Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Congress subsequently directed DHS to conduct a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) for the NBAF, instructed the National Research Council (NRC)
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. The scope for both the 2010 SSRA and the 2012 uSSRA addressed accidental release of pathogens from the NBAF in Manhattan, Kansas, and excluded terrorist acts and malicious threats from its risk assessments.
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The number of facilities comparable with the NBAF is small, so there is little empirical validation of the risk estimates. However, because a pathogen release from the NBAF could have devastating agricultural, economic, and public health consequences, a risk assessment that reaches inappropriate conclusions could have substantial repercussions.
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Finding 3: The uSSRA misinterprets and misapplies some risk methods, which have implications for the entire risk assessment. The uSSRA adopts some risk assessment methods that are in line with current prac tice, including the application of event tree analysis and other methods of quantitative probabilistic risk assessment.
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It is impossible to determine whether the scientific literature and other information used to support risk assessment assumptions have been thoroughly reviewed and evaluated. Many parameter estimates depend on outdated refer ences or on only a single reference.
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There was no indication from DHS or USDA that the necessary science-based capabilities noted by the previous committee (see Finding 7 of 2010 NRC report Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the Department of Homeland Secu rity's Planned National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas) would be implemented for FMD surveillance and response.
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LIMITED APPLICABILITY OF THE UPDATED SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT For any risk assessment, results apply only when the assumptions upon which they are based are consistent with practice. The uSSRA makes key assumptions about the physical design of the facility, maintenance and operation, and implementation of mitigation strategies.
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the misapplication of methods used to assess risk, (2) the failure to make clear whether and how the evidence used to support risk assessment assumptions had been thoroughly reviewed and adequately evaluated, (3)
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