Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border (2013) / Chapter Skim
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In particular, to evaluate whether heightened enforcement efforts have contributed to reducing the flow of undocumented migrants, it is critical to estimate the number of border-crossing attempts during the same period for which apprehensions data are available. With these issues in mind, DHS charged the National Research Council (NRC)
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The panel began by enumerating the major attributes for evaluating surveys for this purpose: the nature of the target population and related issues of sample size and survey design, the frequency with which surveys are conducted and the speed with which data are made publicly available, and the types of questions that are asked about migration. Since international migration is a relatively rare event, it is important for a general survey to have a sufficiently large sample in order to obtain reliable information on
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The panel believes that, although DHS could benefit from engaging with entities in Mexico that collect survey data relevant to the analysis of unauthorized migration, it should not invest substantial resources in making changes to existing surveys or in implementing a new survey for the purpose that is the subject of this study.
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The panel was charged with reviewing administrative data collected by DHS, and in order to better inform our analysis and discussion, we formally requested that DHS provide us with apprehensions data from the USBP enforcement database. The panel made its request with the understanding that any data given to us would need to be made publicly available, in accordance with the institutional rules governing NRC studies.
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Given the gaps and limitations in survey and administrative data, the panel believes that a necessary approach to estimating the flow of undocumented migrants consists in developing models that can combine survey, administrative, and other types of disaggregated data. These modeling approaches could include conventional statistical regression and other models and incorporate spatiotemporal aspects of the data, but they might also include less-standard simulation-based approaches such as agent-based models.
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• onclusion 4.1: Existing surveys are subject to a variety of limita C tions having to do with target populations and associated issues of sample size and survey design, the frequency with which surveys are conducted and the speed with which data are made publicly available, and the types of questions that are asked about migra tion. Therefore, although survey data are critical for understand ing patterns and general trends in unauthorized migration, they will not be sufficient by themselves to meet the needs of DHS for estimating unauthorized migration flows across the U.S.–Mexico border.
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• ecommendation 5-2: DHS should sponsor and conduct research R on modeling approaches for estimating the flows of unauthorized migrants across the U.S.–Mexico border. • onclusion 5.2: DHS would greatly benefit from making the ad C ministrative data from its immigration enforcement databases publicly available for research use, as that would allow DHS to engage with the broader scientific community to develop, apply, and continually refine specific modeling approaches.
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