Earth Science and Applications from Space A Midterm Assessment of NASA's Implementation of the Decadal Survey (2012) / Chapter Skim
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called for a renewal of the national commitment to a program of Earth observations in which attention to securing practical benefits for humankind plays an equal role with the quest to acquire new knowledge about the Earth system.2 The decadal survey recommended a balanced interdisciplinary program that would observe the atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial biosphere, and solid Earth and the interactions between these Earth system components to advance understanding of how the system functions for the benefit of both science and society. NASA responded positively to the decadal survey and its recommendations and began implementing most of them immediately after the survey's release.
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has significantly reduced the scope of the nation's future operational environmental satellite series, omitting observational capabilities assumed by the decadal survey to be part of NOAA's future capability and failing to implement the three new missions recommended for NOAA implementation by the survey (the Operational GPS Radio Occultation Mission, the Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission, and the NOAA portion of CLARREO)
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With respect to cost growth, the committee found that decadal survey missions have thus far not been managed with sufficient consideration of the scope and cost outlined in the 2007 decadal survey in either an absolute or a relative sense. Chapter 4 offers recommendations to establish and manage mission costs.
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Shown in pink is an "optimistic scenario" based on the Climate-Centric Architecture put forth to leverage anticipated augmented funding to support administration priorities that makes the following assumptions: GRACE-FO launches in 2016, PACE launches in 2019, ASCENDS launches in 2020, SWOT launches in 2020, EV-2 launches in 2017, SAGE-3 instrument launches in 2014, OCO-3 instrument launches in 2015, and EV-I instruments are launched every year starting in 2017 (plans are for EV-I instruments to be delivered for integration yearly; this assumes they also launch yearly)
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Further, recognizing that survey-derived cost estimates are by necessity very approximate and that subsequent, more detailed analyses may determine that all of the desired science objectives of a par ticular mission cannot be achieved at the estimated cost, NASA's ESD should interpret the 2007 decadal survey's estimates of mission costs as an ex • pression of the relative level of investment that the survey's authoring committee believed appropriate to advance the intended science and should apportion funds accordingly, even if all desired science objectives for the mission might not be achieved. To coordinate decisions regarding mission technical capabilities, cost, and schedule in the context of overarching Earth system science and applications objectives, the committee also recommends that NASA's ESD should establish a cross-mission Earth system science and engineering team to • advise NASA on execution of the broad suite of decadal survey missions within the interdisci plinary context advocated by the 2007 decadal survey.
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The decadal survey recommended that "the Office of Science and Technology Policy, in collaboration with the relevant agencies and in consultation with the scientific community, should develop and implement a plan for achieving and sustaining global Earth observations. This plan should recognize the complexity of differing agency roles, responsibilities, and capabilities as well as the lessons from the implementation of the Landsat, EOS, and NPOESS programs."10,11 Despite this and other subsequent calls from the community for this national strategy, only a preliminary plan has been outlined.12 A more complete plan for achieving and sustaining global Earth observations remains to be presented or funded.
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STATUS OF PROGRAM ELEMENTS IN NASA'S EARTH SCIENCE PROGRAM In its assessment of NASA's Earth science program, the committee examined the major individual programmatic elements within NASA's ESD and also considered the overall program's effectiveness in realizing the objectives of the 2007 decadal survey.14 In particular, the committee reviewed the following program elements and also commented on NASA's Climate Continuity missions. The program elements described in this summary are elaborated on in Chapter 2, where they are listed in the same order as they are here: • Extended missions -- missions whose operations have been extended beyond their nominal lifetime; • Missions in the pre-decadal survey queue -- missions that the decadal survey assumed would be launched as precursors to the decadal survey missions; • Decadal survey missions -- new missions recommended by the 2007 decadal survey; • Climate Continuity missions; • Earth Venture missions -- a class of smaller missions recommended by the decadal survey; • Applied Sciences Program; A full listing of all the findings and recommendations in the 2007 decadal survey, as well as responses to each of those from 14 NASA in 2009 and updated responses presented to the committee in April 2011, is available in Appendix E
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Although the committee was encouraged by ESD's incorporation of the priorities of the decadal survey into its 2010 report, the committee is concerned that in a static or shrinking budget environment there is tension between the need to continue successful Earth science measurements and the need for timely implementation of decadal survey missions. This problem is further compounded by the lack of an interagency framework for a sustained global Earth observing system.
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Finding: Aligned with the intent of the 2007 decadal survey, NASA's Applied Sciences Program has begun to engage applied researchers and governmental (federal and state) operational users on some decadal survey mission science definition and applications teams and to conduct research to better understand the value of these applications.
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for open ocean biogeochemistry LIST Land surface topography for 2016-2020 None Formulation (Lidar Surface Topography) landslide hazards and water runoff (Pre-Phase A)
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The GRACE Follow-on Mission, a climate continuity mission called for in NASA's June 2010 climate-centric architecture report, will f provide many of the observations envisioned by the 2007 decadal survey for GRACE-II. Suborbital Program NASA's suborbital program was in decline for almost a decade, but following the release of the decadal survey in 2007, it has made a significant rebound with almost a doubling of financial support for its airborne program.
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ESTO has funded more than 70 new, competitively selected projects that support each of the decadal survey missions to varying degrees. Furthermore, the recent ESTO solicitation for advanced information system technologies was partnered with, and partially funded by, ESD's Applied Sciences Program to help ensure the transition into operations of technologically matured information systems through applied science demonstrations and pathfinders.
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LOOKING AHEAD: BEYOND 2020 In preparation for the next decadal survey, the committee offers in Chapter 5 a summary of "lessons learned" that are derived from its evaluation of implementation of the current decadal survey programs. In particular, regardless of how future NASA Earth science programs evolve, the committee concluded that: 1.
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14 EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE 3. The community will need to give more thought to balancing costs with science objectives and priorities.
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