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Pages 1-8

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From page 1...
... Projections of global and deformational effects of land ice mass changes, and and local sea-level rise for 2030, 2050, and 2100 are tectonics along the coast. The comparative importance based on model results and data extrapolations, as of these factors determines whether local sea level is described below.
From page 2...
... estimated that ice melt from rates and a lower (corrected) contribution from thermal glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets contributed about expansion, land ice is currently the largest contributor 40 percent of the observed sea-level rise for 1961­2003 to global sea-level rise.
From page 3...
... South of Cape Mendocino, California, the Pacific and North American plates are sliding past one Factors That Affect Northeast Pacific Ocean Levels another along the San Andreas Fault Zone, creating Along the west coast of the United States, climate relatively little vertical land motion along the coast. patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and, Local tectonics, as well as compaction of sediments, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, af- pumping of water or hydrocarbons from subsurface fect winds and ocean circulation, raising local sea level reservoirs, and fluid recharge can produce locally high during warm phases (e.g., El Niño)
From page 4...
... Finally, vertical land motion was ice component was extrapolated using the best avail- projected using continuous GPS measurements for two able compilations of ice mass accumulation and loss tectonically distinct areas: Cascadia, where the coastline (mass balance) , which extend from 1960 to 2005 for is generally rising, and the San Andreas region, where glaciers and ice caps, and from 1992 to 2010 for the the coastline is generally subsiding.
From page 5...
... . MTJ = Mendocino Triple Junction, where the San Andreas Fault meets the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
From page 6...
... 10­143 cm by 2100. Major sources of uncertainty in the regional projections are related to assumptions about fu- SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STORMINESS ture ice losses and a constant rate of vertical land motion over the projection period.
From page 7...
... For example, a to wave attack, they prevent beaches from migrat ing model using the committee's sea-level projections pre- landward and will eventually be overwhelmed by seadicts that the incidence of extreme high water events level rise. (1.4 m above historical mean sea level)


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