, populations, and sectors; understanding the potential for mitigation, including anthropogenic driving forces, capacities for change, possible limits of change, and consequences of mitigation options; understanding adaptation contexts and capacities, including possible limits of change and consequences of various adaptive responses; understanding how mitigation and adaptation interact with each other and with climatic and ecological changes in determining human system risks, vulnerabilities, and response challenges associated with climate change; and 32
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From page 33... ...
The USGCRP should provide mechanisms to link research to the appropriate boundary organizations. Box 6 suggests some criteria that the USGCRP could use in working with boundary organizations, to identify the contexts in which decision support efforts will be most feasible and effective.
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From page 34... ...
Expansion of the Program to help support decisions by conducting research, linking research to action, and providing decision support services to certain constituencies is highly appropriate. Such an expansion, however, does raise feasibility concerns, in terms of competition for scarce resources and the capacity of USGCRP agencies.
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From page 35... ...
We recognize that expanding the bounds of the National Climate Assessment may not be feasible within current budgetary constraints or given the current scientific scope of the program, which does not encompass all of global change. But we encourage the USGCRP to explore the possibility of expanding the scope of its assessment efforts over time, and in the interim, to use the assessment process to expand understanding of how climate change affects and interacts with other aspects of global environmental change.
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From page 36... ...
. We suggest the same general guideline for education and communication as we suggested earlier for decision support efforts – they should be the responsibilities of boundary organizations that are best positioned for the role, which in many cases may be organizations that are not part of the USGCRP.
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From page 37... ...
Educating the next generation of global change researchers is materially different from educating the general public or engaging stakeholders, but this distinction is not made clear in the Plan. Finally, this section also makes promises that are neither supported elsewhere in the Plan nor adequately justified.
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From page 38... ...
KEY MESSAGES REGARDING THE BROADENING OF THE PROGRAM The Plan makes strong cases for increasing the integration of social and ecological sciences and for expanding research to support mitigation and adaptation decisions and the enhancement of climate services. The Committee agrees that broadening in these ways would help the Program better fulfill its mission under the GCRA.
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From page 39... ...
Key Messages: The proposed broadening of the Program – to better integrate the social and ecological sciences, to inform decisions about mitigation and adaptation, and to emphasize decision support more generally – is welcome and in fact essential for meeting the legislative mandate for a program aimed at understanding and responding to global change. Although this broader scope is needed, implementing it presents a grand challenge that should be met with more than just incremental solutions.
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From page 40... ...
. Rather, we suggest that the Program identify some specific initial steps it will take in the proposed broadening of scope, including steps to develop critical science capacity that is currently lacking and to improve linkages between the production of knowledge and its use.
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