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From page 1... ... populations) , natural resource industries, As tasked by the National Aeronautics fishing communities, commercial shippers, and Space Administration, the Office of marine tourism operators, national security Naval Research, and the intelligence organizations, regulatory agencies, and the community, the committee convened a BOX S.1 KEY SCIENCE QUESTIONS � What are the implications of the recent dramatic shifts in the Arctic from predominantly multiyear ice to first-year ice, and how will the associated complexities of this regime shift affect sea ice variability and predictability? Read the entire page →
From page 2... ... The committee concludes system; that there is a need for this dialogue to be � Understanding how the recent regime sustained well beyond the confines of the shift in the Arctic sea ice cover from workshop format. A committed and predominantly multiyear to first-year deliberately integrative approach, founded ice affects the processes governing the on a sustained and coordinated conversation atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system, the among the user, modeling, and observation power of statistical prediction communities, is necessary to: methods, the validity of current numerical models and their � Identify and address key gaps in our parameterizations, and observational fundamental understanding of the requirements, including instrument Arctic environment and its connection design; and to the global climate system; � Clearly defining the needs of the � Balance high-priority stakeholder growing number of stakeholders, many needs against realistic predictive with additional and more sophisticated capabilities; requirements, and balancing these � Foster coordinated support of this needs against realistic predictive work within the private and public capabilities. Read the entire page →
From page 3... ... knowledge of the initial ice-ocean state, although admittedly little information exists In light of these challenges and while on what constitutes an "adequate recognizing that there are limitations in knowledge." Challenges on the seasonal current modeling and observational timescales include: techniques, the committee offers possible strategies to significantly enhance our � Understanding the relative strengths and understanding and predictions of the Arctic weaknesses of the different existing sea ice cover over seasonal to decadal approaches used to generate seasonal ice timescales: forecasts (statistical algorithms, coupled ice-ocean models driven by prescribed � A systematic evaluation of the existing atmospheric forcing, and coupled seasonal prediction capabilities to atmosphere-ocean-ice models) ; establish baseline expectations for � Establishing specific key observational predictive power and to set the stage data requirements necessary for defining for advances in predictive capability; the initial ice-ocean state for seasonal sea � A highly coordinated and integrated ice predictions; and process-based study of seasonal sea ice � Providing access to observational data at focused on understanding the impact fast turnaround times. Read the entire page →
From page 4... ... our collective ability to model development needs and the realize and effectively communicate useful expansion of models to include predictive power. The rate of advancement additional capabilities and variables of in sea ice predictions will likely be interest to stakeholders; and determined by the extent to which the broad � Create a centralized information hub user, modeling, and observational that facilitates the timely access to communities can achieve a sustained, observational and modeling results integrative approach to refining and and encourages sustained implementing these and other strategies. Read the entire page →

From page 1...

... populations) , natural resource industries, As tasked by the National Aeronautics fishing communities, commercial shippers, and Space Administration, the Office of marine tourism operators, national security Naval Research, and the intelligence organizations, regulatory agencies, and the community, the committee convened a BOX S.1 KEY SCIENCE QUESTIONS � What are the implications of the recent dramatic shifts in the Arctic from predominantly multiyear ice to first-year ice, and how will the associated complexities of this regime shift affect sea ice variability and predictability?

Read the entire page →

From page 2...

... The committee concludes system; that there is a need for this dialogue to be � Understanding how the recent regime sustained well beyond the confines of the shift in the Arctic sea ice cover from workshop format. A committed and predominantly multiyear to first-year deliberately integrative approach, founded ice affects the processes governing the on a sustained and coordinated conversation atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system, the among the user, modeling, and observation power of statistical prediction communities, is necessary to: methods, the validity of current numerical models and their � Identify and address key gaps in our parameterizations, and observational fundamental understanding of the requirements, including instrument Arctic environment and its connection design; and to the global climate system; � Clearly defining the needs of the � Balance high-priority stakeholder growing number of stakeholders, many needs against realistic predictive with additional and more sophisticated capabilities; requirements, and balancing these � Foster coordinated support of this needs against realistic predictive work within the private and public capabilities.

Read the entire page →

From page 3...

... knowledge of the initial ice-ocean state, although admittedly little information exists In light of these challenges and while on what constitutes an "adequate recognizing that there are limitations in knowledge." Challenges on the seasonal current modeling and observational timescales include: techniques, the committee offers possible strategies to significantly enhance our � Understanding the relative strengths and understanding and predictions of the Arctic weaknesses of the different existing sea ice cover over seasonal to decadal approaches used to generate seasonal ice timescales: forecasts (statistical algorithms, coupled ice-ocean models driven by prescribed � A systematic evaluation of the existing atmospheric forcing, and coupled seasonal prediction capabilities to atmosphere-ocean-ice models) ; establish baseline expectations for � Establishing specific key observational predictive power and to set the stage data requirements necessary for defining for advances in predictive capability; the initial ice-ocean state for seasonal sea � A highly coordinated and integrated ice predictions; and process-based study of seasonal sea ice � Providing access to observational data at focused on understanding the impact fast turnaround times.

Read the entire page →

From page 4...

... our collective ability to model development needs and the realize and effectively communicate useful expansion of models to include predictive power. The rate of advancement additional capabilities and variables of in sea ice predictions will likely be interest to stakeholders; and determined by the extent to which the broad � Create a centralized information hub user, modeling, and observational that facilitates the timely access to communities can achieve a sustained, observational and modeling results integrative approach to refining and and encourages sustained implementing these and other strategies.

Read the entire page →

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Summary Pages 1-4

Summary
Pages 1-4