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Appendix E: Cryosphere Extrapolations
Pages 191-196

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From page 191...
... i Y = X + , Multi-Data Averaging where Y is the vector of response variable (ice mass loss rate per year) , X is the matrix of the dependent variables Several independent data sets are available for (in this case, the intercept represented as a column of 1 loss rates from glaciers and ice caps as well as for the and year)
From page 192...
... The committee calcu lated the effects of both acceleration and deceleration 1 1 1 m = + ++ in ice discharge relative to observed present-day rates, ei 1 ei 2 eiK as described below. The term "rapid dynamic response" and is defined here as mass changes in a glacier or ice sheet that occur at rates faster than accompanying climatic 1 ^ j = m -1 w mass balance and which force glacier or ice sheet condi eij tions further away from equilibrium with climate.
From page 193...
... · Glaciers and ice caps: Use 30 percent and 70 percent of 324.8 GT yr-1 · Greenland Ice Sheet: Use 80 percent and 120 percent of 375.1 GT yr-1 · Antarctic Ice Sheet: Use 80 percent and 120 percent of 264 GT yr-1 TABLE E.1 Range of Added Rapid Dynamic Response (cm) for the Cryosphere Components of Sea-Level Rise Term 2030 2050 2100 Glaciers and ice caps 0­0.5 0­1.4 0­3.7 Greenland 0­1.2 0­3.3 0­8.4 Antarctica 0­0.8 0­2.3 0­5.9 Total cryosphere 0­2.5 0­7.0 0­18.0 TABLE E.2 Effect of Rapid Dynamic Response and Uncertainty on Future Cumulative Sea-Level Rise 2030 2050 2100 Base values: Projected sea-level rise Z with uncertainty dZ (cm)
From page 194...
... 2030 135 81 2050 280 180 2100 827 584 50 Percent Slowdown in Greenland Dynamic Discharge 2030 128 76 2050 273 168 2100 774 535 Percent Change 2030 -5% -6% 2050 -3% -7% 2100 -6% -8% Decreases in Dynamic Discharge EFFECT OF SEA-LEVEL FINGERPRINT To test the effect of decreased dynamic discharge, The influence of melting from Alaska, Greenland, the projected output of the Greenland Ice Sheet was and Antarctica on regional sea level was described in reduced by 25 percent from its projected base value and "Sea-Level Fingerprints of Modern Land Ice Change" all other cryosphere terms were left unchanged. The in Chapter 4.
From page 195...
... , s is the fingerprint scale factor, k =1,2,3 is the set of source locations (Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica) , p = 1,2,3 is the set of destination locations (north coast, central coast, south coast)


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