A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling (2012) / Chapter Skim
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9 Strategy for Operational Climate Modeling and Data Distribution
9 Strategy for Operational Climate Modeling and Data Distribution
Pages 163-172
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From page 163... ...
. In contrast to the relative youth of climate prediction, the demand for weather forecast information in the United States officially dates to the 1870s when a national weather service was called for by Congress during the Grant Administration.
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From page 164... ...
They encourage the participating model development groups to conduct a series of numerical climate change simulations that conform to a prescribed protocol, with standardized outputs placed in a distributed quasipublic archive. These simulations are increasingly used not only by IPCC and the research community but by a broad range of users as source material for assessments of climate variability and change and as inputs to other models specialized to particular applications.
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From page 165... ...
There is a desire within the research community to migrate experimental climate prediction models into operational use (e.g., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] Climate Test Bed effort to build a multimodel ensemble [NOAA, 2011]
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From page 166... ...
Interactions between model developers and other communities of researchers, practitioners, and decision makers are beginning to be encouraged; for example, the Community Earth System Model project recently added a working group on societal dimensions.3 Finding 9.2: The current collection of efforts for research in climate model development is not well positioned to perform operational climate modeling. 2 Individualsand groups interested in applying climate model outputs to the management of the societal effects of climate change.
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From page 167... ...
A number of private companies successfully sell climate information that depends on climate models. Examples include Prescient Weather, Ltd.,5 Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc.,6 Risk Management 4 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/ (accessed October 11, 2012)
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From page 168... ...
There is precedent for this, for example, in how the National Weather Service interacts with the private sector. As described in Chapter 10, standardized model outputs from the leading international climate models are routinely combined through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
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From page 169... ...
. 14 http://olex.openlogic.com (accessed October 11, 2012)
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From page 170... ...
A strategy for enabling a more rapid and effective transition from research to operations that can take best advantage of recent research advances and model developments in the academic community will require more sophisticated interactions among climate model developers, climate simulators, data assimilation experts, and climate analysts. This strategy should include a closer alignment of the goals and expectations of the research and development community with the goals and expectations of the operational prediction community and changes in the rewards system that recognize the value of contributions to operational climate prediction.
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From page 171... ...
Recommendation 9.1: To better address user needs for short-range climate predictions, the U.S. and international modeling communities should continue to push toward a stronger operational component for prediction of seasonal climate and regular experimental simulation of climate change and variability on decadal time scales.
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