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IDR Team Summary 3: Develop social and technical capabilities to respond to abrupt changes in ecosystem services.
Pages 23-30

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From page 23...
... More recently, attention has focused on the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems under stress, illuminating the interactions among the two subsystems and the synergies and tradeoffs in their respective responses. This work, perhaps more often than not, suggests abrupt changes in ecosystem services involve the emergent properties of complex social-ecological systems, such as the Dust Bowl on Great Plains of the U.S.
From page 24...
... • What characteristics of changes in ecosystem services and societal coping mechanisms make human populations more robust and resilient, and less vulnerable to abrupt change? Reading Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke Jr.
From page 25...
... Organizing and Classifying Abrupt Changes To begin, the team found it useful to organize the range of environmental changes that trigger abrupt changes in ecosystem services. While these involve multiple variables, the two the team thinks most essential are spatial scale and rate of onset.
From page 26...
... Deforestation Thermo Overfishing haline reorgan ization Slow Global Local Spatial scale FIGURE 1: Potential abrupt changes in the environment are organized according to their expected rate of onset, spatial scale, and number of affected ecosystem services.
From page 27...
... According to climate scientists, a potential tipping point in the world's climate may soon be reached if enough fresh meltwater enters the North Atlantic to shut down the thermohaline circulation, the density-dependent ocean conveyor that provides heat to northern latitudes. Willingness to Prepare: A Matter of Perception The team considered the kinds of changes for which society has demonstrated a willingness to prepare.
From page 28...
... Robustness and resilience are often conflated; robustness refers to a system's ability to withstand change, while resilience refers to the time it takes for the system to return to its previous state. The team considered High and High Low Low widespread mi ga on percep on of mi ga on percep on of ac vi es vulnerability POTENTIAL vulnerability ac vi es ABRUPT CHANGE Proac ve adap ve Reac ve adap ve response response Prepare for several Prepare for the op ons for most immediate mul ple ES vulnerability and loss of a related ES FIGURE 2: How perception of vulnerability to a potential abrupt change might affect mitigation activities and adaptive responses.
From page 29...
... Information should be gathered on the abrupt changes themselves, including specific ecological functions and services that underwent change, as well as the social dimensions of the societal responses. Of interest would be the role played by social networks, information systems and governmental institutions, as well as the livelihood practices of people affected -- whether, for example, farmers used multicropping or other means of biological insurance to reduce risk.


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