Disaster Resilience A National Imperative (2012) / Chapter Skim
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2 The Foundation for Building a Resilient Nation: Understanding, Managing, and Reducing Disaster Risks
2 The Foundation for Building a Resilient Nation: Understanding, Managing, and Reducing Disaster Risks
Pages 25-66
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From page 25... ...
[We] need to work to change the dynamic that the areas of town that are most affordable are also the areas facing greater hydrological, geological and ecological risks." Citizen from King County, Washington, 2011 2 The Foundation for Building a Resilient Nation: Understanding, Managing, and Reducing Disaster Risks Understanding, managing, and reducing disaster risks provide a foundation for building resilience to disasters.
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From page 26... ...
. Hazard refers to the likelihood and characteristics of the occurrence of a natural process or phenomenon that can produce damaging impacts (e.g., severe ground shaking, wind speeds, or flood inundation depths)
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From page 27... ...
Within the emergency management community, the terms are used interchangeably to describe certain mitigation measures. Although the report is consistent in its use of these terms and not outside the norm, nonstructural mitigation has a very specific meaning in engineering circles (it only refers to contents and other building elements not related to structural strength)
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From page 28... ...
Lastly, consequences may be mitigated by such measures as insurance, continuity, and recovery plans by businesses and governments, and actions by the state and community such as well-enforced building codes and land-use planning. These measures, put into place either individually or in concert with one another, can greatly reduce the potential losses and facilitate a much speedier recovery from future disaster events, thereby contributing to increasing resilience.
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From page 29... ...
In the future, emergency managers may need to become more strategic in their thinking about disasters in order to help communities respond to the risks they face. The role of the emergency manager necessitates a high degree of technical competence, but is increasingly evolving to include the roles of a manager and a policy advisor who oversee community-wide programs to address risk in all phases of the emergency management cycle.
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FIGURE 2.2 Continuous and reinforcing process of disaster risk management as a foundation for building resilient communities. Central to the risk management process is the collective evaluation by the community members -- including individuals, emergency managers, governing officials, the private sector, and NGOs -- of community goals, values, and objectives for the risk management strategy and for community resilience.
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From page 31... ...
and identifies some of the principles of emergency management that relate to the role of emergency managers as practitioners of risk management: Emergency managers generally employ risk management principles such as hazard identification and risk analysis to identify priorities, allocate resources and use resources effectively.
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The largest single tornado in the state in a 30-year period, an EF-5,a struck the town of Parkersburg, Iowa, 85 miles northwest of Cedar Rapids on May 25 and caused millions of dollars in damage, eight deaths, and the mobilization of significant state and local emergency response resources. In early June, as the effects of the tornadoes were still being evaluated and absorbed, the residents and decision makers of Cedar Rapids were monitoring information about the potential for major flooding of the Cedar River which passes through the city center.
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From page 33... ...
at more than 31 feet, it was well above what would characterize a "500-year" flood event.b Hazard identification is more than just historical experience with hazard events; it includes the identification of potential sources of disaster to the community and the likelihood and expected impacts of future events. Cedar Rapids has multiple sources of natural hazards: floods, severe weather (thunderstorms and hail; severe winter weather)
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From page 34... ...
The USGS's probabilistic hazard is used to develop outputs of earthquake ground motion for designing buildings and structures that accord, for example, with the 2012 International Building Code.4 For example, most building codes in the United States are based on the USGS's estimate of the ground motion level with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. This corresponds to ground motions with a 475-year return period, or the highest shaking level expected from any nearby earthquake source that is likely to occur over the next 475 years.5 Probabilistic hazard is also the input used in risk assessment to compute probable losses at different return periods and is thus used to determine insurance premiums for relatively low likelihood but highimpact events.
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Also, new technologies are making possible increasingly higher resolution and more sophisticated and detailed hazard identification maps such as the characterization and monitoring of wildfire activity (Figure 2.3)
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Forest Service, Remote Sensing Application Center. Risk Assessment The risk assessment process combines the physical characteristics of potential hazards obtained through hazard identification with data on exposure, vulnerability, and mitigation measures.
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.6 Catastrophe models such as HAZUS present an opportunity for community leaders, regulators, and emergency management agencies to design risk management strategies by comparing potential losses with and without mitigation measures in place for specific scenarios, so called deterministic (as opposed to probabilistic) risk.
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From page 38... ...
; those who provide services to those affected by the disaster during the recovery period (e.g., emergency managers, fire, police, hospitals, and NGOs) ; and the research community that provides analysis of risk, hazards, and disasters.
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THE FOUNDATION FOR BUILDING A RESILIENT NATION 39 TABLE 2.1 Responsibilities, Challenges, and Opportunities of Key Interacting Parties in Risk Management Interested Responsibility Challenges Opportunities Party Federal Provides, and in No comprehensive Stemming the government some cases or coordinated growth in outlay operates, approach to of post-disaster protection disaster risk recovery funds structures for management communities; supports NFIP; provides disaster assistance State and local Ensure public Reluctance to limit Reaping benefits governments health and safety development; of multiple in use of land, difficulty in ecosystem zoning, land-use controlling land services by planning, use on privately investing and enforcement of owned land strengthening building codes, natural defenses development of risk management strategies Homeowners Take action to May be unaware of Creating demand and businesses reduce or underestimate for disasterin hazard-prone vulnerability and the hazards that resistant or areas increase they face retrofitted resilience of structures that property have increased value Emergency Oversee More focused on Reorientation of managers emergency immediate disaster training and roles preparedness, response than risk to balance focus response, management toward recovery, and prevention and mitigation overall disaster activities resilience Construction Incorporate Actions may New and real estate resilience into increase cost and opportunities in designs; inform reduce likelihood niche market clients of risk of sales
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From page 40... ...
are risk-linked financial tools that can be used by insurance companies to cover the potential risk of a major catastrophe and the premiums that would have to be paid by the insurance company if the disaster or catastrophe was to occur. Insurance companies are required by state law to have capital on hand to cover routine losses, but for higher losses, they may buy reinsurance or issue cat bonds.
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From page 41... ...
Communicating risk information is of fundamental importance but such information is not always successfully transmitted to decision makers who most need it. By reframing information on the likelihood of an extreme event occurring, it may capture the attention of decision makers rather than being below the threshold level of concern.
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From page 42... ...
FIGURE. One of the homes on the neighborhood on the west side of the Cedar River in Cedar Rapids that was inundated by floodwaters.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND MEASURES Risk management strategies often represent the integration of structural and nonstructural measures designed to reduce vulnerability and mitigate consequences. In some cases, the risk management strategy consists primarily of structural (construction-related)
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From page 44... ...
Table 2.2 highlights typical actors, time frames, and potential benefits and adverse impacts of the structural and nonstructural measures and tools discussed below. BOX 2.7 Determining Costs and Benefits of Different Management Strategies Once the hazard is identified and assessed, decision makers can determine what strategies they will employ to reduce the risk the community faces.
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From page 45... ...
FIGURE 2.4 Structural Flood Mitigation Measures, clockwise from top left: Mississippi River levee; Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River in Washington; a floodwall that protects the city Winona, Minnesota, along the Mississippi River; and the Bonnet Carré Spillway, a floodway that diverts water from the Mississippi River into Lake Ponchartrain to reduce the flow passing New Orleans. Sources: USACE (Mississippi River Levee)
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From page 46... ...
Disaster-resistant construction and retrofitting existing building stock A significant opportunity to reduce loss in future events and thus increase resilience is to strengthen and/or retrofit the nation's existing building stock. In the case of hurricanes, the new construction and retrofitting is relatively inexpensive and can include installation of exterior hurricane shutters 7 http://damsafety.org/newshttp://damsafety.org/news/?
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From page 47... ...
. Public officials may exacerbate the problem by not enforcing building codes and/or imposing zoning restrictions.
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residents can purchase flood insurance through the federally run NFIP when the communities in which they live agree to participate in the program. The program requires the community to adopt the flood insurance rate maps and to adopt and enforce floodplain management ordinances and control land-use development in the 100-year floodplain.
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From page 49... ...
Policy makers will be able to use BOX 2.8 Property Transfer Tax Program, Berkeley, California The Property Transfer Tax Program in Berkeley has provided funds for seismically retrofitting a huge number of properties in the city. In 1992, voters approved an additional 0.5 percent transfer tax on top of the existing 1 percent tax on all real estate transactions, with the tax paid equally by buyer and seller.
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has made forecasting more complex. Better and timelier data on the systemic risks also affect the lightly regulated but highly leveraged financial products such as catastrophe bonds.
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. Box 2.10 discusses strategies for modifying the NFIP so that it encourages property owners to undertake mitigation measures in advance of a disaster so that their community is more resilient with respect to flooding.
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. Then funds from the cat bond are provided to the insurer to cover a portion of the insurer's claims payments.10 BOX 2.10 Making Flood Insurance Work As of April 30, 2012, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
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From page 53... ...
For such reasons, people may not be enthusiastic about flood mapping even though more accurate flood maps can help individuals and communities assess flood risk. In cases where socially vulnerable members of a community may have difficulty paying insurance premiums as a result of new flood maps, insurance vouchers (similar in concept to food stamps)
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From page 54... ...
Levees, dams, USACE, USGS, 1-2 years, evaluation Flood risk reduction Belief that levee will fully and FEMA; state, and decision; protect against all floods floodways county, and local 3-50 years, governments; construction researchers; private sector Disaster- Federal On the order of Mitigation against extreme Cost of the measures, resistant government, local weeks to years weather events, other natural belief that energy construction officials, depending on hazards such as earthquakes dissipation systems will and researchers, private measures employed and wildfires, floods, and fully protect against all retrofitting of sector (risk and size of structure hurricanes hazards existing management firms building stock and engineering firms) , professional organizations, individuals Hazard- Engineering and Similar to or slightly Mitigation against a variety of Cost may be higher than conscious construction firms longer time to build natural hazards; reduce losses with non-hazard("smart")
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From page 55... ...
Natural Communities, 1-4 years: evaluation Protect structures built behind May prevent building new defenses regions, states, and decision; from 3 them by reducing impacts of structures on protected federal government years to many disasters (wind, water, fire) areas; requires long-term lifetimes perspective
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From page 56... ...
Risk mapping FEMA, USACE, Weeks to several Communication of the hazard Overreliance on accuracy NOAA, NASA, years depending upon risk to the community of maps USFS, USGS in quality and conjunction with availability of data state and local and map area covered authorities; engineering firms Zoning Local and state Immediate Prohibits building or rebuilding May prevent lucrative ordinances governments in hazard-prone locations construction of homes or businesses in specific areas Hazard and Private sector; Immediate if adopted Allows buyers to identify May hinder sales or lower vulnerability federal, state, and freely by the private potential hazards or property values in areas disclosure local governments sector; several years construction known to be where hazards are or more if new vulnerable to such hazards revealed or for vulnerable legislation is required before the purchase of a home construction types to implement or business; increases the value of disaster-resistant buildings Economic and Federal, state, and May be quickly Subsidies, grants, fines, or tax Negative incentives tax incentives local governments adopted and rebates can provide incentives (fines, penalties) may not implemented if to homeowners and businesses be acceptable to residents political will, to install hazard mitigation or businesses; positive competing demands measures incentives (subsidies, for resources, and grants, rebates)
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From page 57... ...
Forest Service, and USGS = U.S. Geological Survey.
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From page 58... ...
Combining well-enforced building codes and insurance with structural reinforcements or other measures can take on special significance to protect the community or region against physical and financial losses should structural measures (e.g., dams and levees, natural defenses) fail to provide full protection against the hazard.
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From page 59... ...
The nation relies on a number of essential land-based and space-based hazard monitoring networks for short-term forecasting and early warning, as well as for understanding the physical processes leading to natural disasters and their physical impacts. Both the sensors and the communication networks supporting them require continual maintenance as well as upgrades to take full advantage of technological advances in sensor capabilities and communications.
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Breakthroughs in hazard and risk assessment will come from better constraints on the key parameters in the models that govern the systems responsible for disaster impacts, such as the role of clouds in climate models, the three-dimensional effects of basins on strong ground shaking in earthquakes, and improved estimates of seasonal and diurnal changes in populations in hazardous areas. Research is also needed on the role and function of natural defenses against natural disasters (e.g., the capacity of coastal wetlands to help absorb storm surge, the role of swamps along rivers for floodwater storage)
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From page 61... ...
These tools include structural (construction-related) measures such as levees, dams, disasterresistant construction, and well-enforced building codes, and nonstructural (nonconstruction-related)
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From page 62... ...
The roles and responsibilities of the different actors are described in more detail in Chapters 5 and 6. One underutilized tool is investment in risk reduction through insurance and other financial instruments to enhance resilience.
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From page 63... ...
2006. Assessing the Adequacy of the National Flood Insurance Program's 1 Percent Flood Standard.
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2011. National Flood Insurance Program: Background, Challenges, and Financial Status.
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From page 65... ...
Natural Hazards Earth System Science 9:1149 1159.
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