Earth Science and Applications from Space A Midterm Assessment of NASA's Implementation of the Decadal Survey (2012) / Chapter Skim
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3 Challenges to Implementation of Decadal Survey Priorities
3 Challenges to Implementation of Decadal Survey Priorities
Pages 43-55
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From page 43... ...
The release of the decadal survey in early 2007 and a positive response to the recommendations by the administration and Congress generated optimism that the threatened collapse might be averted. However, the loss of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)
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From page 44... ...
The resulting delay in implementing the planned and recommended Earth observation missions, coupled with the currently predicted mission end dates for many operating missions, has led to a projected rapid net decrease in total NASA Earth science missions. Figure 3.2 is an updated version of a similar chart of mission and instrument trends that was produced by the 2007 decadal survey.
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From page 45... ...
Earth science program, as evidenced by the European Space Agency's threat to not launch its Sentinel satellites unless it receives the funding to keep them operational beyond 2014.6 The committee is concerned that overruns in other NASA science divisions might begin to further impact the already stressed NASA Earth science budget. Just as the research and analysis program funds are fenced off from other aspects of the NASA Earth science budget to prevent Earth science mission overruns from threatening the overall health of the program, so also the committee hopes that NASA's Earth science program can be protected from overruns by non-Earth science missions.
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From page 46... ...
Shown in pink is an "optimistic scenario" based on the Climate-Centric Architecture put forth to leverage anticipated augmented funding to support administration priorities that makes the following assumptions: GRACE-FO launches in 2016, PACE launches in 2019, ASCENDS launches in 2020, SWOT launches in 2020, EV-2 launches in 2017, SAGE-3 instrument launches in 2014, OCO-3 instrument launches in 2015, and EV-I instruments are launched every year starting in 2017 (plans are for EV-I instruments to be delivered for integration yearly; this assumes they also launch yearly)
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From page 47... ...
Nevertheless, the unofficial cost estimates for CLARREO and DESDynI remain considerably above the decadal survey's rough estimate. This change is discussed in some detail in National Research Council, Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space Science 10 Missions, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2010.
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From page 48... ...
or accommodate the excess performance and associated cost of the Atlas V.16 Compounding this situation, there is increased commercial sector emphasis on higher-performance launch vehicles, with commensurate higher prices, which at present has resulted in fewer opportunities for NASA Earth science missions to obtain access to space. Decreasing launch rates exacerbate a tendency for missions in development to grow in size and complexity as longer development times, higher overall mission costs, and fewer overall missions increase community expectations for the few missions that do make it to space.
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From page 49... ...
Eventually, NASA decided that it could not afford to maintain the capability to launch Delta IIs from both the East and the West coasts and had planned to stop using Delta IIs entirely. More recently, there have been ongoing discussions about NASA providing access to the last five remaining Delta IIs as a gap filler between the situation today, including recognition of the two recent Taurus XL failures carrying the NASA Earth science missions Orbiting Carbon Observatory and Glory, and where NASA expects to be 2 to 3 years from now after SpaceX's Falcon-9 and Orbital Sciences Corporation's Taurus II are certified in accordance with NASA requirements.
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The recent loss of two NASA Earth science missions due to launch vehicle failures, however, underscores the urgency of addressing the need. Recommendation: NASA should seek to ensure the availability of a highly reliable, affordable medium-class launch capability.
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program and the initiation of the more modest Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) to meet civilian needs for weather and climate-related data; • Launch vehicle failures resulting in the loss of the OCO and Glory satellites; • Termination of plans for improved, or even continued, geosynchronous temperature and moisture soundings over the United States for severe weather "nowcasting" and forecasting; and • Budget shortfalls and the inability of NOAA to transition demonstrably valuable research observations to operational status as in the case of ocean vector winds and Global Positioning System radio occultation, as well as to honor international commitments.
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From page 52... ...
The 2007 decadal survey recommended that "the Office of Science and Technology Policy, in collaboration with the relevant agencies and in consultation with the science community, should develop and implement a plan for achieving and sustaining global Earth observations. This plan should recognize the complexity of differing agency roles, responsibilities, and capabilities as well as the lessons from the implementation of the Landsat, EOS, and NPOESS programs."30 This same recommendation was echoed in a 2008 follow-on report, Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft, which further explored in its Chapter 4 the elements needed for a long-term climate strategy.31 A more complete plan for achieving and sustaining global Earth observations, as called for in the 2007 decadal survey and the 2008 NRC follow-on report, remains to be presented or funded.
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From page 53... ...
The statement of task for the decadal survey stated, "The committee will also give particular attention to strategies for NOAA to 33 evolve current capabilities while meeting operational needs to collect, archive, and disseminate high quality data products related to weather, atmosphere, oceans, land, and the near-space environment" (National Research Council, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, 2007, p.
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From page 54... ...
Based on the review provided in Appendix D, the committee found as follows: Finding: NOAA's capability to implement the assumed baseline and the recommended program of the 2007 decadal survey has been greatly diminished by budget shortfalls; cost overruns and delays, especially those associated with the NPOESS program prior to its restructuring in 2010 to become the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) ; and by sensor descopes and sensor eliminations on both NPOESS and the Geostationary Orbit Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R)
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From page 55... ...
Deep Space Climate Observatory The Earth-viewing instruments of DSCOVR were not identified as a decadal survey (DSCOVR) priority; however, the survey noted the important use of the DSCOVR spacecraft bus as a platform for space weather instruments at L1.
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