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5 Paths Forward to Understanding and Managing Induced Seismicity in Energy Technology Development
Pages 139-150

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From page 139...
... In concept it is possible to calculate probabilities of the occurrence of microseisms and earthquakes and, given one of these events, to predict the possible ground motions. However, making such calculations requires assembling statistical data that are not readily available, such as the total number of wells of different depths, the geologic environments (including faults and plate motions)
From page 140...
... Note that risk involves loss caused by structural damage, including effects on humans. If no structures or other constructed facilities are present, for example because the causative earthquakes occur in an uninhabited area, there is no risk.
From page 141...
... effect Yes risk analysis Nuisance to people, light property damage Moderate to Structures No No strong affected? effect shaking Yes Human casualties, property damage FIGURE 5.1  Evaluations needed for hazard analysis and risk analysis associated with induced seismicity ­ for one well.
From page 142...
... . Ground motions from induced seismicity generated at shallow depths can be more troublesome compared to the ground motions from deeper events (Figures 5.2 and 5.3)
From page 143...
... FIGURE 5.3  Cross section of the Earth illustrating maximum distance that minor (or greater) shaking will occur, for both natural and induced earthquakes originating at 2 km (1.2 miles)
From page 144...
... The risk associated with induced seismicity has to be evaluated in terms of the sources of human activities. A geothermal operation, for example, may have multiple injection wells, each of which may generate seismic events that can affect different communities.
From page 145...
... The horizontal axis shows several kinds of measurements or effects of ground shaking: the upper scale indicates the amount of shaking (slight through moderate+) ; the second scale indicates ground acceleration, which increases from left to right; the next scale indicates MMI or the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, which indicates the level of ground shaking at a particular location and has units designated by Roman numerals, also increasing from left to right in the level of ground shaking (see also Chapter 1)
From page 146...
... As the industry expands to 100, 1,000, or more wells, there can be a significant likelihood that induced seismicity will cause damage to structures somewhere, as a result of the large number of earthquakes and ground motions that are induced, even though the probability of any one well producing such ground motions is small. Tectonic earthquakes cause some level of earthquake risk for buildings, primarily in ­areas like California with relatively frequent events.
From page 147...
... Other steps can modify and use analytical models that have been developed for hazard and risk analysis of tectonic earthquakes. Table 5.2 summarizes the steps that can be taken to quantify the hazard and risk of induced seismicity for a single project (a single wastewater disposal well, oil or gas extraction well, etc.)
From page 148...
... These four aspects include the probability of generating an earthquake of M > 2.0, the probability of shaking being felt at the surface, the probability of different strengths of shaking from an earthquake, and the probability that the earthquake shaking will affect structures and people.
From page 149...
... An unstated assumption in Table 5.2 is that data are to be collected for new energy projects in areas that are known to have a history of induced seismicity, as well as existing projects. The reason is that, going forward, we presumably are interested in estimating hazard and risk from induced seismicity caused by further expansion of energy production, not by existing energy production.
From page 150...
... Directed research could support development of these steps for the quantification of hazard and risk, with the overall goal of integrating these steps to improve our capability to predict induced events and their consequences. Chapter 6 develops these ideas further by discussing best practices and protocols to avoid or mitigate the impacts of induced seismicity during energy development projects.


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