Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border (2013) / Chapter Skim
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4 Migration-Relevant Surveys in the United States and Mexico: Usefulness and Limitations
4 Migration-Relevant Surveys in the United States and Mexico: Usefulness and Limitations
Pages 61-72
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From page 61... ...
TARGET POPULATION A probability survey is critical to drawing inferences to a population much larger than the number of individuals actually observed (i.e., questioned)
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From page 62... ...
International migration is a relatively rare event, and it is important for a general survey to have a sample that is sufficiently large to obtain reliable information on 1 In the ENOE 2010, for example, an average of 3.5 percent of households were declared hogares mudados, or households who moved out between rounds. The reasons may be residential change in the same locality, internal migration, or international migration; we do not have precise information on the nature of the geographic mobility associated with the hogares mudados.
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From page 63... ...
The number of households that would need to be interviewed is equal to the target sample size divided by the product of the response rate and the household out-migration rate.2 It is possible, in principle, to reduce sample sizes by oversampling in traditional Mexican "sending regions" or by otherwise using stratification or clustering based on what is known about the migration process to date. However, as discussed in Chapter 2, the sampling design would have to be adaptive to changing patterns of population migration, and strategies for oversampling could all too easily become out of date.
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From page 64... ...
border. Assuming that the survey had information about crossing location -- which ENOE currently does not -- the survey design would have to capture flows from points of origin throughout Mexico to each of the geographic areas of interest at the U.S.–Mexico border.
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From page 65... ...
Response rates associated with a survey sponsored by a foreign government (such as the United States) and its immigration enforcement agency would likely be far lower than those currently associated with national surveys such as ENOE; the probability of erroneous response would also be higher.
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From page 66... ...
Second, the additional companion sample collected in the United States introduces additional selection bias, as it is unclear who volunteers their relatives for the U.S.-based survey and how they might differ from other Mexican emigrants. Therefore, inferences cannot be drawn from the MMP results to the larger population of communities.
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From page 67... ...
ENOE is conducted on a quarterly basis and can be used to look at short-term population movements occurring within the 15 months when its five interviews are conducted, thereby providing a snapshot of seasonality and yearly changes in migration patterns. EMIF-N (along with the CPS)
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From page 68... ...
It is also important to ensure the "reliability" of survey instruments, which has to do with the degree to which a survey instrument elicits similar responses from different individuals under similar conditions.5 Such improvements could prove useful to researchers and others, and they would be welcome by the panel -- as would, for example, improvements in the timeliness of EMIF-N. But from the perspective of estimating flows on an annual or quarterly basis, such survey modifications would still take place against the backdrop, as discussed above, of larger limitations and complexities relating to sample size and survey design.
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From page 69... ...
CONCLUSION DHS appears to have multiple goals associated with obtaining information on unauthorized migration flows across the U.S.–Mexico border. Annual estimates of flows and apprehension probabilities would allow DHS to better evaluate (and report on)
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From page 70... ...
The financial costs and administrative complexity associated with any such survey would be multiplied by several factors if DHS wanted to obtain estimates by geographic subregion. A survey such as EMIF-N that uses a time-location design and focuses directly on migrant populations holds greater promise (setting aside the panel's concerns regarding coverage error and accuracy of sampling weights)
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From page 71... ...
These challenges are only magnified by the complex and dynamic nature of the underlying migration process. The next chapter explores the usefulness and limitations of another approach: the use of DHS administrative data as they relate to the estimation of unauthorized migration flows across the U.S.–Mexico border.
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