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Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas (2012) / Chapter Skim
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7 Evaluation of Economic Modeling
Pages 63-68

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From page 63...
... The change in economic welfare is determined by adding the changes in returns to producer capital and management, consumer surplus, indemnification costs, changes in regional non-agricultural expenditure, and government non-indemnification costs, including surveillance, destruction, and mitigation. Compared with the 2010 SSRA, the updated analysis relies on an updated baseline with solutions for 40 quarters versus 20 quarters.
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From page 64...
... INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION PROVIDED TO VERIFY RESULTS The quality of the estimates of economic impacts depends on input from the North American Animal Disease Spread Model, correct operation of the economic models, and decisions on scenario design. The magnitudes of livestock depopulation are estimated in the epidemic modeling.
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From page 65...
... PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL ANALYSIS The partial equilibrium model includes livestock products, animals, and major crops at a national level. In response to supply disruptions and reductions in domestic and export demands, the partial equilibrium model determines the quarterly time path of changes in market prices, quantities, and measures of economic welfare.
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From page 66...
... REGIONAL MODEL ANALYSIS Regional modeling determines non-agricultural changes in economic activity in the 7 states experiencing an outbreak. The regional analysis is an important component because it captures economic impacts on sectors within the 7-state region that are excluded from the partial equilibrium model.
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From page 67...
... Government costs that would have been incurred regardless should be excluded, and only additional costs incurred by government should be included; otherwise, the estimated government non-indemnification costs that are reported are higher than the actual additional costs incurred. SUMMARY The economic modeling approaches used in the uSSRA are frameworks that, if used properly, can address the economic impacts of an FMD outbreak that results from a breach of containment at the NBAF.
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Key Terms

  • partial equilibrium
  • regional model
  • economic welfare
  • economic impacts
  • supply shocks

  • livestock products
  • economic modeling
  • supply reductions
  • domestic demand
  • crop producers

  • total economic
  • demand shocks
  • additional costs
  • epidemic modeling
  • consumer response

  • modeling approaches
  • regional analysis
  • demand reductions
  • market prices
  • vaccinated animals

  • model analysis
  • government payments
  • crop prices
  • supply chain
  • consumer surplus

  • government costs
  • costs incurred
  • model captures
  • text incorrectly
  • librium model


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